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Post by peppy on Jan 19, 2018 7:51:21 GMT -5
To increase the pps, MNKD should license Technosphere to Canopy Growth Corporation (WEED.TO) for $1 per year. Just to hitch its wagon to the cannabis train, and enjoy the ride. Heck, refund Canopy the $1 and throw in some shares if that is what it takes to get Canopy to go along. RLS has already partnered for THC / CBD delivery. Would be great to see some movement there. Sessions has me concerned here in the moment. The caveat is the weed industry has cash and legislators need cash for their re-election campaigns. Money pouring into the campaigns from the cannabis industry. (states). Meanwhile Canada set for legalization in July. Oh, Canada, Oh Canada, Lala la.
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Post by jred on Jan 19, 2018 11:49:56 GMT -5
I think, imho, the catalyst(s) could be any one or more of the following: 1. Announcement that mnkd met guidance (even if due to accounting change for scripts sent but not yet sold by retail)with new fuidance for next Q.2. Filing of NDA for THP 3. RLS Update that is positive? 4. Expanded Insurance coverage 5. Guidance to break-even for Mnkd. 6. Oversees news about one or more distribution partners 7. One drop announcement for retail cash script program 8. Domestic partnership 9. Stat Study results (not likely until ADA, but might be used for discussions with potential partner) 10. Updates on various trials such as pediatric study enrollment 11. More specific information on how commercials are working with expectations for increased scripts. I am not saying any one of the above listed items will happen but they are all items mentioned by MC at the Fitzgerald Conference last September and since then as well. Therefore, some if not all should be making progress and could possibly provide the good news that is the impetus for a increase in pps. The accounting change starts 2018. It has no bearing on meeting 2017 2H guidance. I agree the accounting change starts in 2018, but I am not as clear what basis management is going to use in reporting whether or not they met guidance. And agreed the easiest way would be to just look to revenue on reported financials. But comments from Steven Binder during the Q3 conference call weren't totally clear to me. Specifically in his comments during slide 10 of the presentation he reaffirms their belief in meeting the low end of projections. In his reasons, he refers to increased visibility into the retail inventory channel to refine recognized versus deferred revenue and a trend of growing wholesale shipments. May be nothing, but made me think there is a possibility of using some sort of hybrid method for meeting the revenue bar.
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Post by boca1girl on Jan 19, 2018 11:54:59 GMT -5
The accounting change starts 2018. It has no bearing on meeting 2017 2H guidance. I agree the accounting change starts in 2018, but I am not as clear what basis management is going to use in reporting whether or not they met guidance. And agreed the easiest way would be to just look to revenue on reported financials. But comments from Steven Binder during the Q3 conference call weren't totally clear to me. Specifically in his comments during slide 10 of the presentation he reaffirms their belief in meeting the low end of projections. In his reasons, he refers to increased visibility into the retail inventory channel to refine recognized versus deferred revenue and a trend of growing wholesale shipments. May be nothing, but made me think there is a possibility of using some sort of hybrid method for meeting the revenue bar. I would be very concerned if they tried to explain away the miss (if they did miss) with smoke and mirrors about the new accounting changes in 2018. Reminds me of tech companies who report GAAP and non-GAAP earnings.
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Post by peppy on Jan 19, 2018 11:57:27 GMT -5
what is the miss? any one have the symphony data added up? what is needed to meet?
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Post by straightly on Jan 19, 2018 18:03:54 GMT -5
I agree the accounting change starts in 2018, but I am not as clear what basis management is going to use in reporting whether or not they met guidance. And agreed the easiest way would be to just look to revenue on reported financials. But comments from Steven Binder during the Q3 conference call weren't totally clear to me. Specifically in his comments during slide 10 of the presentation he reaffirms their belief in meeting the low end of projections. In his reasons, he refers to increased visibility into the retail inventory channel to refine recognized versus deferred revenue and a trend of growing wholesale shipments. May be nothing, but made me think there is a possibility of using some sort of hybrid method for meeting the revenue bar. I would be very concerned if they tried to explain away the miss (if they did miss) with smoke and mirrors about the new accounting changes in 2018. Reminds me of tech companies who report GAAP and non-GAAP earnings. Since day one of my investment career (or slide), everybody is telling me the tech companies' non-GAAP earnings number is enemy #1, and Amazon is at the head of the pack. So all my eggs are broken with the like of GE. Thank goodness that woking for these non-GAAP company did lay these eggs. GAAP is wonderful for something and terrible for others. If MNKD needs a better way to align its number with its productivity, i.e. selling Afrezza, being it more accurate or timely, I say bring it on.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 19, 2018 20:04:11 GMT -5
what is the miss? any one have the symphony data added up? what is needed to meet? 3rd quarter symphony revenue was 3,889,000 which translated to 2,000,000 in actual revenue for MNKD. An estimated 7,778,000 symphony revenue would be needed to get the last 4,000,000 of guidance revenue in the 4th quarter. 4th quarter symphony revenue was 6,229,000 which i estimate is 3.2 Million in revenue for the 4th quarter and most likely 5.2million for the 2nd half of 2017 give or take a 100 grand. To make 4 million in revenue from 6.229,000 symphony revenue the gross margin would need to increase from 51% in the 3rd quarter to 64%. While gross margins should be higher, I don't think they was increase that much
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 21, 2018 7:41:31 GMT -5
Poster from SO comments:
I'm beginning to think the 25 million covenant is a non event. I work in commercial underwriting and covenants are waived all the time. I think how the debt was handled this week increases chances to 70% the covenants are waived or drastically reduced. the only question is what Deerfield will want in return. if the $25 million covenant is waived how far is runway extended? 3rd quarter 2018?
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