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SEC
Jan 19, 2018 15:37:05 GMT -5
Post by hellodolly on Jan 19, 2018 15:37:05 GMT -5
I agree that all of those things COULD have an impact, but they haven't to date. MNKD's only substantive partnership since the Sanofi termination was for Brazil, and that didn't provide a single penny in up-front money that would enable MNKD to pay down debt or use for company operations. It's easy to ponder what could have positive impact for the company. The possibilities are limitless. Instead, I prefer to focus on what HAS occurred in the past, and use that as somewhat of an indicator as to what will likely happen in the future. Using that formula, I expect only scripts to have any real impact on the bottom line. Ultimately, it's sales that matter and nothing else. "Ultimately, it's sales that matter and nothing else." - Exact-amundo Really abundantly obvious. I just didn't think that was an issue in the macro sense because that is the end result of my other comments. I didn't want to put the cart before the horse. Have a great weekend.
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SEC
Jan 19, 2018 15:51:25 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 15:51:25 GMT -5
"I think it's the only option they have, since they obviously don't have cash to pay the debt, but I don't expect the market to react favorably to the news. Paying your debts by diluting your shareholders isn't typically a strategy that the Street looks upon favorably."
#1- Um, you're forgetting that MNKD could still generate other sources of revenue to pay back their debt. Partner buy-ins, for example. #2- This is not a long term solution but a quick fix. It's not a solid corporate long term strategy in any playbook, it comes from the short list. #3- While the market may react unfavorably, that too is only temporary. #4- Scripts are not the ONLY thing that can have a positive impact. Announcements of better insurance coverage, partnerships, cash infused buy-ins, positive news from ADA, etc are also additional sources that can have a positive impact.
Just my humble thoughts and opinions. - Best regards.
I agree that all of those things COULD have an impact, but they haven't to date. MNKD's only substantive partnership since the Sanofi termination was for Brazil, and that didn't provide a single penny in up-front money that would enable MNKD to pay down debt or use for company operations. It's easy to ponder what could have positive impact for the company. The possibilities are limitless. Instead, I prefer to focus on what HAS occurred in the past, and use that as somewhat of an indicator as to what will likely happen in the future. Using that formula, I expect only scripts to have any real impact on the bottom line. Ultimately, it's sales that matter and nothing else. Same could be said for negatives... hence being in shareholder purgatory.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 19, 2018 16:35:30 GMT -5
Sales royalties in a region as populated as South America can quickly eclipse an upfront payment. Certainly China and India are desired markets where sales royalties can be staggering. I've read a number of Agreements over the years where a lower upfront payment is negotiated in exchange for a higher royalty. This helps de-risk the initial investment of the sales & distribution partners for drugs whose marketability is unproven. Afrezza, to date, appears to be within this category.
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SEC
Jan 19, 2018 17:33:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by straightly on Jan 19, 2018 17:33:14 GMT -5
While what you say is true that the MannKind-Biomm deal (for marketing Afrezza in Brazil) did not bring in upfront $ that can be used for debt obligations or operations, it's also a fact that Biomm has agreed to pick up all the costs associated with registering Afrezza with ANVISA in Brazil. I'm not certain what the cost of registration is, but at least MannKind doesn't have to pay anything to get their product into that country.
It's very uncommon that a partnership deal without upfront payment. Better to look for a partner in China instead. A lot of private capital there looking for biotech investment opportunities and are willing to pay upfront. And China gov. is hungry to show it is "leading" in the world. So what are we doing in China if at all? When our scale is in $Bs, we are talking only to world leader, at least national leaders, such like Sanofi. Now we are talking $60m and there will be literally TONS of capable players whose inspiration can be as big as MNKD's. That is my hope for MNKD in 2018.
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 19, 2018 18:28:18 GMT -5
This is why MNKD needed an updated share count. Looks like they're going to be paying all their debt by issuing new shares. I think it's the only option they have, since they obviously don't have cash to pay the debt, but I don't expect the market to react favorably to the news. Paying your debts by diluting your shareholders isn't typically a strategy that the Street looks upon favorably. Scripts need to pick up in a big way. That will likely be the only thing that has any positive impact. I expect Wall Street to shrug it off. ~2.5% dilution for a small biotech with large potential. Nice shot Tarheel! All net!
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