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Post by babaoriley on Jun 30, 2014 14:49:36 GMT -5
Didn't I read right here that approval was priced in? Yep, advice like that can cost thousands at retail, but here, you can get it for free! Slushy and others apparently were pretty much on the money. Now, maybe the price will eventually move up on partnership hopes.
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Post by BD on Jun 30, 2014 14:59:07 GMT -5
It may have been more exciting if the PPS had remained at 6 since the adcom and then jumped to 11 today, but we've all made more-or-less the same profits since then--and shorts have the same losses...
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Post by spiro on Jun 30, 2014 15:03:46 GMT -5
Their can be only one logical explanation for today's close. The FDA couldn't possibly have approved Afrezza on Friday.
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Post by rak5555 on Jun 30, 2014 15:18:21 GMT -5
Thanks to Hakan giving 6-8 week partner window otherwise the partner announcement would be getting priced into the PPS following approval and we'd be at 15 right now.
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Post by alcc on Jun 30, 2014 15:36:22 GMT -5
Didn't I read right here that approval was priced in? Yep, advice like that can cost thousands at retail, but here, you can get it for free! Slushy and others apparently were pretty much on the money. Now, maybe the price will eventually move up on partnership hopes. Okay, time for me to eat crow. Approval was indeed priced in! So, why was I so wrong? The answer: It's all my -- and your -- fault. Question: how many of you bought more today? My guess is few to none. Same here -- mea culpa. Think about it, if folks like us who think we know the most about the company and have been bullish since forever did not step forward and load up post approval, then by definition the approval was priced in! Put another way, for the stock to move up we need a new crop of buyers. That will take time. Even though we think the stock is the most visible and important stock in the world, the truth is it is a thinly followed, obscure stock. The news has to get out. But that takes time. Also, from personal experience, institutional buyers are very slow to build a position in a thinly followed company like this (otoh, they are very fast to unload in event of bad news: slow in, fast out) That day will come. But we need patience. As Graham (I think) said, in the short run the market is a voting machine; in the long run it's a weighing machine. For now, the vote from us bulls is: hold, presumably because we already loaded up. As to who did the bought and sold 50M shares today, I have no clue. But clearly the buy and sell side were equally matched.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jun 30, 2014 16:03:40 GMT -5
Alcc, I like to think I have been right on most of the stances I take with mnkd. However, I did not think approval was priced in. I was wrong on that one, so I must join you.
It might just take a little while, but most of us took a nice position pretty cheaply. When the smoke clear and things finally settle down, we will be right, little shorty (wink) will be wrong and lose.
Forgive my grammar:
Us, Al & the gang will be fine. So will the diabetics who can get Afrezza in their hands.
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Post by biotec on Jun 30, 2014 16:21:38 GMT -5
Very disappointing day, I've waited 4 years for FDA approval and all we get is a 96 cent pop.
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Post by alcc on Jun 30, 2014 17:00:43 GMT -5
biotec,
What I am saying is, if you and I did not buy more today, that probably explains the lack of upward momentum. Otoh, I am amazed and impressed by the orderly changing of hands of 50M shares. Never seen that before post a big announcement.
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Post by 1 percenter on Jun 30, 2014 17:01:41 GMT -5
Maybe it didn't jump because the huge jump will come with partnership or buyout.
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Post by goyocafe on Jun 30, 2014 17:11:45 GMT -5
I hate to rain even more on your parade, but it really wasn't a 96 cent bump, but more like a 26 cent hicup, considering the stock was trading around 10.70 on Friday before the flash crash.
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Post by savzak on Jun 30, 2014 17:19:45 GMT -5
alcc, I added Friday right before the close and again today after digesting the label over the weekend. In all, I increased my position by a little over 10 percent. I was equally amazed at the organized trading today.
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Post by BD on Jun 30, 2014 17:27:30 GMT -5
I'm neither surprised nor particularly disappointed in the price action today. There's been a nice run-up, and while early approval is wonderful, you know the shorts have been and will continue to be scrambling to mess with the PPS (and longs' minds) to the best of their considerably devious abilities. Let 'em. I'm just fine letting them do all the worrying while I just contentedly think about where the PPS is going to be after the partnership is announced. After all, we aren't the ones facing unbounded future losses. P.S. I added a few token shares and calls today as well, just doing my part to help prop up the stock...
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Post by alcc on Jun 30, 2014 18:15:30 GMT -5
Glad to hear some of you averaged up. It is the right thing to do. It's not for lack of conviction, but somehow, for me, having bought at a lower price point creates a mental roadblock. I did add at $5. I should add more at this point.
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Post by slushy on Jun 30, 2014 19:05:53 GMT -5
We know that the approval was basically priced into MNKD going into approval, and the label came out about as good as we could realistically hope for. There was enough ammo in the label for the bears to attack for awhile, but there's no reason this stock should tumble hard in the near future. There may be some short term volatility, but we should be well rewarded within a few months with news of a partnership or even sooner if MNKD announces applications in other countries. News of MNKD ramping up to be a global player will be a catalyst for speculation about revenue projections, rumors about who could be the partner because they have a strong presence in X country, and solidify the investor's trust that management fully believes in the product and is full steam ahead.
I know everyone was hoping for a short squeeze years in the making that would catapult the price to $15+... but that wasn't going to happen today after an AdCom so strong that even AF considered FDA approval inevitable. But we're in virgin territory now... FDA approval is a done deal and now we're looking to actually put rubber to the road. I think the speculation is going to be nearly all in our favor going forward, and we have a very finite amount of time to see it come to fruition (about 8 weeks to be exact). For anyone still on the fence I'd recommend jumping in now.
Full disclosure: I sold nearly all my shares last week prior to the FDA approval, rebought in on Friday right after it bottomed out, and bought more today because I believe we are on the right side of this roller coaster.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jun 30, 2014 19:54:27 GMT -5
Slushy I couldn't agree more! Buckle up because this going to be a fun ride.
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