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Post by jpg on Oct 30, 2014 16:34:58 GMT -5
Period of Report 2014-06-30 Filing Date Changed 2014-08-14 Effectiveness Date 2014-08-14 So as of the end of June (or mid August?) Tourbillion was short 30 million $ (2.75 million shares) and is probably short the same amount or more now. I am also guessing he has not cashed out since if he did he would move on to something else in his 'Bloomberg add'. When do we get to see the next filling? I wonder who else has large short positions? Is there a way of knowing who has the biggest short positions (like we can find out who has the largest long positions)? I would presume that is another asymmetrical information flaw that benefits shorts... JPG
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Post by pmikeks on Oct 30, 2014 17:41:09 GMT -5
From what I saw on comments to the SA article, Krap (the correct spelling;) isn't very good at running a hedge fund. One of the comments stated his fund is up about 2%? If that's true somebody would have to be a moron to trust "Krap with any of their money. No rationalization or anything, He just says Mnkd is 'way over valued and should go down to a dollar'. He spends too much time reading AF and watching Cramer, two other idiots who don't have a clue why they say the things they do.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 31, 2014 9:56:08 GMT -5
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Post by brentie on Oct 31, 2014 12:28:49 GMT -5
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Post by goyocafe on Oct 31, 2014 17:03:11 GMT -5
Just the fact that they state that Sanofi will keep 65 cents of ever dollar of revenue shows how little time they spent understanding the PROFIT sharing deal with MNKD. Let alone mention the fact that the details of this deal are far from being fully understood by anyone on the street.
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Post by ashiwi on Nov 1, 2014 7:22:20 GMT -5
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Post by daduke38 on Nov 3, 2014 14:08:52 GMT -5
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Post by brentie on Nov 3, 2014 14:17:44 GMT -5
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Post by mannmade on Nov 3, 2014 14:51:43 GMT -5
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Post by jpg on Nov 3, 2014 15:00:18 GMT -5
Do keep in mind that Dr. Skyler is talking next to the CEO of a company (Dexcom) that makes continuous glucose monitors. I will presume he is a paid consultant for them. Saying Afrezza is a 'take and forget' insulin that doesn't need frequent glucose monitoring wouldn't do well in this context... I really do think that Afrezza will be the safest insulin to use with patients who aren't particularly interested in monitoring their glucose levels but this being said I also believe that what Dr. Skyler is saying in this video makes a lot of sense and does not contradict the 'take and forget' statement I just made. The future to good diabetic management will need frequent monitoring to frequently adjust glucose levels. Before Afrezza there was no easy (and safe) way to do this though so continuous monitoring was kind of pointless really. IMO Afrezza and continuous glucose monitoring will create a positive feedback loop which will end up with much much better diabetic management. Again in my opinion a group of motivated patents/ physicians who will embrace continuous monitoring and Afrezza titration will have the potential change the rules of diabetic management as they learn, publish and share their experience with other diabetic care providers/ patients. This is so highly predictable as to be in my mind a given 'future fact' as to where this field is going. I have never been a 'device guy' but if I had more time I would look long and hard at continuous glucose monitoring companies for potential investment opportunities. JPG
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Post by brentie on Nov 3, 2014 21:43:47 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 3, 2014 22:07:05 GMT -5
He seems to be belaboring what seems a pretty simple arrangement. MNKD does the manufacturing using their cash, the expenses of manufacturing are carried as inventory until such time that SNY buys the inventory (at COGS) and then this cost becomes part of the expenses of the collaboration agreement. I guess there is the one question as to whether the $175M credit line can only be used to the extent that MNKD has to pay SNY 35% of losses incurred initially, or whether MNKD could draw on this line to, for instance, buy a new fill machine that would be capital equipment cost that would get wrapped into manufacturing COGS rather than specified directly as an expense shared as collaboration expense. It doesn't seem like that is enough money to warrant making such a big deal over it. Clarity of writing does not seem this guys strong point.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 4, 2014 13:50:28 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 4, 2014 14:33:15 GMT -5
Yes... I remember so clearly how AF was touting Viehbacher as the key to his prediction of Afrezza being a success, so of course now I'm going to believe him claiming the loss of Viehbacher is meaningful. (lizard sarcasm)
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Post by otherottawaguy on Nov 4, 2014 15:19:24 GMT -5
Just so this guy stops getting a penny a click:
Diabetes Analyst: Sanofi CEO's Firing May Spell Trouble for MannKind Afrezza Partnership
By: Adam Feuerstein Follow | 11/04/14 - 01:40 PM EST
Stocks in this article: MNKDSNY
MannKind (MNKD) used its quarterly conference call Monday night to tamp down any concerns about the firing of Sanofi (SNY) CEO Chris Viehbacher causing problems for the Afrezza diabetes partnership ahead of the expected first quarter 2015 launch.
Not everyone shares MannKind's confidence. Diabetic Investor's David Kliff, a longtime Afrezza skeptic, believes Viehbacher was the driving force behind the MannKind partnership and pushed the deal against the wishes of others at Sanofi who didn't want anything to do with the inhaled insulin device. Now that Viehbacher is out at Sanofi, Kliff says the Afrezza commercial launch might be in trouble even before it starts.
Kliff, writing today to his subscribers:
With Viehbacher now gone and Sanofi expected to bring in a change agent with diabetes experience it's quite possible that this new person could reexamine the deal and decide it's just not worth the effort, not to mention the capital investment needed. A critical date here is November 20 when the company holds their analyst day, a day which according to MannKind management Afrezza will be big part of, the star of the show so to speak. Many observers believe that Sanofi will announce Viehbacher's replacement as early as this week. Given the timing of all these events it will be interesting to see if the new person, only in charge a short time, makes the first of several changes and knocks Afrezza out if it's starring role.
Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks
On its conference call last night, MannKind executives responded to questions about Sanofi's commitment to Afrezza post Viehbacher's exit.
"While certainly Viehbacher was a supporter of the Afrezza partnership, I have to say that the entire Sanofi organization has embraced this opportunity with much enthusiasm as we've seen in the U.S. and in France and in Germany. So we are still looking forward to a long and successful partnership. And yes, we have not seen any other impact on that," said MannKind President Hakan Edstrom.
As you'd expect, MannKind used most of the call to discuss steps it and Sanofi were taking to move Afrezza closer to launch early next year.
Kliff isn't buying MannKind's line:
Now for anyone out there who seriously is buying manure that's been spread about Afrezza and how it will become a mega-blockbuster, we suggest they go back and listen to Sanofi's last earnings call. We strongly suggest they pay close attention to the remarks made about insulin pricing. We then suggest they remember that Afrezza isn't cheap to make and all along Al Mann was touting how payors would pay a premium for this product. These are the same payors who have basically forced Sanofi to lower the price or increase rebates for Lantus...
Afrezza won't suffer the same fate as Exubera as it will see some sales. We do however believe that Sanofi could well suffer the same fate as Pfizer and that alone may cause the company, with a new CEO, new Chairman to pull the rug from under this ill-advised partnership before it's too late.
Just something else to watch as Sanofi chooses its next CEO and the Afrezza commercial launch draws closer.
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