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Post by liane on Jan 27, 2015 6:29:51 GMT -5
Very sobering. Surprised she is not on CGM.
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Post by BD on Jan 27, 2015 11:56:58 GMT -5
Yeah, bradleysbest posted it a couple of pages back. But in honor of that completely obnoxious ad that comes up without an apparent "close" button, I'm C/P-ing the text here so nobody else has to suffer that indignity: MNKD: Afrezza Launch Will Propel MannKind StockMNKD stock is still a screaming buy as Afrezza launch nears By John Divine, InvestorPlace Assistant Editor | Jan 23, 2015, 2:00 pm EST MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) stock is primed to take off higher as the much-awaited launch of its inhalable insulin drug, Afrezza, approaches. Mannkind185 MNKD: Afrezza Launch Will Propel MannKind StockMNKD stock and its $2.3 billion market capitalization hang in the balance, as its fate could ultimately hinge on the success of the Afrezza launch. As the launch date approaches, MNKD stock looks like more of a buy than ever. Here’s why: A First Glimpse at AfrezzaAt the moment, MannKind is more or less a one-trick pony. MNKD has also developed a pulmonary drug delivery technology called Technosphere that it hopes to use in future endeavors, but that’s a far longer-term effort. No, right now all eyes are on how the Afrezza launch goes. Less than two months after the FDA’s approval of Afrezza in June 2014, MNKD secured a marketing partnership with pharmaceutical powerhouse Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE:SNY). MannKind — burdened by relatively limited resources after years of R&D spending and no revenue leading up to the FDA approval — needed the reach and influence of Sanofi, who was tasked with marketing and selling the product. SNY paid MNKD $150 million for that right (royalties could go up to $925 million depending on the product’s success), and in return will receive 65% of Afrezza’s profit share. Well, investors will soon get a good idea of just how big that profit share could be. At the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference last week, the company’s new CEO Hakan Edstrom said that the company reached two manufacturing milestones and that Afrezza would launch in the first quarter, as expected. The idea that MNKD is ahead of schedule with its Afrezza delivery gained some credibility on Thursday when StockTwits user OilInWaterRph shared the first photo of Afrezza’s commercial packaging. When pressed on how he got his hands on the product, he said: “Cardinal is my wholesaler. Should be available to anybody that uses them.” In other words, Cardinal Health Inc (NYSE:CAH), a pharmaceutical distribution company, is already shipping the product in preparation for the launch. While it’s great that MannKind seems to be ahead of schedule, what’s better yet for MNKD stock bulls is the short-term and long-term opportunities a product like Afrezza affords. MNKD Stock is Still a Screaming BuyBack in October, I laid out my bull case for MannKind stock, explaining why I saw MNKD as a screaming buy. The scale of the diabetes epidemic in itself was fairly compelling: In October 2013, the WHO estimated that nearly 350 million people worldwide suffer from diabetes. CDC estimates from 2012 peg the number of U.S. adults over age 20 with diabetes at 28.9 million. It’s a sweeping problem, and one that leads to a number of other health issues and even death. On top of that, Afrezza, as a fast-acting inhaled insulin product that’s FDA-approved to treat both type 1 and 2 diabetes, will appeal to many diabetics who loathe having to deal with needles constantly. Consider the fact that Afrezza and its Technosphere technology can fit in your palm, and I’m sold. I still think MNKD stock is a screaming buy. It’s only about 3% higher than it was when I wrote my bullish piece in October. And as an owner of MNKD stock and MNKD call options myself, I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
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Post by brentie on Jan 27, 2015 14:27:07 GMT -5
I'll try again. From the Street, no less. 3 Health Care Stocks Under $10 to Watch: MannKind and More MannKind MannKind (MNKD) , a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutic products for diabetes and cancer in the U.S. This stock is trading up 2.9% to $6.25 in Tuesday's trading session. Tuesday's Range: $6.00-$6.34 52-Week Range: $3.80-$11.48 Tuesday's Volume: 2.49 million Three-Month Average Volume: 4.25 million From a technical perspective, MNKD is counter-trending higher here versus the overall market weakness with decent upside volume flows. This stock recently formed a triple bottom chart pattern, after buyers came in to support the price at $4.96, $5.14 and $5.21. Following that bottom, shares of MNKD have started to spike higher back above its 50-day moving average and into breakout territory above some near-term overhead resistance at $5.94. That move his now quickly pushing shares of MNKD within range of triggering another near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if MNKD manages to clear some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $6.65 to its 200-day moving average of $7.06 with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MNKD as long as it’s trending above its 50-day moving average of $5.67 and then once it takes out those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 4.25 million shares. If that breakout begins soon, then MNKD will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $7.50 to $7.64, or even $8 to $8.50. www.thestreet.com/story/13024668/3/3-health-care-stocks-under-10-to-watch-geron-mannkind-and-more.html
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Post by gomnkd on Jan 27, 2015 15:40:40 GMT -5
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Post by savzak on Jan 27, 2015 15:52:49 GMT -5
Excerpt from the end of the article. Gotta love it:
Nate: One of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned over the years is that it almost always pays to “follow the smart money”… and, in this case, I am more than happy to have my own money invested alongside Al Mann’s $960 million.
Not only do I believe Afrezza has the potential take a serious bite out of the existing mealtime insulin market, but future applications of the Technosphere platform have the potential to be game changers as well.
In addition, with the abnormally large short position that exists in the stock, I believe there is far more upside potential than downside risk in the stock from current price. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that for someone with a three- to five-year time horizon, I believe we’re looking at losing $2-$4 on the downside, if things don’t work out, but making $25-$40 (or more?) on the upside, if things do go our way. I like that set-up a lot.
Honest-to-goodness short squeezes do not come along all that often on Wall Street, but when they do, they can be spectacular indeed. Putting this observation together with my belief that the price action we have seen in MannKind’s stock over the past six months may represent one of the most extreme examples of an “inefficient market” that I have seen in my 26 years of following the biotech sector, and I think it will only take a piece or two of good news to really set this stock on fire.
I consider MNKD a strong buy under $6 and a buy under $9.
Ken: Thank you Nate.
My Take: Nate’s track record alone is reason enough to pay attention to his best idea. I agree with Nate’s arguments for the next 3 to 5 years, but I see Wall Street’s huge short position as an interesting short-term catalyst. After adjusting for Al Mann’s holdings, Wall Street is short over 31% of the shares available to trade! As Nate points out, a large portion of the short position has been there for a long time. Until now, the opinions of Wall Street analysts have been sufficient to influence investors to avoid the stock. From Wall Street’s perspective when your own opinion creates enough doubt to drive a stock down, shorting the stock is a pretty good bet. Things change, however, when there are real facts (such as sales) for investors to consider. As more facts become available, Wall Street analysts are generally at a disadvantage to informed investors such as Nate who have the expertise and track record to make judgement calls about what the facts mean. If Afrezza does better than Exubera (a very low performance bar) the shorts will start closing out their positions. Given the size of the short position as a percentage of the float, it may literally take only take a few pieces of good news to really set this stock on fire.
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Post by liane on Jan 27, 2015 15:58:46 GMT -5
Good finish to an article where the interviewer started with the ghost of Exubera.
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Post by gomnkd on Jan 27, 2015 16:12:53 GMT -5
wow, it's an article that is music to the ears of MNKD longs.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jan 27, 2015 16:15:13 GMT -5
Nate's been along for the ride, the questions were like lobbing up softballs for him to hit out of the park...but in the end they were softballs because it's the truth and he laid it out in plain English...the "soft" launch has begun, I think a lot of us who have been on the ride are almost in a "numb like" state for lack of a better term having been jaded by the ups and downs for so long...so in essence it almost seems like a lot are complacent/guarded again for lack of a better term...the daily price grind higher is a beautiful thing as opposed to those days we would jump .50 only to retrace back...the slow drip up is torture for those short just as the slow drip down was torture for the longs...in other words they question themselves do I wait till it comes back in a few cents, see what happens tomorrow? etc., again it's a beautiful thing when it's working in the RIGHT direction! Speaking of the RIGHT direction may I remind everyone of where ORMP is currently
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Post by alethea on Jan 27, 2015 16:23:30 GMT -5
I love Nate. Let's hope he is as good as his track record as cited by the author!
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Post by ezrasfund on Jan 27, 2015 16:42:14 GMT -5
Great article from Nate and Forbes, but even with such a carefully crafted "interview" they still couldn't get in all of the important facts. Maybe it is not that helpful to dwell on Exubera's problems, but the non-linear dosing; mg to units conversion problems; and residue build-up in the lungs were some that were not mentioned. I guess SNY took the $1B they got for their share of that mess and figured they'd give it to MNKD. House money?
They also didn't have enough space in the article to say that Afrezza lacks the stacking effect of prandial insulins which is a major cause of hypoglycemia,the most important benefit IMO. The FDA review and outlook seems to ignore the fact that when a mild hypo becomes a severe hypo this is not just a quantitative difference but a qualitative one, a difference between life and death.
He did mention the importance of compliance with the prescribed treatment, but I am still upset that the FDA didn't consider this, considering that the major achievement of FDA chief Hamburg's career was a program to increase compliance in TB treatment with dramatic results.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 27, 2015 17:01:27 GMT -5
Rumor that Cramer now says MNKD is a BUY!
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 27, 2015 17:24:11 GMT -5
Rumor that Cramer now says MNKD is a BUY! If Cramer talks about Mannkind as a BUY on his show, that may indeed start the short squeeze. Don't think I've ever participated in one. This could be fun indeed!
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Post by BD on Jan 27, 2015 17:36:42 GMT -5
Being on the right side of a short squeeze is sweet. I've had the pleasure of riding about 3 of 'em in GMCR. Good times.
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Post by ezrasfund on Jan 27, 2015 17:51:30 GMT -5
So how do you know how high it will go, as there are no rational metrics? One thing about lending shares in Schwab's full collateralized program is watching as they dump more cash into my account every time the price ticks up $0.50. At least I get a sense of what the short interest has to endure. The down side is the lower interest, but I know those "non-believers" are paying a lot more.
I am hoping that the change in interest paid and shares available to short will give us a better sense of what is going on, if our colleagues keep us informed. Were you able to follow anything like that with GMCR?
The shorts (and some longs) have made a lot of money on calls that have expired worthless. The rest of the short profit may still be "unrealized" at this point, since I have never believed that they could buy 40-70 million share without moving the price. Maybe it's finally payback time.
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Post by Chris-C on Jan 27, 2015 17:51:48 GMT -5
Many wise market observers have commented that an investor seldom makes a nice return without discomfort. Although the story of Mannkind is far from over, it does feel good when the loudest voices in the room are shouting facts rather than FUD. As a subscriber to Nate's Notes, I have a great deal of respect for Nate Pile. He has been a consistent supporter of this position, and he is as well informed as any observer I have seen. At last, some of the important points about Afrrezza are getting some air time, such as the PK profile, lower risk of hypglycemia, better prandial control and liklihood of reducing the costly long term consequences of uncontrolled hyperglycemia, not to mention a growing global market. I also love that he was able to point out that Afrezza is just the first of many possible therapeutic applications using the Technosphere platform, and that it can be used publicly and discretely. I think that last point alone (convenient, discrete social use) has been vastly under-appreciated, because humans are group animals, and they loathe social disapproval or being cast as "exceptional" in a negative way. This way, if they are insulin dependent, they can participate easily without having to call unwanted attention to themselves. As have others on this board, I've become numb with the incessant drumbeat of negative share price action following good news and upticks. I'm so numb, in fact, that the steady upward momentum has me in a state of suspended disbelief. Could it be, as Nate puts it, that the market is finally becoming more efficient with this investment? Time will tell. Good luck to all (longs).
Chris-C
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