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Post by kc on Jul 24, 2014 13:35:51 GMT -5
Well I guess that only time will tell if we are right or he is right. I am betting on Us being right. That is his or Jim Cramer's message to drive it down fast as new is evidently coming soon. A great set up for a new bear run.
His signal is the 90% decline.
He knows how to move the market so that he and his hedge boys pick up your shares.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 24, 2014 15:10:55 GMT -5
Everybody that slams MNKD by principally chronicling the Exubera story is obviously short on substance or knowledge (not to mention just plain "obviously short"). I'm hoping Matt pointed out that the insulin is quite different than Exubera in more illustrative terms than, "We think it's a much improved, next generation product," but that the author did not care to include those rebuttal comments in the article.
My guess is that a little more shorting was done by Tourbillon in the last couple of days, in anticipation of today's release. Hey, Spiro, that's how the far more clever and effective shorts get out of the mess they're in!!!
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Post by jake10977 on Jul 25, 2014 10:52:55 GMT -5
MannKind Afrezza Partnership News Coming Within Weeks By: Adam Feuerstein Follow| 07/25/14 - 11:30 AM EDT Exactly four weeks have passed since MannKind(MNKD) secured FDA approval for its inhaled insulin device Afrezza. But with no announcement from MannKind executives about a partnership necessary to sell Afrezza, the company's stock is sliding down hill. Mannkind executives may be forced to say something about the state of Afrezza partnership discussions very soon, even if no deal is in place. That's because MannKind must report second-quarter financials before the end of the second week in August. Historically, MannKind reports second-quarter financials in early August. Last year's reporting date was Aug. 9; the year before, it was Aug. 7. MannKind has not announced a date for the upcoming second quarter financials yet, but it must happen by Aug. 15, per SEC reporting rules. If MannKind is close to signing an Afrezza partnership, the company is almost certainly pushing very hard to get that deal closed before it must report second-quarter financials. The alternative is ugly. Holding a conference call in early or middle August with nothing concrete to say about an Afrezza deal would be damaging to MannKind. Investors are growing tired of optimistic partnership talk that goes nowhere. At one point earlier this summer, MannKind (sort of) promised an Afrezza partnership 6-8 weeks after FDA approval. Soon after, MannKind tried to walk back that expectation. Afrezza was approved on June 27, so 6-8 weeks out is Aug. 8 through Aug. 22, which overlaps with the requirement to report second-quarter results. The waiting is hard, but one way or another, we should hear something more definitive from MannKind about an Afrezza deal (or the lack of one) within weeks, at the latest. www.thestreet.com/story/12821570/1/mannkind-afrezza-partnership-news-coming-within-weeks.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
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Post by kc on Jul 25, 2014 12:08:12 GMT -5
Not a pro or con article by Adam Feuerstein. It was a matter of fact. Perhaps a prodding to Management on the status of the deal. My take is that Management will want to make some type of announcement before the earnings release since there is really no earnings to announce. Nothing expected since there is no sales of a product yet.
Let's say they push back that earnnigs announcement past the August 8th date that would drive the market mad! Either up or down. You know that timing is everything and the something will happen or be announced before the Aug 15 date. Personally I hope it's soon than August 8th but what ever date it should be good for all us who are invested long.
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Post by brentie on Jul 25, 2014 13:15:23 GMT -5
MannKind Pharma Gets Hedge Fund Treatment, Traders Rally Defence: MannKind Corporation stock got a jolt in early trading today from hedge fund Tourbillion Capital Partners, which told clients that it expects the company’s stock to fall 90% because its new drug for diabetes is over-hyped. The stock was down 6.83% in midday trading, before recovering slightly by midday to trade around 5.44%. The drug, Afrezza, has been touted by MannKind as the next blockbuster after receiving FDA approval in June. It allows patients to inhale insulin rather than the more painful standard practice of injecting. Tourbillion, which manages $1.2 billion and is led by Jason Karp, a former portfolio manager at SAC, said that the drug will fail in part because earlier attempts have, and because the drug will be more expensive than standard injections. While some investors agree with Karp’s pessimism, the overwhelming majority doubt the credibility of his assessment, expecting MannKind strike a catalyst sales partnership soon. At time of writing, sentiment held at 91% bullish, according to Stocktwits analytics. finance.yahoo.com/news/mannkind-pharma-gets-hedge-fund-172539979.html
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Post by brentie on Jul 25, 2014 13:27:28 GMT -5
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jul 25, 2014 14:58:55 GMT -5
Brentie- been awhile since we have seen the "Muppets Family" from you.
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Post by kc on Jul 25, 2014 15:19:55 GMT -5
Everybody that slams MNKD by principally chronicling the Exubera story is obviously short on substance or knowledge (not to mention just plain "obviously short"). I'm hoping Matt pointed out that the insulin is quite different than Exubera in more illustrative terms than, "We think it's a much improved, next generation product," but that the author did not care to include those rebuttal comments in the article. My guess is that a little more shorting was done by Tourbillon in the last couple of days, in anticipation of today's release. Hey, Spiro, that's how the far more clever and effective shorts get out of the mess they're in!!! All the Hedgies. Like Geo Soros.... They love destroying companies. I bet they are heading to the Hampton's this weekend to discuss who's turn at bat is next to destroy MNKD. I think that they work quietly behind the scene so they try to stay above the SEC. I guess unless they are wearing a wire at the beach.
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Post by seanismorris on Jul 25, 2014 16:43:20 GMT -5
Shorts don't bother me that much...
Of course, I dislike loosing money and being wrong when the shorts are correct.
But, there is a need for shorts in the market. There are ethical shorts (Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, etc.). If a stock is overvalued or a company is mismanaged their research is invaluable to tell the average investor there is a problem.
When I don't like is stock manipulation by the shorts. They may have succeeded in nocking down MNKDs stock today, but they are unable to change the fundamental positive story.
The problem is when an entity (hedge fund, bank) has so much money they can move the market independent of fundamentals. I.e. Banking should always be independent from Investment Banking.
I also dislike High Frequency Trading because it's to close to rigging the markets.
Shorts? Live and let live.
If I'm right, I'll make money irrespective of what they do. They may even make me money inadvertently when they nock down a good stock, and I buy it at a discount.
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Post by daduke38 on Jul 26, 2014 6:59:09 GMT -5
Shorts don't bother me that much... Of course, I dislike loosing money and being wrong when the shorts are correct. But, there is a need for shorts in the market. There are ethical shorts (Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, etc.). If a stock is overvalued or a company is mismanaged their research is invaluable to tell the average investor there is a problem. When I don't like is stock manipulation by the shorts. They may have succeeded in nocking down MNKDs stock today, but they are unable to change the fundamental positive story. The problem is when an entity (hedge fund, bank) has so much money they can move the market independent of fundamentals. I.e. Banking should always be independent from Investment Banking. I also dislike High Frequency Trading because it's to close to rigging the markets. Shorts? Live and let live. If I'm right, I'll make money irrespective of what they do. They may even make me money inadvertently when they nock down a good stock, and I buy it at a discount.
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Post by daduke38 on Jul 26, 2014 7:08:58 GMT -5
Although I don't trust SA as a whole, I do appreciate George Rho. Also, the article they put out yesterday attacking the short thesis from a behavioral science approach was one of the most interesting articles I have read (And not just his take on MNKD specifically) in a long time. Some one posted the link and you can also get it from the Yahoo summary page. For anyone investing in any stock it is worth the 5 minute read! I know I am new to the board, but please trust me on this!
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Post by liane on Jul 26, 2014 8:05:57 GMT -5
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Post by BD on Jul 26, 2014 9:52:54 GMT -5
The latest from Dr. Tran: www.retailinvestor360.com/biotech/453-mannkind-corporation-safe-labeling-incentivized-spirometry-and-experts-votes-of-confidence.html[For many images and references, see the link. -BD] Mannkind Corporation: Safe Labeling, Incentivized Spirometry and Experts Votes of ConfidencePublished: Friday, 25 July 2014 11:31 Written by Doctor Hung V. Tran, MD, MS Disclosure: I am a MannKind investor as well as an everyday investor and a patient advocate. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) is a small company based in Valencia, California, poised to launch its FDA approved drug, Afrezza, as treatment indication for both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Despite near unanimous backing from experts at the Advisory Committee (ADCOM) and the medical community, Mr. Market is still pessimistic on the company. The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, described Mr. Market as a bipolar or fickle character, who is constantly shouting quotes that are not reflective an issue's intrinsic value. During the July 24, 2014 trading session, MannKind shares on sale for as low as $ 8.70 represented an irresistible bargain for intelligent and opportunistic investors. Even its peak SP of $9.57 was still a significant discount, because the company is worth $38 per share based on highly accurate integrated research. The illustrious Peter Lynch would have describe this situation as a "back up the truck" opportunity as MannKind is poised to capture the vastly expanding $29 billion insulin market. Also, the company has a novel drug delivery platform called Technosphere that could be leveraged to develop other lyophilized powdered blockbusters. Yesterday, Mr. Market shouted his previous prejudice toward Afrezza labeling by asserting that potential lungs issues and spirometry would deter physicians from prescribing the drug. While it's easy to get the impression that Afrezza is toxic due to the warnings and medical jargon, my experience as an MD and my familiarity with drug labels reveal that Afrezza's label has a similar or better safety profile than similar as well as competing drugs like Novolog and Humalog. When a patient inhales any new drug it usually causes an initial discomfort reflected by the lungs natural responses like coughing or, in rare cases, bronchospasm. Readers should also note that nearly all medicines potentially cause irritation and allergy symptoms in certain patients, and Afrezza is no exception. Needless to say, as the lungs get used to Afrezza over time those symptoms should abate. Similar to all drugs, Afrezza's label warnings are cautionary measures or disclaimers so-to-speak. Albuterol's label below shows many warnings – headache, dizziness, tachycardia, pharyngitis, and rhinitis – that are difficult to understand due to medical jargon as well as an impression that Albuterol is harmful or even potentially fatal. Nonetheless, clinicians know that Albuterol is a very good drug. Despite potential risks associated with all drugs, clinicians would still prescribe these medicines if they demonstrate favorable overall benefits versus risks. Hence, MannKind shareholders can rest assured that Afrezza label warnings are predominantly cautionary measures, similar to disclaimer documents one has to sign when registering to use a legitimate website. Despite Mr. Market's flawed assertions and inaccurate forecasting, readers should note that Mr. Market is not any less intelligent, but rather the picture reaching Wall Street became distorted, lacking accurate assessments of Afrezza by clinicians from Main Street clinics and hospitals. In addition, prescribing decisions might come down to a clinician's personal preferences, especially when there are alternative treatments like Novolog and Humalog. Nonetheless, Afrezza's unparalleled patients’ convenience, superior kinetics in mimicking healthy pancreas and freedom from needles and stigma should prompt patients to request their doctors to prescribe the drug. Hence, providers should prescribe Afrezza in response, because it is prudent to take into account the patient's preferences in promoting good doctor-patient fiduciary relationships. Pertaining to Mr. Market's assertion that Afrezza's label calling for a lung function study called spirometry once, at the initial visit, and every six months thereafter would doom Afrezza's prospect was again misperceived. Spirometry might appear to those unfamiliar with the test as cumbersome, but to those who administered and/or had the test performed, I confidently voice that spirometry is easy to perform with minimal discomfort to the patients, taking as little as only several minutes, and notably allowing clinicians to bill for the test. Facing increasing working hours and decreasing reimbursement from Medicare and insurance companies, clinicians would indeed be inclined to prescribe Afrezza en-masse or "capturing the incoming tide at the flood." Based on the American Academy of Family Physicians or AAFP and Medicare billing schedule, a spirometry could be billed for $40, which adds significant incomes for average office visits. The use of the spirometer and Afrezza makes it economically sensible, because with Afrezza's improved patient compliance, the drug would substantially reduce the striking $245 billion annual spending to treat diabetic complications. As a rule-of-thumb, it is cost effective to focus on preventative care such as diabetes education, supporting primary care providers such as the family physician, NP, internist and PA in order to retain talents as these healthcare providers play critical roles in nipping chronic diseases such as diabetes, obesity, or cancers in the bud. In analyzing the profitability of using spirometry, a premium device only costs around $1500 while procuring $40 revenues or more per office visit, thus, yielding a significant profit margin. Given spirometry is done routinely in clinics to evaluate symptoms of shortness of breath, asthma, or COPD, physicians should already own and have mastered spirometry. Moreover, physicians would also enjoy having peace of mind in knowing that Afrezza improves the clinic's revenues and quality of care, while reducing US healthcare spending. While analysts voice misperceived public opinion, it is irresponsible journalism to stake negative/unsubstantiated claims, even after having been provided with abundant data analysis from experts like the ADCOM physicians, scientists, industry leaders, and patient advocates. Further, a hedge fund only profits little from shorting MannKind while taking high risks. Moreover, shorting would limit MannKind's ability to raise capital, thus, deterring partnerships or a buyout and ultimately robbing millions of patients with diabetes of Afrezza, as well as honest working Americans' investments. It's understandable to short a fraudulent company like Enron but shorting MannKind is not socially responsible or conscientious, as MannKind is a firm lead by an exceptional philanthropist, Dr. Alfred E. Mann. His inventions and donations had saved millions of lives. To short MannKind at this stage is similar to hindering Doctor Mann's efforts to deliver his ultimate gift, Afrezza, to millions of patients suffering from diabetes, many of those being kids. In assessing stock shorting strictly from an investing perspective, it is unwise to short MannKind, as short firms tend to underperform the market and competing longs. Though I do not have resources like the famed investor activist, Carl Icahn, to "take a flame thrower to this place!" I maximize investor activism (and patients' advocacy) through my pen by casting my faith in ultimate triumph through diligence, data analysis, patience, and a conviction to hold on to MannKind shares as well as to purchase more shares during market hiccups. The bottom line is that Afrezza is a highly promising drug, poised to gain complete dominance as MannKind executes its commercialization strategies. Shares are currently trading at a deep discount to their true valuation. Mr. Market's arguments regarding Afrezza's labeling, though reasonable at first glance prove themselves to be false under comprehensive/data analysis. Moreover, Afrezza has highly favorable therapeutic benefits versus risks. Additionally, the required label necessitating spirometry rather incentivizes clinicians to prescribe Afrezza en-mass. Also, there should not be any issue with pulmonary hyperplasia, and the lung cancer risk is overblown, as there was no evidence indicating a predominant IGF-R in the lung epithelium. Despite the highly favorable odds that MannKind is a prudent investment, neither any one nor I can make such a promise for investing research is an imperfect science. "Integrity, ingenuity, essence, and essentially all else follows."
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 26, 2014 16:16:28 GMT -5
daduke, thanks for posting the article and thanks to liane for re-posting. A very thorough and well written academic discussion about shorts and longs and the differences between them. Good analysis of the positives of the longs' position. And mainly stuff that has been said on this board many times - basically, a few good TV ad spots and everyone will be demanding their doctor put them on Afrezza. We are bombarded daily with ads for drugs with massive side effect warnings, and so what. However, as I stressed above, it is an academic discussion. I would be so happy to go into a cage match with a short within the parameters of that article. But that's not the way the game is played on Wall Street. MNKD longs are genuine, the shorts are not (the article implies there are - that's just not close to being right). And the shorts have not been genuine for quite a while, especially with events like the release of the results of the two trials last August, the Deerfield deal, the Greenhill hire, the unbelievable AdCom, and, finally, the FDA approval with a decent label - the bona fides of the shorts comes into more and more question. The shorts realize they are going to have to fabricate and lie, outright lie, about any and all matters to win enough battles to make up for the fact that for now, they are big underdogs in the war. And, guess what - the shorts are doing just that. They have both knives and guns; longs were told to show up for a fist fight, and naively did. By the time Afrezza starts to sell like hotcakes, the shorts will have at worst broken even. Like I've said, just wait for the kind of stuff that will come out immediately after a partnership is announced. In a fair fight, this one would have been stopped long ago, but this is no fair fight (remember the old time wrestling matches, Freddie Blassie, etc, especially the tag teams - well, we're reliving it on the MannKind battlefield!). The ref won't step in to do his job, and the guys on the square are getting jobbed. Until something better (and priced so as to be paid for by insurance) comes along, or, perish the thought, Afrezza is shown to be harmful if taken over a long period of time, the MannKind/BP partnership will be selling all the Afrezza they can produce. It might not be the wonder drug for every diabetic, but it sure is going to work beautifully for plenty. It's a matter of time, and that's the way it is.
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Post by seanismorris on Jul 26, 2014 18:25:28 GMT -5
From the Fools Brian Orelli: While it's pulled back considerably from its post-approval highs, I'm still going to call out MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD ) here, trading up more than 70% year to date. This isn't to say that MannKind's inhaled insulin Afrezza, doesn't have potential. It does. But the risk-reward doesn't look particularly good to me at a market cap of $3.5 billion, which is actually considerably higher if you add in all the outstanding warrants and options. Predicting MannKind's short-term movement is impossible, but long-term it'll ultimately be valued on sales of Afrezza. At a price to sales ratio of five, there's already over $600 million in annual sales priced in. The ratio could expand before hitting a $600 million run rate, pushing up the valuation, but only if the launch is successful. The risk -- that I don't think is fully appreciated in the current valuation -- is that doctors take a wait-and-see attitude with Afrezza. They prescribe it to a few patients, perhaps someone with fear of needles, but avoid giving it to a wider population because of the new mode of action. With concerns over impairments to lung function and lung cancer, doctors may not want to expose a large number of patients to Afrezza until they have real-life experience with it. If that situation comes to fruition, like we've seen with the obesity drugs, MannKind's value could drop precipitously. -------- Every time I read something from the Fools, it feels like I watching the 3 Stooges m.youtube.com/watch?v=fIq_N7DfDvo
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