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Post by sportsrancho on May 9, 2018 17:50:08 GMT -5
Michael K
MNKD - Results out and 1 of my 3 expected bullish material catalysts for 2Q/3Q confirmed
The share price will adjust accordingly. But the catalyst has been indeed confirmed and another was alluded to on the call.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 9, 2018 17:51:04 GMT -5
I’m assuming he means ADA and he’s alluding to copartner.
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Post by pguererro on May 9, 2018 17:51:51 GMT -5
The problem is the Endos that did prescribe Afrezza the past the past year didn’t have good results. Due mostly to underdosing or patient not sticking it out for more than a couple days to deal with cough/Titration etc. Bottom line they had a bad experience. Patients do not start Afrezza and fall in love with it. It takes some perseverance and motivation to get Afrezza dialed in even with a dexcom. Not to mention for the tight glycemic control we are about to brag about (stat trial) a patient needs to take corrective doses 2 hrs after most meals. Once a patient titrate effectively (which means their doc has to share with them you need 1.5-2 times the amount of Afrezza u it’s when converting from RAA), is willing to take 5-6 puffs a day for post prandial control depending on what there Dexcom tells them, we then have a patient that will experience life changing glycemic control. A lot of moving parts for success. It’s not just “try Afrezza” you’ll love it. The above scenario is for type 1. For type 2’s it could be as easy as just try it as long as they increase there dose to an efficacious amount in units.
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Post by nylefty on May 9, 2018 17:58:51 GMT -5
Person placeholder image Michael Kovacocy 6m Follow MNKD - Earnings call wrap-up...Solid progress continues towards driving a valuation based on a properly scaled Afrezza franchise along with a synergistic platform for other revenue drivers. Increased clarity on cash raise requirements along with sources of non-dilutive financing. Commentary regarding the resurrection of TV as a marketing tool driven by responsiveness and efficacy of medium are a very welcome and unexpected development. Upcoming ADA posture fulfills one of my the three catalysts for 2Q/3Q in my thesis. International expansion and Brazil 4Q/1Q go offer additional momentum catalysts above and beyond inflection in baseline US ops. Overall, I feel very comfortable following an excellent call and solid forward guidance and debrief. Stand by my targets of near-term $15 and longer term (within three years) $40. Well, right now, after hours it's down 13 cents, so the market isn't exactly jumping with joy.D\ Digger: Your extreme negativity has led some on this board to assume that you're short MNKD. Are you?
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Post by sportsrancho on May 9, 2018 18:00:14 GMT -5
I’m assuming he’s paid.
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Post by peppy on May 9, 2018 18:02:03 GMT -5
The problem is the Endos that did prescribe Afrezza the past the past year didn’t have good results. Due mostly to underdosing or patient not sticking it out for more than a couple days to deal with cough/Titration etc. Bottom line they had a bad experience. Patients do not start Afrezza and fall in love with it. It takes some perseverance and motivation to get Afrezza dialed in even with a dexcom. Not to mention for the tight glycemic control we are about to brag about (stat trial) a patient needs to take corrective doses 2 hrs after most meals. Once a patient titrate effectively (which means their doc has to share with them you need 1.5-2 times the amount of Afrezza u it’s when converting from RAA), is willing to take 5-6 puffs a day for post prandial control depending on what there Dexcom tells them, we then have a patient that will experience life changing glycemic control. A lot of moving parts for success. It’s not just “try Afrezza” you’ll love it. The above scenario is for type 1. For type 2’s it could be as easy as just try it as long as they increase there dose to an efficacious amount in units. What you talking about Willis? "I'm not saying this because I'm an investor......I really really love Afrezza and as long as I can afford it I'll keep buying it every 4 to 6 weeks. How in Gods Earth are RX's so frigin low? Mind boggling. What's not to love about it? It's easy, effective and no needles. The Libre is pretty awesome too. The combo is unbeatable....but since the Libre is $4 per day when you add it to the cost of Afrezza it is something you gotta think about. When you figure out the patterns then you can get away from the Libre but not the Afrezza. I have much less brain fog since I'm in an better range most of the time (under 160). To get into a range like AfrezzaUser which is around 110 I'd need a basal or 4 unit puffs a few more times a day......BUT.....I don't think I need to be in that range all the time. I averaged 250 not too long ago.....160 might be just fine with me for now." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9780/went-doctor?page=8#ixzz5F349kEyw
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Post by golfeveryday on May 9, 2018 18:09:27 GMT -5
I’m assuming he means ADA and he’s alluding to copartner. he also eluded to bringing in another asset to sell with Afrezza.
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Post by pguererro on May 9, 2018 18:20:26 GMT -5
The problem is the Endos that did prescribe Afrezza the past the past year didn’t have good results. Due mostly to underdosing or patient not sticking it out for more than a couple days to deal with cough/Titration etc. Bottom line they had a bad experience. Patients do not start Afrezza and fall in love with it. It takes some perseverance and motivation to get Afrezza dialed in even with a dexcom. Not to mention for the tight glycemic control we are about to brag about (stat trial) a patient needs to take corrective doses 2 hrs after most meals. Once a patient titrate effectively (which means their doc has to share with them you need 1.5-2 times the amount of Afrezza u it’s when converting from RAA), is willing to take 5-6 puffs a day for post prandial control depending on what there Dexcom tells them, we then have a patient that will experience life changing glycemic control. A lot of moving parts for success. It’s not just “try Afrezza” you’ll love it. The above scenario is for type 1. For type 2’s it could be as easy as just try it as long as they increase there dose to an efficacious amount in units. What you talking about Willis? "I'm not saying this because I'm an investor......I really really love Afrezza and as long as I can afford it I'll keep buying it every 4 to 6 weeks. How in Gods Earth are RX's so frigin low? Mind boggling. What's not to love about it? It's easy, effective and no needles. The Libre is pretty awesome too. The combo is unbeatable....but since the Libre is $4 per day when you add it to the cost of Afrezza it is something you gotta think about. When you figure out the patterns then you can get away from the Libre but not the Afrezza. I have much less brain fog since I'm in an better range most of the time (under 160). To get into a range like AfrezzaUser which is around 110 I'd need a basal or 4 unit puffs a few more times a day......BUT.....I don't think I need to be in that range all the time. I averaged 250 not too long ago.....160 might be just fine with me for now." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9780/went-doctor?page=8#ixzz5F349kEyw
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Post by pguererro on May 9, 2018 18:23:22 GMT -5
Peppy that’s awesome!! I do hear great stories like yours and am finally hearing more and more. However my prior post is reality vs a motivated investor trying Afrezza. Again, awesome to hear your experience. This drug truly will change your life.
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Post by Clement on May 9, 2018 19:02:35 GMT -5
Mike C previously mentioned a 2nd international deal (after India) in the works. He didn't mention it this call, did he?
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Post by mnkdnut on May 9, 2018 19:14:01 GMT -5
So true, pg. I believe this to be one of the primary reasons script growth has been so excruciatingly gradual (it's also the basis for Vdex's entire business model). Instead of exponential growth as trialers turn into refillers, the math says we mainly keep signing up new trialers as the old ones drop off. Overcoming that, changing the Endo community's thinking and getting the insurance burden lowered, are very long term projects. In my mind it's not a matter of if Afrezza eventually becomes the new paradigm in prandial glycemic control, it's how long does it take and how much funding is needed. Other than dilution, where will the money (it's hundreds of millions, not tens) come from? A sales force, consumer advertising, clinical trials/studies, paying off debt, just keeping the lights on......needs deep pockets. Sooner or later, I think someone with those kind of pockets needs to come in and take over. The technosphere pipeline and international rights no longer seem like sufficient saviors. The STAT study is a step in the right direction, but it's not an immediate catalyst of accelerating scripts - it's a Pilot Study designed to justify a larger study that will need to be done. Mike's no dummy, I'm sure he doesn't want to be doing just-in-time financing every few quarters. Folks can feel good about the clinical and commercial progress steps along the way, but the path does not seem financially sustainable for long. I think buy-out is the ultimate answer. Pray for more than one bidder.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 9, 2018 19:20:21 GMT -5
Person placeholder image Michael Kovacocy 6m Follow MNKD - Earnings call wrap-up...Solid progress continues towards driving a valuation based on a properly scaled Afrezza franchise along with a synergistic platform for other revenue drivers. Increased clarity on cash raise requirements along with sources of non-dilutive financing. Commentary regarding the resurrection of TV as a marketing tool driven by responsiveness and efficacy of medium are a very welcome and unexpected development. Upcoming ADA posture fulfills one of my the three catalysts for 2Q/3Q in my thesis. International expansion and Brazil 4Q/1Q go offer additional momentum catalysts above and beyond inflection in baseline US ops. Overall, I feel very comfortable following an excellent call and solid forward guidance and debrief. Stand by my targets of near-term $15 and longer term (within three years) $40. Well, right now, after hours it's down 13 cents, so the market isn't exactly jumping with joy. MK synergistic catalyzing momentum inflection gibberish not withstanding , I wouldn't judge things based on after hours. I liked what I heard/saw. No way we go to $15 near term, much less $40 long term, but I'm increasingly hopeful we may soon form a bottom on share price with sustained gains thereafter.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 9, 2018 19:21:08 GMT -5
Michael K
MNKD - Earnings call wrap-up...Solid progress continues towards driving a valuation based on a properly scaled Afrezza franchise along with a synergistic platform for other revenue drivers. Increased clarity on cash raise requirements along with sources of non-dilutive financing. Commentary regarding the resurrection of TV as a marketing tool driven by responsiveness and efficacy of medium are a very welcome and unexpected development. Upcoming ADA posture fulfills one of my the three catalysts for 2Q/3Q in my thesis. International expansion and Brazil 4Q/1Q go offer additional momentum catalysts above and beyond inflection in baseline US ops. Overall, I feel very comfortable following an excellent call and solid forward guidance and debrief. Stand by my targets of near-term $15 and longer term (within three years) $40.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 9, 2018 19:27:20 GMT -5
Mike C previously mentioned a 2nd international deal (after India) in the works. He didn't mention it this call, did he? Actually there was mention of further "term sheets" (plural) after India. If that was not a mistake, it means there is at least a 3rd (or 4th if Brazil is counted) new one in the works. I'm still suspecting that China will be the next to drop. Of course I was predicting China would be the next to drop before India, so obviously I'm guessing rather than having insider info. They're going to scientific conference in Germany... hmm?
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Post by sportsrancho on May 9, 2018 19:29:15 GMT -5
Mike C previously mentioned a 2nd international deal (after India) in the works. He didn't mention it this call, did he? Actually there was mention of further "term sheets" (plural) after India. If that was not a mistake, it means there is at least a 3rd (or 4th if Brazil is counted) new one in the works. I'm still suspecting that China will be the next to drop. Of course I was predicting China would be the next to drop before India, so obviously I'm guessing rather than having insider info. Yes sounded like there was more than one more.
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