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Post by barnstormer on May 20, 2018 8:38:38 GMT -5
When is Spencer going to address the fact that if a patient gets a 90 day supply the scrip numbers are skewed as a 3 month supply should = 3 scrips based on Symphony data.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 8:39:13 GMT -5
Timri....
Hello. There have been times where I have been bullish the stock...BUT...that was from a traders perspective. An example is when it dipped below $1 again after the reverse split. From a general perspective, It would take a fundamental shift in cash and sales to make me bullish. I would also like to see a pipeline with more depth . A major issue with MannKind is that it exists in the corporate version of living paycheck to paycheck. It does not have the funds to drive a change, nurture the pipeline, or create. This means it can not afford mistakes. In summary, I would want to see MannKind with about 1.5 years worth of cash, and see sales progressing at a clip that demonstrates good growth.
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Post by timri on May 20, 2018 9:18:16 GMT -5
Timri.... Hello. There have been times where I have been bullish the stock...BUT...that was from a traders perspective. An example is when it dipped below $1 again after the reverse split. From a general perspective, It would take a fundamental shift in cash and sales to make me bullish. I would also like to see a pipeline with more depth . A major issue with MannKind is that it exists in the corporate version of living paycheck to paycheck. It does not have the funds to drive a change, nurture the pipeline, or create. This means it can not afford mistakes. In summary, I would want to see MannKind with about 1.5 years worth of cash, and see sales progressing at a clip that demonstrates good growth. I appreciate your viewpoints and I would love to see some of the same changes you do. I also believe that with our new team in place mike and Kendal we are primed to make the changes you stated. |
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 9:46:40 GMT -5
Timri.... Hello. There have been times where I have been bullish the stock...BUT...that was from a traders perspective. An example is when it dipped below $1 again after the reverse split. From a general perspective, It would take a fundamental shift in cash and sales to make me bullish. I would also like to see a pipeline with more depth . A major issue with MannKind is that it exists in the corporate version of living paycheck to paycheck. It does not have the funds to drive a change, nurture the pipeline, or create. This means it can not afford mistakes. In summary, I would want to see MannKind with about 1.5 years worth of cash, and see sales progressing at a clip that demonstrates good growth. I appreciate your viewpoints and I would love to see some of the same changes you do. I also believe that with our new team in place mike and Kendal we are primed to make the changes you stated. I am more cautious with this company. I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk. I think Mike is a personable guy, but have not been impressed with several of his moves. He has done some things that are impressive as well, but at this stage, for me, it is a mixed bag. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 20, 2018 12:56:52 GMT -5
Barnstormer, i am copying your question from the scripts section here as this may help direct specific questions to Spencer from others and keep it in one thread and out of the new member introduction thread. Hope this helps. barnstormer Researcher *** barnstormer Avatar Die Hard Biotech Investor Posts: 91Male Sentiment: Long Symphony Script Data 4 hours ago sportsrancho, centralcoastinvestor, and 2 more like this ReplyQuote like Post Options Post by barnstormer on 4 hours ago When is Spencer going to address the fact that if a patient gets a 90 day supply the scrip numbers are skewed as a 3 month supply should = 3 scrips based on Symphony data.
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2679/symphony-script-data?page=245#ixzz5G484UR65 |
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Post by traderdennis on May 20, 2018 13:43:23 GMT -5
When is Spencer going to address the fact that if a patient gets a 90 day supply the scrip numbers are skewed as a 3 month supply should = 3 scrips based on Symphony data. Can you show us where revenue per script has doubled or tripled to prove this? Rev per script went up in 3rd / 4th quarter 2017 which was attributed to changes in packaging. If it is true scripts all of a sudden changes from one to theee months avg script would be up. |
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Post by liane on May 20, 2018 13:45:28 GMT -5
joey - I did you one better and moved the actual posts.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 14:40:56 GMT -5
Hello all....
So as to avoid any nonsense in this thread, I will copy a statement from the welcome thread. My hope is to be topical to the investment.
Hello All:
Just a few things to put out there for the time being. This is in an effort to avoid some debate about various things that really do not add value to an investment discussion:
1. I write because I enjoy writing. I do not write for a living, nor do I really put much effort into promoting what I write.
2. Seeking Alpha does compensate authors. That being said, it is quite a modest sum. It does allow me to put a little extra into causes that are important to me. Two causes that I really care about are veterans (I am a veteran myself), and autism. Motley Fool pays writers more, but wants smaller articles. They are not really my style, so I stick with SA.
3. Seeking Alpha does not care about whether an author is bullish or bearish on an equity. Many equities have authors that carry different opinions on an equity. What Seeking Alpha cares about is that you have accurate information and offer some form of value to a reader considering an investment. Seeking Alpha is a platform where independent authors can submit their work,
4. I have no control over comments on Seeking Alpha. I do not see them prior to everyone else seeing them. I do not control if a comment is published, and I can not delete comments. SA has terms of use. If a comment violates those terms, it may never get published, or it may be removed. I myself (even though I am a contributor) have had my ability to comment suspended in the past.
5. I have no position in MNKD. That means I have no stock, I am not short, I have no options, and I am not being compensated in any other form for my work.
6. I have no control on if or when SA publishes my articles. The only thing I control is when I write, and when I submit. Some work is published by SA quickly, some work is published less quickly.
7. I do not have friends and family that are playing MannKind. In point of fact, I avoid specific equity discussions with friends and family. My wife does not own a single equity. By choice, all of her investments are in mutual funds.
8. Because there are passionate folks that have some pretty active imaginations, I made the conscience decision to avoid playing the MNKD equity in any way. I would rather avoid any question about my integrity and honor than play this stock. Should my files ever see an audit, it would be impossible to arrive at a conclusion that somehow I was writing to benefit a stock position.
9. Most of my coverage related to MNKD is geared toward active traders that play the swings of the stock.
10. In the last 30 plus years I have had the benefit of seeing the workings of Wall Street very closely. I see how money flows, how money is raised, what actions companies take, how hedge funds operate, and how the retail investor is at a massive disadvantage. I have also seen the psychology of the retail investor, and the fact that the vast majority of retail investors do not really have the market savvy that they should. I offer my readers insights into how things work, why they work that way, and how being informed can make you a better investor and at least takle away a small piece of the massive advantage that the big boys possess.
11. I like the concept of Afrezza and hope that it remains available to those that benefit from it. I do not see Afrezza as the ultimate solution, nor do I see any product as the ultimate solution. Humanity is always advancing. That means that any product has a limited window of viability. As a writer about equities, I do not have the luxury of adding emotion to the equation. A good product may or may not be a good investment. A bad product may or may not be a good investment. In addition, a critical part of investing is timing. A poorly timed investment can mean you never break even, or waste years to get to break even. If you believe that Afrezza will be a success, and that comes to fruition, you will be right on that assessment....BUT...Product success and investment success can be two very different things.
12. I do not use multiple names, etc. If I post somewhere, I make it crystal clear who I am.
In closing, I am an average person that lives an average life. I have three kids (17, 14, and 4 months), and carry the same worries in life that every other average person has. I believe in being honest and honorable. I follow several equities, but write about a small amount of them. I watch the financials, the numbers, the sentiment, and the news. In technicals I like to look at volume, support and resistance, and EMA's. I tend to be very blunt in how I cover things. Investors get the "sales pitch" from management and sell side analysts. Retail investors rarely get the buy side analysts perspective. Covering the "sales pitch" is the easy path. The bulls will love you because you are towing the company line. Most retail investors are seeking to see beyond the sales pitch even if they do not know it. When they do finally realize that seeing the buy side type of analysis makes them better, they more greatly appreciate what they do. I look at speculative plays with a more cautious eye, because they are speculative.
PS. I am not very big on a writer posting on message boards. With that, I will check in from time to time and interact with those that can keep to the topic of the investment
Cheers
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 14:57:42 GMT -5
Barnstormer....
Multiple month scripts already show up in the data as well as my projections. If you look at the retail dollars per script, the number is higher than what a single script sells for. The retail dollars per reported script is currently between $1,200 and $1,300. This is higher than even a titration pack. What is the logical answer as to why? Having followed pharma for a long time, having dealt with Symphony, and having dealy with and consulted to IMS, I can tell you that the delta is because of three month scripts. That being said, with a drug like Afrezza, there are some that use it simply for adjustment. Their 1 script can last 2 or three months. This will show up in slower than desired refills. In the end, when you boil it down to the dollars, it all comes out in the wash.
If a person were using a static price for each script and not paying attention to any shifts, they would have a flawed assumption. I track retail sales, gross revenue, net revenue, script counts, assumptions on titration, assumptions on three month use, assumptions on three scripts at a time, etc. I plug in numbers, and if something does not jive I seek out the reason and make the appropriate adjustments. These cross checks keep my modeling accurate because they are checking my work and assumptions from multiple angles.
The dynamic in revenue we saw between last year and this year was a dynamic created by new packaging. It will not exist this year, and revenue growth will fall pretty much in line with script growth. The only thing that will shift that is another package change or a price increase. Afrezza is already "expensive", so pricing elasticity is non-existent.
If saying that there were 700 scripts instead of 500 because of three month fillers makes someone feel better, than that is quite fine...BUT...They would have to then LOWER the average revenue per scripts. You see, this is an accounting function. For every action there is a reaction. In order to keep it simple, I work in revenue per reported script. Why complicate things when it is not necessary, and when the dollars at the end of the day are exactly the same?
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Post by mike0475 on May 20, 2018 14:57:54 GMT -5
Welcome Spencer, thanks for kicking the tires with PB. Followed you through KOAT days. SIRI still going.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 14:59:42 GMT -5
Welcome Spencer, thanks for kicking the tires with PB. Followed you through KOAT days. SIRI still going. I am still in SIRI and all of the Liberty Media plays. It has treated me very very well. In fact, Liberty is one of my favorite investments. |
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Post by mike0475 on May 20, 2018 15:02:07 GMT -5
Start a SIRI - LM thread, i dont believe its done yet.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on May 20, 2018 16:04:58 GMT -5
I appreciate your viewpoints and I would love to see some of the same changes you do. I also believe that with our new team in place mike and Kendal we are primed to make the changes you stated. I am more cautious with this company. I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk. I think Mike is a personable guy, but have not been impressed with several of his moves. He has done some things that are impressive as well, but at this stage, for me, it is a mixed bag. [b What moves have you not been impressed by? |
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Post by goyocafe on May 20, 2018 16:20:11 GMT -5
I am more cautious with this company. I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk. I think Mike is a personable guy, but have not been impressed with several of his moves. He has done some things that are impressive as well, but at this stage, for me, it is a mixed bag. [b What moves have you not been impressed by? “I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk.” Hmmm. Spencer, didn’t you just write a complete article suggesting that Mannkind might be better off selling their number one asset for the prospect of developing a pipeline? Raising money based on a pipeline would surely require “material progress” before getting a lot of people excited, so perhaps the better strategy is to fully capitalize on the real assets they already own. Please write your next article based on the market cap of Afrezza after contemplating this post mnkd.proboards.com/post/148110 |
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 16:26:41 GMT -5
I am more cautious with this company. I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk. I think Mike is a personable guy, but have not been impressed with several of his moves. He has done some things that are impressive as well, but at this stage, for me, it is a mixed bag. [b What moves have you not been impressed by? 1. The Dame Dash diabetes network 2. The sponsorship of Reversed 3. Setting up a contract rep force with limited ability to market 4. Transitioning into a direct hire sales force and then shifting the method by which the sales force is compensated. 5. Offering up unrealistic guidance in 2017 and then using accounting shifts and a big cash spend to "hit it" 6. Putting to much weight on the label change, and now the STAT study 7. Putting up 2018 guidance in February, and just 8 weeks later cautioning to the lower end. 8. being proud to say healthcare funds were participating in the latest offering only to see that at least one of them was taking advantage of a short play. 9. The expenditures on operations and sales and marketing. 10. The lack of material progress on insurance such as getting to better tiers. 11. The overall website management. 12. Dropping the proverbial ball on the patient assistance program in 2017 13. Some simple mistakes like trying to quote a different source on scripts, in essence, trying to shift the way things are measured. 14. The continued leverage that MannKind allows Deerfield to possess, and having to pay the piper whenever they sit at the table. Management is not in an easy place. I get it. Some of these errors are unforced, which the company can not afford to have. Some are related to being in a difficult place, which gives a level of "forgiveness" |
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