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Post by piccolopete on Sept 12, 2013 16:46:26 GMT -5
" Our latest trials of 600 patients are showing even more significant benefits from the product than our original trials; the most recent trial appears to show that this should replace frontline treatment for all Type 2 patients." ....Al Mann
This was the rationale I believe Al used to declare that Afrezza could be the most important new drug release, ever. Unfortunately, the Phase 3 trial results just released did not validify this observation and bullishness.
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Post by piccolopete on Sept 11, 2013 13:39:06 GMT -5
I'm Bullish on MNKD, but there's been so much dilution, and factoring the amount of debt, $13 would place a market cap on the company of $7.5B. That seems high at this point. I don't expect $13 - unless there's a direct buy out - for 2 to 3 years.
MNKD really has only one drug. I know about the inhaleable pain med and the cancer trial.
Any partnership agreement is going to be much less lucrative than many here believe. MNKD simply has very little leverage due to their cash needs and lack of ability to market Afrezza. The presentation notes I read from SA make Matt sound like a bumbling idiot when discussing ongoing partnership discussions. MNKD's been beating the partnership drum for eons (misleading investors in this regard) and frankly, have zero credibility on this front.
Uncertainty in the marketplace favor shorts. I expect them to ram this down under $5 soon - taking out stops and triggering margin calls.
I'm sure others will bash me for this post, but I'm trying to be realistic. If MNKD had been approved last go round, there'd be about 175M share O/S instead of ~450M fully diluted, which would place my max price in the $35 range. Estimates anyway....................
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 29, 2013 13:27:22 GMT -5
Misleading to believe Afrezza would bring down A1c levels during the trials. A1c (my understanding) is a more of a long term marker and an increase in basal would be required (in most cases) to achieve meaningful reductions over time. However, with Afrezza usage, physicians would be able to increase basal without as much fear of hypoglycemic events as the tail of the ultra rapid acting insulin would be practically non-existent. The trials were not structured in this manner. It would have been phenomenal if material A1C reductions occurred.
So, physicians are going to be in a better position to tweak dosages on the basal side of the equation to achieve A1C reductions with concurrent usage of Afrezza as compared to currently available shorter acting insulin therapies.
And then, as has been pointed out to me, there's the population of pre-diabetics and new diabetics that may benefit greatly from aggressive early insulin treatment (Afrezza). I happen to be on the cusp of being included in this population - 57 yr. old, 5'10, 152 lbs, formerly very athletic, vegetarian, heavy genetics for diabetes on father's side, 106 fasting glucose past 2 yrs, high cholesterol, getting blood drawn tomorrow for another fasting glucose test, watched my father, his brother and mother die of complications for diabetes....................
Criminey, I've turned into a MNKD bull.
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 28, 2013 17:06:19 GMT -5
spiro, remains to be seen. all we can do at this point is guess. affezauser certainly had a very positive experience. i agree, the mktplace is potentially huge, potentially.
mnkdmillionaire, no harm meant, just spurring discussion, peace.
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 28, 2013 10:10:17 GMT -5
I think at $13 per share, including debt, MNKD will be valued at ~ $7B. The one year analyst target for MNKD is $8 and change. And one year will put us 4 months past an FDA decision date. IMO, if a deal's gonna get done, I suggest it be in a hurry as there are other therapies on the horizon (hence Greenhill). I do think Al's hand has been substantially weakened regarding bargaining power with BP's due to uncertainty of the FDA decision, MNKD's need for funds, and lets' be honest, his advanced age.
I do believe, MNKD has a winner with Afrezza, but not a Secretariat.
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 27, 2013 16:16:37 GMT -5
Add $3 for the convenience factor (no refrigeration, handy device and dosing), so $13 per share.
MNKD was screwed by the FDA and the 2nd crl (FDA clearly moved goalposts, and I believe there was outside pressure), resulting in at least triple dilution, not to mention delay in getting this drug to diabetics (could have saved lives).
See, I can be reasonable.
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 27, 2013 14:45:42 GMT -5
the 8k, that is. One of my main beefs was the non-published data - they addressed that.
What will hold the pps in check is uncertainty and the length of time until an FDA decision is made, and the market cap of the company taking into consideration the number of fully diluted shares outstanding.
I think what we have here is an ultra rapid action mealtime insulin that produces less hypoglycemic incidents. It's novel and will garner market share.
Is it the blockbuster Al has been boasting about - I don't think so.
Will a BP step up / pony up before approval - I don't think so.
What's MNKD worth, my guess is $10 per share (assuming approval).
On the bright side, MNKD has been able to hold it's own today considering the broader market dive.
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 23, 2013 9:59:06 GMT -5
Well, I certainly hope there is room on this board for "other opinions". I do not mean to be insulting and would like to keep this professional.
Re: Deerfield - let's be honest, they have some risk, certainly acceptable to them taking into consideration the manner in which the deal was structured.
MNKD has been scrambling for funds ever since the 2nd CRL. One can't blame AL for not wanting to pony up any more funds given the massive amount he has contributed to see Afrezza through to the finish line.
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 23, 2013 9:34:52 GMT -5
IMHO, justified. I think Al Mann's "BlockBuster Drug" bravado is just that, bravado. I agree with Adam Feuerstein - the data wasn't all that impressive, and the info withheld on the Medtone arm is troubling. I do give the odds of approval an increase over his though at 60-40.
The so-called hit pieces re: MNKD's market cap are right on target. The 2nd CRL caused massive dilution, and hence, a $4 or $5 pps at this point is justified.
The hiring of Greenhill - MNKD needs a deal to get done pre-FDA approval date. They need the funds. Whether or not any BP will be willing to step up and take the chance given the variables remains to be seen. I certainly think MNKD's past statements about all the partners they were dealing with was more bravado.
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