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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 4, 2018 18:53:51 GMT -5
Thanks Pep!
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Post by stockwhisperer on Jun 4, 2018 18:59:47 GMT -5
mango - First congratulations on writing a blog piece. However, what you wrote below is the problem with MannKind, essentially no upfront money from partnerships. "Potential 2018 MannKind Non-Dilutive Sources of Capital and Catalysts 1. MannKind will receive a $2.2 million upfront payment from Cipla within 30 days of entering the agreement, with the potential to receive additional regulatory milestone payments, minimum purchase commitment revenue and royalties on Afrezza sales in India." Yes, it would seem even under most scenarios of growing acceptance of Afrezza there would be a need to raise $100M+ more. International deals would just make small chips into that requirement. It is an excellent blog piece. What he is saying is accurate. it is what is known. Yes, money will be needed. The unknown, as to how that will be achieved is just that - unknown. Mike C says they will meet guidance for 2018. Folks can speculate from a negative perspective, as frequently done or just as easily from a positive perspective. It is all a guess anyway - until it happens. Thanks Mango & congrats - great job!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 4, 2018 19:16:32 GMT -5
Yes, it would seem even under most scenarios of growing acceptance of Afrezza there would be a need to raise $100M+ more. International deals would just make small chips into that requirement. It is an excellent blog piece. What he is saying is accurate. it is what is known. Yes, money will be needed. The unknown, as to how that will be achieved is just that - unknown. Mike C says they will meet guidance for 2018. Folks can speculate from a negative perspective, as frequently done or just as easily from a positive perspective. It is all a guess anyway - until it happens. Thanks Mango & congrats - great job! It's mostly quotes from management reported accurately. It does present a management team projecting an air of confidence. As for meeting guidance... technically he did say that, though as early in the year as that was moved to the lower end of the previous range, reading between lines it would seem the probable range now includes possibility of being below $25M. The scripts as yet don't support hitting $25M by year end. It's possible, but a change in trajectory would need to materialize fairly soon now. Much of investing is making judgement about likely outcomes that can't be known with certainty. For many it appears that dilution is the likely path of further funding, and that view is bolstered significantly by recent MNKD history. I've heard no one make a convincing argument otherwise... as I'd simply characterize your position as "don't worry about it".
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Post by peppy on Jun 4, 2018 19:41:23 GMT -5
It is an excellent blog piece. What he is saying is accurate. it is what is known. Yes, money will be needed. The unknown, as to how that will be achieved is just that - unknown. Mike C says they will meet guidance for 2018. Folks can speculate from a negative perspective, as frequently done or just as easily from a positive perspective. It is all a guess anyway - until it happens. Thanks Mango & congrats - great job! It's mostly quotes from management reported accurately. It does present a management team projecting an air of confidence. As for meeting guidance... technically he did say that, though as early in the year as that was moved to the lower end of the previous range, reading between lines it would seem the probable range now includes possibility of being below $25M. The scripts as yet don't support hitting $25M by year end. It's possible, but a change in trajectory would need to materialize fairly soon now.Much of investing is making judgement about likely outcomes that can't be known with certainty. For many it appears that dilution is the likely path of further funding, and that view is bolstered significantly by recent MNKD history. I've heard no one make a convincing argument otherwise... as I'd simply characterize your position as "don't worry about it". 20 days until the oral presentation of the STAT study, and the poster presentation of total and severe hypoglycemia. "I'm also very pleased to announce that a team here within our medical group took the opportunity to look at data performed from a trial in Type 1 diabetes and assess not just the rates of hypoglycemia, but adjusted total and severe hypoglycemia rates comparing Technosphere Insulin with Insulin Aspart. And these data will be presented as one of approximately 100 late-breaking poster presentations at the American Diabetes Association."
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 4, 2018 19:47:38 GMT -5
It's mostly quotes from management reported accurately. It does present a management team projecting an air of confidence. As for meeting guidance... technically he did say that, though as early in the year as that was moved to the lower end of the previous range, reading between lines it would seem the probable range now includes possibility of being below $25M. The scripts as yet don't support hitting $25M by year end. It's possible, but a change in trajectory would need to materialize fairly soon now.Much of investing is making judgement about likely outcomes that can't be known with certainty. For many it appears that dilution is the likely path of further funding, and that view is bolstered significantly by recent MNKD history. I've heard no one make a convincing argument otherwise... as I'd simply characterize your position as "don't worry about it". 20 days until the oral presentation of the STAT study, and the poster presentation of total and severe hypoglycemia. "I'm also very pleased to announce that a team here within our medical group took the opportunity to look at data performed from a trial in Type 1 diabetes and assess not just the rates of hypoglycemia, but adjusted total and severe hypoglycemia rates comparing Technosphere Insulin with Insulin Aspart. And these data will be presented as one of approximately 100 late-breaking poster presentations at the American Diabetes Association." Like waiting for Christmas... can't we unwrap one present early? I do wonder what will be said about severe hypos, as previously it seems the data was determined to not be statistically significant. What is the "adjustment"?
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 4, 2018 19:50:30 GMT -5
30% reduction.
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Post by mango on Jun 4, 2018 19:53:49 GMT -5
I'm also very pleased to announce that a team here within our medical group took the opportunity to look at data performed from a trial in Type 1 diabetes and assess not just the rates of hypoglycemia, but adjusted total and severe hypoglycemia rates comparing Technosphere Insulin with Insulin Aspart. And these data will be presented as one of approximately 100 late-breaking poster presentations at the American Diabetes Association. Mango you wrote this blog? Oh good job, and thank you. Nice work. What did you need to do to get it accepted? Asking for a friend. Just submit it. It's under the instablog and doesn't require any personal information or anything, just simple email registration.
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Post by mango on Jun 4, 2018 20:25:14 GMT -5
It is an excellent blog piece. What he is saying is accurate. it is what is known. Yes, money will be needed. The unknown, as to how that will be achieved is just that - unknown. Mike C says they will meet guidance for 2018. Folks can speculate from a negative perspective, as frequently done or just as easily from a positive perspective. It is all a guess anyway - until it happens. Thanks Mango & congrats - great job! It's mostly quotes from management reported accurately. It does present a management team projecting an air of confidence. As for meeting guidance... technically he did say that, though as early in the year as that was moved to the lower end of the previous range, reading between lines it would seem the probable range now includes possibility of being below $25M. The scripts as yet don't support hitting $25M by year end. It's possible, but a change in trajectory would need to materialize fairly soon now. Much of investing is making judgement about likely outcomes that can't be known with certainty. For many it appears that dilution is the likely path of further funding, and that view is bolstered significantly by recent MNKD history. I've heard no one make a convincing argument otherwise... as I'd simply characterize your position as "don't worry about it". Indeed it is mostly quotes, as that was the blog's intended pupose at that time. Now when people say Afrezza will become the Standard of Care, you will know that it's the same thinking as the team of global diabetes experts at MannKind. š
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Post by stockwhisperer on Jun 4, 2018 23:54:38 GMT -5
It's mostly quotes from management reported accurately. It does present a management team projecting an air of confidence. As for meeting guidance... technically he did say that, though as early in the year as that was moved to the lower end of the previous range, reading between lines it would seem the probable range now includes possibility of being below $25M. The scripts as yet don't support hitting $25M by year end. It's possible, but a change in trajectory would need to materialize fairly soon now.Much of investing is making judgement about likely outcomes that can't be known with certainty. For many it appears that dilution is the likely path of further funding, and that view is bolstered significantly by recent MNKD history. I've heard no one make a convincing argument otherwise... as I'd simply characterize your position as "don't worry about it". I look at it differently. As far as the never ending dilution concern - catalysts could drive sp up significantly, long before any dilution, if it even happens. There are catalysts out there and I doubt it would take much to start moving the sp up. Once it does, there are still plenty of shorts that will help w/the sp since they will need to get out via a narrow exit. Financial institutions are already buying. As catalysts hit and the sh starts up, the trend will get stronger across the board. Also, if additional shares are issued by MNKD at some point, they could very well be sold or given by MNKD to someone who will not put them on the open market anytime soon. In any case, whatever happens, dilution is NOT always a bad thing for investors. IMO, there is not a reason a deal or deals that could bring enough upfront cash couldnāt be in the works. Just because we havenāt heard about any yet, does not mean they are not out there. In addition, a large pharmaceutical company might not get them to sell Afrezza but gaining a partnership w/MNKD - sooner rather than later, might be the next best thing. Big pharma knows that well respected Dr. Kendall is in the house - moving forward in making Afrezza the standard of care / solution for the global diabetes epidemic. In the meantime, sales could pick up significantly. Mike C alluded to tv ads - he knows how much they cost. Ad campaigns, including tv, via marketing partnerships could be announced as well. Then there is Receptor Life Sciences. Itās a wild card that at any time, could surprise investors in a good way. Now, I am certain that anyone w/differing opinions can quickly tear everything I said here apart. Thatās fine. Everyone has a right to their own opinions. I realize there are no guarantees but believe that Mike C is doing a fine job and that MNKD is finally heading in the right direction again. I am not telling others ādonāt worry about itā but you are correct, I am not worried about it. I am just waiting and hoping for what MNKD & investors deserve, a complete turnaround. 20 days until the oral presentation of the STAT study, and the poster presentation of total and severe hypoglycemia. "I'm also very pleased to announce that a team here within our medical group took the opportunity to look at data performed from a trial in Type 1 diabetes and assess not just the rates of hypoglycemia, but adjusted total and severe hypoglycemia rates comparing Technosphere Insulin with Insulin Aspart. And these data will be presented as one of approximately 100 late-breaking poster presentations at the American Diabetes Association."
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 5, 2018 0:34:55 GMT -5
stockwhisperer... there are a lot of hypotheticals. Listing them isn't an argument that they are likely. It's not tearing apart what you say, as you're basically just saying that things are possible. True enough. I too believe Mike is doing a fine job. Still likely we will have some significant further dilution based on what we can see from finances, where share price is currently and failed attempts to monetize IP despite concerted effort over past year with hired guns to do so. The company was in far worse shape before he became CEO, as he has alluded to. So even where we realistically are today (not wishful versions) is still good work on Mike's part.
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 5, 2018 7:48:21 GMT -5
The counter to that is going to be that it was achieved at the cost of a worse HbA1c outcome and that if the RAA arm had similarly underperformed their hypo rate would also be lower. That said I don't see a poster having a lot of impact, they need to get this published in a journal.
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 5, 2018 7:55:12 GMT -5
And these data will be presented as one of approximately 100 late-breaking poster presentations at the American Diabetes Association." Actually it's 317 late-breaking posters, not 100. That's about 15% of the total posters. There tend to be a lot of late-breaking posters because people are slack about filing dates, not that I ever was... (where is a tunelessly whistling emote...)
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Post by mango on Jun 5, 2018 8:22:58 GMT -5
The counter to that is going to be that it was achieved at the cost of a worse HbA1c outcome and that if the RAA arm had similarly underperformed their hypo rate would also be lower. That said I don't see a poster having a lot of impact, they need to get this published in a journal. HbA1c is a proxy for average glucose and does not reflect glucose homeostasis. It is subject to significant limitations and drawbacks. That's why TIR is the primary endpoint with STAT, it more accurately assesses glucose homeostasis.
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Post by peppy on Jun 5, 2018 8:27:30 GMT -5
And these data will be presented as one of approximately 100 late-breaking poster presentations at the American Diabetes Association." Actually it's 317 late-breaking posters, not 100. That's about 15% of the total posters. There tend to be a lot of late-breaking posters because people are slack about filing dates, not that I ever was... (where is a tunelessly whistling emote...) Kendall can only work so fast. It sounded to be, that the work was done off the STAT, as well as any other data he found and is going to present. It got the impression, the hypoglycemia work also involved the Scientific advisory board the has been formed. www.mannkindcorp.com/about-us/scientific-advisory-board/How many past presidents/chief medical officers of the American Diabetes Association does it take to know how to change the standards of care?
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 5, 2018 9:19:27 GMT -5
The counter to that is going to be that it was achieved at the cost of a worse HbA1c outcome and that if the RAA arm had similarly underperformed their hypo rate would also be lower. That said I don't see a poster having a lot of impact, they need to get this published in a journal. HbA1c is a proxy for average glucose and does not reflect glucose homeostasis. It is subject to significant limitations and drawbacks. That's why TIR is the primary endpoint with STAT, it more accurately assesses glucose homeostasis. I am not arguing for HbA1c over TIR. I am simply saying that the counter-argument to the lower hypos measure will be that there was also a worse HbA1c which is why there reduced hypos. My point is that this is not a slam dunk which is why it is a poster.
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