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Post by tomtabb on Jun 27, 2018 19:12:24 GMT -5
Any info on which analysts or funds attended? I think they should have invited some endos as well.
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Post by awesomo on Jun 27, 2018 19:19:33 GMT -5
awesomo - "The PPS went way up on FDA approval", really? It closed at $52.90 on 6/26/2014 and at $50 on 6/27/2014. The last I checked 6/27/14 was approval date. The cat was already well out of the bag before the actual announcement. www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/04/02/shares-of-mannkind-intuitive-surgical-soar-on-fda-oks/#44cffcdcee70"Shares of MannKind were up close to 75% Wednesday afternoon. The stock soared as high as $8.08 on news that a panel of advisors recommended the FDA approve Afrezza, an inhaled diabetes treatment the company has been trying to get approved since 2009." |
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Post by gareaudan on Jun 27, 2018 19:21:23 GMT -5
golfeveryday - you ask "How much longer until the inevitable Kaboom?" I say Dr. Kendall can make afrezza the standard of care for MDI in 6 months. I say thats worth $1B in sales by 2022. I say Dr, Kendall can get afrezza into the PHARMACOLOGIC THERAPY FOR TYPE 2 DIABETES in 6 months. I say Dr. Kendall can make afrezza Step 2 for T2s in 18 months. I say thats worth $6B in sales by 2024. Assume 200 outstanding shares, 50% margin and a P/E of 30. Whats the share price? When does it go Kaboom? When just a few say that guy Sayhey is right and Dr. Kendall really is going to do what he says. How fast will that happen? I have NFI but I am taking a nice long vacation during Labor Day and I am fully expecting to enjoy it. thanks for the answer. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jun 27, 2018 19:26:42 GMT -5
awesomo - you are confusing the ADCOM approval with the FDA approval - very different. The day before the ADCOM the stock crashed from the $8s to the $4s as Adam F. and others told the market afrezza was not getting approved. At best it might get T2 approval but not T1. Adam even held an online event doing a play by play.
The ADCOM 27-1 to approve was a total shock to most, even me. I won my bet with Adam but did not expect 13-1 and 14-0. The bump that day was the recovery from Adam and the run-up to FDA approval.
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Post by awesomo on Jun 27, 2018 20:09:41 GMT -5
awesomo - you are confusing the ADCOM approval with the FDA approval - very different. The day before the ADCOM the stock crashed from the $8s to the $4s as Adam F. and others told the market afrezza was not getting approved. At best it might get T2 approval but not T1. Adam even held an online event doing a play by play. The ADCOM 27-1 to approve was a total shock to most, even me. I won my bet with Adam but did not expect 13-1 and 14-0. The bump that day was the recovery from Adam and the run-up to FDA approval. First off, ADCOM approval and FDA are not very different, they are extremely correlated events. ADCOM approval pretty much guaranteed FDA approval. Second, the PPS was certainly not $8 before ADCOM. It was at most $6 a couple weeks prior. Third, ADCOM approval certainly qualifies as "good news" does it not? The PPS went up. The lead up to FDA approval the PPS went up past $10. There was no run-up at all to the ADA, and another "catalyst" has come and gone. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jun 27, 2018 20:40:02 GMT -5
awesomo - Good Grief man, enough is enough. Don't we have great news today to focus on? Today, IMO was the greatest day in the history of MNKD. I was at the ADCOM on 4/1/2014 in Maryland. It was an awesome day. Stock closed on 3/25 at $29 and 3/31 at $20.10 thanks to Adam F. and his friends. Trading was held on 4/1 during the ADCOM and closed at $34.95 on 4/2 and by 4/7 was down to $31.60.
But as great as it was as the room erupted in cheers on the votes and Adam disconnected his play by play, today was far more significant. On 4/1 and 6/27 no one knew what the plan forward for MNKD and afrezza was.
Today, Dr. Kendall laid out the plan. He said it would be morally and medically wrong for afrezza not to be the standard of care ASAP. The plan forward with the data we have is to make it happen and I say within 6 months for MDI and 18 months for SOC T2.
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Post by golfeveryday on Jun 27, 2018 21:12:57 GMT -5
golfeveryday - you ask "How much longer until the inevitable Kaboom?" I say Dr. Kendall can make afrezza the standard of care for MDI in 6 months. I say thats worth $1B in sales by 2022. I say Dr, Kendall can get afrezza into the PHARMACOLOGIC THERAPY FOR TYPE 2 DIABETES in 6 months. I say Dr. Kendall can make afrezza Step 2 for T2s in 18 months. I say thats worth $6B in sales by 2024. Assume 200 outstanding shares, 50% margin and a P/E of 30. Whats the share price? When does it go Kaboom? When just a few say that guy Sayhey is right and Dr. Kendall really is going to do what he says. How fast will that happen? I have NFI but I am taking a nice long vacation during Labor Day and I am fully expecting to enjoy it. thanks sayhey. Good things happening. |
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Post by comnkd on Jun 27, 2018 22:24:21 GMT -5
It was great to hear during the presentation today many things which we have discussed on this board for the last several years. Who knows maybe the MNKD Execs read some of this stuff.
As I have said numerous times the CGM business will soon become a commodity market. I thought the breaking news was when Edelman said Google. Steve has been the architect of the Onduo program and Google has also been working with Dexcom for awhile. verily.com/projects/
However when he said Google I thought he was talking about the Google Watch as a CGM and we all know Apple has had their secret IWatch CGM program for awhile. I would not think Dexcom has any rights to the Google Watch.
It was good to hear Dexcom reps should be selling afrezza as we have discussed that too. Kevin Sayer better move fast, real fast to make deal.
IMO, today was by far the best presentation I ever saw from MNKD. Dr. Kendall saying we have a superior "insulin" and it is morally and medically wrong not to have afrezza as the standard of care was a game changer. However the presentation must have been better than I thought as the pps was down.
If Castagna, Kendall, Edelman, and many others see this as game changing, and data supports it, why no partner or buyout? If it’s such a game changer, which I wholeheartedly agree, why such a struggle. Honest question. Three words: Profits before people. Big pharma and insurance lobbyists run the show. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 27, 2018 22:35:10 GMT -5
If Castagna, Kendall, Edelman, and many others see this as game changing, and data supports it, why no partner or buyout? If it’s such a game changer, which I wholeheartedly agree, why such a struggle. Honest question. If they didn't believe it was game changing I do not think they could do their job (Dr Edelman aside since he is not an employee). The data has yet to be presented that solidly supports the case but hopefully Dr K is fixing that. Is Afrezza a nice to have or a game-changer, and what constitutes a game-changer? Look at Dr Edelman; he thinks Afrezza is great, but he only uses it for corrections and fast carbs, everything else is a pump with RAA. If it was truly a game-changer he would use Afrezza for everything other than basal insulin. I think it is a significant improvement, but I am not sure it's a game-changer. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 27, 2018 22:50:18 GMT -5
If Castagna, Kendall, Edelman, and many others see this as game changing, and data supports it, why no partner or buyout? If it’s such a game changer, which I wholeheartedly agree, why such a struggle. Honest question. Here are my thoughts on this. 1. CGM companies do not want to align themselves with a single pharmaceutical therapy. They think the broader they keep their market audience, the greater their revenue. 2. The current valuation of MNKD is so off track that no one can make a reasonable offer without looking silly in the eyes of many (shareholders, market analysts, etc) 3. The label has not been improved enough yet to take the claims being made by management to the broader market via advertising or other regulated means, thus making it harder to increase valuation of the company so that #2 can come to fruition. 4. The competition is using their deep war chest (deep rebates to the PBM's) to maintain/protect their oligopoly stranglehold on the current inferior, slower acting, non pancreas mimicking, higher hypo risk, barbaric, now obsolete, unpredictable Raa market.  |
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Post by celo on Jun 27, 2018 23:46:36 GMT -5
Great presentation. It's a summary of what everyone on this pro board has known for a long time.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 28, 2018 0:36:42 GMT -5
Great presentation. It's a summary of what everyone on this pro board has known for a long time. Exactly, which is part of the reason the stock didn't do much of anything. |
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Post by gamblerjag on Jun 28, 2018 1:01:25 GMT -5
awesomo - "The PPS went way up on FDA approval", really? It closed at $52.90 on 6/26/2014 and at $50 on 6/27/2014. The last I checked 6/27/14 was approval date. thanks for using current stock price numbers. 👍👍😀 |
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Post by tchalaa on Jun 28, 2018 1:47:59 GMT -5
Great presentation. It's a summary of what everyone on this pro board has known for a long time. Exactly, which is part of the reason the stock didn't do much of anything. I won't say so, simply because there is a huge different of perception between: knowing for yourself you can build the atomic bomb (Proboard), broadcasting your capability to build the atomic bomb (DTC) and building the atomic bomb [Sales] Our based investment is $3Billions and I expect 2019 to bring us there, what I describe as our starting block. The "share price" had to explose and it will come around. |
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Post by steve on Jun 28, 2018 6:05:59 GMT -5
Great presentation. It's a summary of what everyone on this pro board has known for a long time. Exactly, which is part of the reason the stock didn't do much of anything. Perhaps what everyone knows here. But not everybody in the world knows this. Stock price is being controlled by a hedgefund trying to kill mnkd right now before it steals market share from their big bipharma customer. |
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