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Post by golfeveryday on Jul 14, 2018 12:26:11 GMT -5
they want it to succeed too These are milestone payments. This means it’s a one time payment? Maxim was right back in October. Mannkind didn’t raise enough money. Also, they didn’t issue shares to pay off any Deerfield debt. I don’t recall having that many shares to do so. But I do remember mk scolding maxim’s analysis. Possible Near term catalysts to get price up before dilution. International deal - 5m upfront money won’t do it. Hockey sales- doesn’t seem to be happening Co promote deal - might help Partnership for pah drug- definitely help but just finished phase 1. I’m sitting in 50% cash waiting for dilution. We could test a dollar again. finished P1 and going straight to P3. I think PAH partner may be next shoe to drop. Then dilution. |
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Post by mike0475 on Jul 14, 2018 12:32:58 GMT -5
I'll take $1 or $2 - and I will be forever thankful (and taken care of) when this "IPO" takes off and changes the industry (T1/2 D and other conditions).
Clearing the path will take time.
Looking back I think Al's prior mgmt team sat back and expected a sale like Al's other co's.
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 14, 2018 13:41:18 GMT -5
I look forward to having that problem. they want it to succeed too Deerfield definitely want it to succeed because they have bought a chunk of the revenue stream. I suspect that when they did the deal they though this was going to be relatively short term so they did the milestones to lock in the upside if Afrezza took off fast. That didn't happen so they have been making money on the interest and by shorting the stock in a share price arbitrage rather than the milestones. However the milestones are still out there and they will get hit, so that is Deerfield's bonus. I think the $50 million net sales milestone will get hit next year since total sales to date are currently heading for around $35-40 million at year end. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jul 14, 2018 15:10:23 GMT -5
I'll take $1 or $2 - and I will be forever thankful (and taken care of) when this "IPO" takes off and changes the industry (T1/2 D and other conditions). Clearing the path will take time. Looking back I think Al's prior mgmt team sat back and expected a sale like Al's other co's. yes, i always believed that the first partneship with Sanofi was only a test drive and they were supposed to buy mnkd soon after. I think mnkd management thought it was a done deal and didnt even have a serious plan B otherwise they would have raise more money when the mc was in the billions imo. Unfortunatly, Sanofi changed CEO and ... Well we all know the sad story. Lets hope we will finally get to where Al thought mnkd should be. Sooner the better. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jul 14, 2018 15:15:22 GMT -5
they want it to succeed too Deerfield definitely want it to succeed because they have bought a chunk of the revenue stream. I suspect that when they did the deal they though this was going to be relatively short term so they did the milestones to lock in the upside if Afrezza took off fast. That didn't happen so they have been making money on the interest and by shorting the stock in a share price arbitrage rather than the milestones. However the milestones are still out there and they will get hit, so that is Deerfield's bonus. I think the $50 million net sales milestone will get hit next year since total sales to date are currently heading for around $35-40 million at year end. agedhippie, i think this is the first positive post i read from you. So you do think afrezza will eventually be a blockbusters? In your opinion, what Will be the mnkd mc at that point? |
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Post by tinkusr8215 on Jul 14, 2018 18:36:28 GMT -5
agedhippie, i think this is the first positive post i read from you. So you do think afrezza will eventually be a blockbusters? In your opinion, what Will be the mnkd mc at that point? how does it matter what agedhippie thinks? under a $ or 2 $ or 10 $. No one can predict anything. |
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8K Filing
Jul 14, 2018 18:49:59 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by gareaudan on Jul 14, 2018 18:49:59 GMT -5
agedhippie, i think this is the first positive post i read from you. So you do think afrezza will eventually be a blockbusters? In your opinion, what Will be the mnkd mc at that point? how does it matter what agedhippie thinks? under a $ or 2 $ or 10 $. No one can predict anything. it matter because i think agedhippie usually have good arguments but from a pessimistic side. If he Tell me, despite his doubts, that he believe afrezza and mnkd will have 1,5b in sale in a couple of years, that a good sign for me. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 14, 2018 21:20:50 GMT -5
Deerfield definitely want it to succeed because they have bought a chunk of the revenue stream. I suspect that when they did the deal they though this was going to be relatively short term so they did the milestones to lock in the upside if Afrezza took off fast. That didn't happen so they have been making money on the interest and by shorting the stock in a share price arbitrage rather than the milestones. However the milestones are still out there and they will get hit, so that is Deerfield's bonus. I think the $50 million net sales milestone will get hit next year since total sales to date are currently heading for around $35-40 million at year end. agedhippie, i think this is the first positive post i read from you. So you do think afrezza will eventually be a blockbusters? In your opinion, what Will be the mnkd mc at that point? I think the sales double, every year, possibly triple. I have difficulty seeing how it goes higher than that, If we followed the trajectory of Trulicity I would be ecstatic. I think it's biggest future is in the Type 2 market competing with the second line non-insulin meds, and with RAAs. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 15, 2018 7:58:32 GMT -5
Aged - the answer to your question is simple. Dr. Kendall delivers on what he said he can do. Once it is the standard of care for T1s its off to the races. Get it as Step 2 for T2s and its off to the moon. "The research and clinical response to Afrezza as a mealtime insulin supports ongoing efforts to establish this product as the standard of care for those living with type 1 or type 2 diabetes," said Dr. Kendall. "Afrezza is the only inhaled fast-acting mealtime insulin on the market, and offers the right patients a flexible, safe, and effective treatment option. I'm thrilled to join MannKind, and look forward to being part of a company that has the potential to transform the lives of so many people that are living with diabetes." Based on the current SOC and what it says about afrezza it is surprising any doctor is prescribing it at all. Its says its junk. The reality is afrezza has obsoleted the need for GLP-1s, other anti-glycemics and basal use in T2s before a prandial. As far as Trulicity, its a mess. "Aside from the serious risks mentioned above, common adverse events reported during the clinical trials of Trulicity were nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, and suppressed appetite. One has to admire the inventiveness of the Eli Lilly PR people in putting a positive spin on these unpleasant side effects – aiding weight loss is one of the highlighted benefits of the drug!" www.realdiabetestruth.com/trulicity-dreadful-diabetes-drug/ |
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 15, 2018 9:09:41 GMT -5
Aged - the answer to your question is simple. Dr. Kendall delivers on what he said he can do. Once it is the standard of care for T1s its off to the races. Get it as Step 2 for T2s and its off to the moon. "The research and clinical response to Afrezza as a mealtime insulin supports ongoing efforts to establish this product as the standard of care for those living with type 1 or type 2 diabetes," said Dr. Kendall. "Afrezza is the only inhaled fast-acting mealtime insulin on the market, and offers the right patients a flexible, safe, and effective treatment option. I'm thrilled to join MannKind, and look forward to being part of a company that has the potential to transform the lives of so many people that are living with diabetes." Based on the current SOC and what it says about afrezza it is surprising any doctor is prescribing it at all. Its says its junk. The reality is afrezza has obsoleted the need for GLP-1s, other anti-glycemics and basal use in T2s before a prandial. As far as Trulicity, its a mess. "Aside from the serious risks mentioned above, common adverse events reported during the clinical trials of Trulicity were nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, and suppressed appetite. One has to admire the inventiveness of the Eli Lilly PR people in putting a positive spin on these unpleasant side effects – aiding weight loss is one of the highlighted benefits of the drug!" www.realdiabetestruth.com/trulicity-dreadful-diabetes-drug/Dr Kendall will get Afrezza added to the list of insulins alongside RAA within 6 months I believe, and maybe sooner. Getting it to replace RAA though is at least a couple of years away. It's going to take a large scale superiority trial to achieve that which cannot happen in the timescale we are talking about. The only trial data that is suitable is 171 and that says it is non-inferior. Even STAT has Afrezza as inferior to RAA for TIR unless you take two doses per meal. Assuming you take two doses per meal your TIR is still worse than a 670G using RAA and Medtronics are doing a pay by results deal with Aetna on the 670G. Type 2 is going to be a long haul, not least because they are now trialing basal with GLP-1 and SGLT-2 rather than prandial insulin and getting good results. Watch the ADA/EASD consensus statement that is due in a couple of months. Trulicity launched a couple of months ahead of Afrezza and in 2017 bought in sales of over $2 billion which was over twice the previous year's sales. If it was as bad as you say that would not happen because people would simply not take it. One of it's biggest benefits is that you only need to take it once a week. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 15, 2018 9:44:59 GMT -5
Aged - I think this may be a first so let me make sure I am reading this correctly - Are you now saying Dr. Kendall has a significant chance of getting afrezza to replace the RAA's in the standard of care in a couple of years? When are you going to give it a try now that you see it moving in the direction of being the standard of care?
What I remember coming out of ADA2018 was the analysis of Affinity-1(171) in conjunction with the STAT Pilot findings that current T1s using an RAA could reduce A1c from 8.0 to 6.8 with no additional hypoglycemia which is WAY BEYOND non-inferior. That I would call is GAME CHANGING.
When you say "Even STAT has Afrezza as inferior to RAA for TIR unless you take two doses per meal" is clearly incorrect at the 1hr mark. The RAAs are not even close. As Dr. Kendall works through his dosing two things will happen; basal levels will be increased; and meal time initial dose will also be increased. Both will increase TIR at the 2hr mark without the second puff. Lets see what he comes out with but this I believe is where he is headed with the T1s. For the T2s its easy, afrezza first, afrezza only and go big on the dose with no worries.
Concerning Trulicity, people take what their doctors prescribe. Ask a PWD why they are taking a certain medication and the answer is usually "my doctor said to". Its blind faith their doctor knows what they are doing. How many people took Orinase, or Actos or the others? How many people did Actos kill in the Accord study?
If its in the standard of care and their sales guy buddy is pushing it, the doctors prescribe. As history has demonstrated the patient ends up being the victim with serious heart damage, liver, kidney and pancreatic cancer or a missing toe or foot.
As far as afrezza and the AP, I think what current studies have clearly demonstrated afrezza makes TIR better for the AP but raises the question "is a simple patch pump just as good when you have afrezza".
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Post by gareaudan on Jul 15, 2018 10:02:35 GMT -5
What I remember coming out of ADA2018 was the analysis of Affinity-1(171) in conjunction with the STAT Pilot findings that current T1s using an RAA could reduce A1c from 8.0 to 6.8 with no additional hypoglycemia which is WAY BEYOND non-inferior. exactly, this is what i dont understand when some said that afrezza is only non inferior to RAA. It is the fact that afrezza cause less hypoglycemia that is amazing. Im not an expert but I dont think it is very hard to reduce your A1c, you just need to take more insulin. what is hard is not dying from it. Thats where afrezza seems better. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jul 15, 2018 10:12:36 GMT -5
Aged - the answer to your question is simple. Dr. Kendall delivers on what he said he can do. Once it is the standard of care for T1s its off to the races. Get it as Step 2 for T2s and its off to the moon. "The research and clinical response to Afrezza as a mealtime insulin supports ongoing efforts to establish this product as the standard of care for those living with type 1 or type 2 diabetes," said Dr. Kendall. "Afrezza is the only inhaled fast-acting mealtime insulin on the market, and offers the right patients a flexible, safe, and effective treatment option. I'm thrilled to join MannKind, and look forward to being part of a company that has the potential to transform the lives of so many people that are living with diabetes." Based on the current SOC and what it says about afrezza it is surprising any doctor is prescribing it at all. Its says its junk. The reality is afrezza has obsoleted the need for GLP-1s, other anti-glycemics and basal use in T2s before a prandial. As far as Trulicity, its a mess. "Aside from the serious risks mentioned above, common adverse events reported during the clinical trials of Trulicity were nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, and suppressed appetite. One has to admire the inventiveness of the Eli Lilly PR people in putting a positive spin on these unpleasant side effects – aiding weight loss is one of the highlighted benefits of the drug!" www.realdiabetestruth.com/trulicity-dreadful-diabetes-drug/Dr Kendall will get Afrezza added to the list of insulins alongside RAA within 6 months I believe, and maybe sooner. Getting it to replace RAA though is at least a couple of years away. It's going to take a large scale superiority trial to achieve that which cannot happen in the timescale we are talking about. The only trial data that is suitable is 171 and that says it is non-inferior. Even STAT has Afrezza as inferior to RAA for TIR unless you take two doses per meal. Assuming you take two doses per meal your TIR is still worse than a 670G using RAA and Medtronics are doing a pay by results deal with Aetna on the 670G. Type 2 is going to be a long haul, not least because they are now trialing basal with GLP-1 and SGLT-2 rather than prandial insulin and getting good results. Watch the ADA/EASD consensus statement that is due in a couple of months. Trulicity launched a couple of months ahead of Afrezza and in 2017 bought in sales of over $2 billion which was over twice the previous year's sales. If it was as bad as you say that would not happen because people would simply not take it . One of it's biggest benefits is that you only need to take it once a week. im not sure this is true. Peoples take what their doctors prescribe them and their is a lot of reasons why a doctor prescrib one medication over another.it is unfortunatly not always because it is better or even good. Statine came in mind. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 15, 2018 11:37:58 GMT -5
Trulicity.....
My friends client was having all the same horrible side effects;( 60-year-old type2.) I asked if she was on Metformin? My friend did not know. This whole story took weeks to play out...the client thought she was dying, the doctor didn’t know what was wrong with her, she got tested for all kinds of things and finally SHE figures out what’s wrong. Trulicity!
She will be changing doctors next month and going to a Afrezza friendly doctor in Temecula, so we’ll see what happens:-) She is not my client so I do not have direct contact with her.
Of course it was recommended by her doctor she didn’t even know what it was.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 15, 2018 11:43:57 GMT -5
Let’s say this again:-)) When you say "Even STAT has Afrezza as inferior to RAA for TIR unless you take two doses per meal" is clearly incorrect at the 1hr mark. The RAAs are not even close. As Dr. Kendall works through his dosing two things will happen; basal levels will be increased; and meal time initial dose will also be increased. Both will increase TIR at the 2hr mark without the second puff. Lets see what he comes out with but this I believe is where he is headed with the T1s. For the T2s its easy, afrezza first, afrezza only and go big on the dose with no worries. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10219/8k-filing?page=5#ixzz5LLI6X0Dh |
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