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Post by Clement on Aug 9, 2018 6:49:56 GMT -5
There used to be a lot of conjecture on the board about a short squeeze. Could someone please educate me on the possibility of that happening in the near future? Is that what Michael K is talking about when he refers to the "Russian roulette players"? If an angel investor/white knight were to come in with funding and/or taking out DF's debt (simultaneously freeing up tied up assets, etc.) putting the financial status of the company on much more favorable and solid footing, it would definitely cause some fireworks, lets just put it that way. Many will say/have bet that is fairy tale thinking but you asked so figured I would give you that answer. "They" will also tell you that the short position is hedged so you would not see any effect from that, it's a zero sum game so whether or not that particular short position is in fact hedged, it's a zero sum game so it's short somewhere, that is why when it was at .13 it couldn't be unwound overnight IMO, that is why the DTC based on volume and shares owed is a factor even though some/many discount that share/volume mechanism. "They" = some of the faceless creatures/aliens you see pop up and bandied about from time to time whether here or other well know hangouts Zero sum game: So if there's good news or change of opinion among the shorts, the stock price would grind up relentlessly ......... rather than explosively?
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Post by markado on Aug 9, 2018 7:32:15 GMT -5
What we don't know is what % of shorted shares are "naked," nor what % are retail vs. institutional. It's the retail shorts that would drive the height of the squeeze, as the institutions will be out with the "touch of a button," and retail shorts will be left begging for shares at the mercy of longs enjoying the return of value to one of the most maliciously manipulated stocks in "history." The malice, here, isn't just to mnkd or mnkd longs, but to the quality of life of millions of potential patients who could/would go underserved, if Afrezza were forced to fail. I don't believe that will happen, but, by definition, shorting this stock is nothing short of sociopathic, in the word's literal sense. That being the case, may the shorts (institutional, naked, retail) reap what they have sewn.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 9, 2018 7:35:15 GMT -5
Satisfying the Deerfield debt would return MannKind's assets to the company, putting it on much more favorable footing for non-dilutive financing to fund future drug development. Alfred Mann secured $100 million in financing from Deerfield many years ago when MannKind was still a startup biotechnology drug development company and all of the company's intellectual property, patents, technosphere drug candidates, and even the manufacturing facility in Danbury were put up as collateral.
I would think, now that company's Technosphere pulmonary drug delivery technology is proving itself and becoming more valuable, that MannKind will no longer give up 100% of its assets as security for non-dilutive funding (assuming the Deerfield debt is first satisfied) and will selectively choose which assets will be used as security.
For example, if MannKind were to secure financing to fund development of more API, then the rights to the new drugs would serve as collateral but NOT the intellectual property underlying its technology.
With only $23 million principle remaining on the Deerfield Notes (Tranches 1, 4 and B) it's entirely possible for a venture capitalist, investment firm or pharmaceutical company to buy into MannKind, pay off the Deerfield debt and secure intellectual rights to drugs (commercial or development) which it believes have potential to become big revenue-generators. It's a company's assets which give it leverage in the financial markets. As long as Deerfield holds first right to all MannKind's asset, the CFO doesn't have the leverage needed to secure future funding at favorable terms.
It's quite possible that an announcement of an Agreement, where a 'white knight' steps forward to fund MannKind's future, could indeed cause a short squeeze, particularly if it were to provide MannKind with 2 years of runway for expanding commercialization of Afrezza and expanding development of more Techosphere API in its pipeline.
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Post by markado on Aug 9, 2018 7:36:06 GMT -5
Now, instead of playing Texas Hold'em with we longs, maybe it'll turn into a game of Chicken between the shorts. Who's going to jerk the wheel first?
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Post by liane on Aug 9, 2018 7:38:54 GMT -5
As hard as it's been on shareholders and the company, I applaud Mike's strategy to pay down the debt and be free of that onerous burden. Something our country could learn a lesson from.
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2018 7:42:21 GMT -5
As hard as it's been on shareholders and the company, I applaud Mike's strategy to pay down the debt and be free of that onerous burden. SOmething our country could learn a lesson frm.Heh (and I do not care about the typo.)
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Post by liane on Aug 9, 2018 7:46:18 GMT -5
As hard as it's been on shareholders and the company, I applaud Mike's strategy to pay down the debt and be free of that onerous burden. SOmething our country could learn a lesson frm.Heh (and I do not care about the typo.) Must be a Freudian slip
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 9, 2018 7:46:40 GMT -5
As hard as it's been on shareholders and the company, I applaud Mike's strategy to pay down the debt and be free of that onerous burden. SOmething our country could learn a lesson frm.Heh (and I do not care about the typo.) liane is a doctor...you should see her handwriting!
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 9, 2018 8:33:45 GMT -5
What we don't know is what % of shorted shares are "naked," nor what % are retail vs. institutional. It's the retail shorts that would drive the height of the squeeze, as the institutions will be out with the "touch of a button," and retail shorts will be left begging for shares at the mercy of longs enjoying the return of value to one of the most maliciously manipulated stocks in "history." The malice, here, isn't just to mnkd or mnkd longs, but to the quality of life of millions of potential patients who could/would go underserved, if Afrezza were forced to fail. I don't believe that will happen, but, by definition, shorting this stock is nothing short of sociopathic, in the word's literal sense. That being the case, may the shorts (institutional, naked, retail) reap what they have sewn. There are virtually zero naked shorted shares in 2018. The reason is the amount of dilution over the last 12 months coupled with the Mann trust selling their shares. Proof is the share lending rates of around five percent at fidelity and schwab
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2018 8:43:47 GMT -5
What we don't know is what % of shorted shares are "naked," nor what % are retail vs. institutional. It's the retail shorts that would drive the height of the squeeze, as the institutions will be out with the "touch of a button," and retail shorts will be left begging for shares at the mercy of longs enjoying the return of value to one of the most maliciously manipulated stocks in "history." The malice, here, isn't just to mnkd or mnkd longs, but to the quality of life of millions of potential patients who could/would go underserved, if Afrezza were forced to fail. I don't believe that will happen, but, by definition, shorting this stock is nothing short of sociopathic, in the word's literal sense. That being the case, may the shorts (institutional, naked, retail) reap what they have sewn. There are virtually zero naked shorted shares in 2018. The reason is the amount of dilution over the last 12 months coupled with the Mann trust selling their shares. Proof is the share lending rates of around five percent at fidelity and schwab That's what they said 2007-2009. 666.
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Post by derek2 on Aug 9, 2018 10:56:30 GMT -5
There are virtually zero naked shorted shares in 2018. The reason is the amount of dilution over the last 12 months coupled with the Mann trust selling their shares. Proof is the share lending rates of around five percent at fidelity and schwab That's what they said 2007-2009. 666. The fails to deliver report gives a good handle on outstanding naked short shares, with the grand total of all outstanding fails updated daily. The latest report shows that as of July 12, only 63594 shares had not been delivered after a short sale, and in that 2 week period leading up to it, there had been a low of a measly 758 shares outstanding without loaned shares delivered, meaning that there were essentially no naked shorts outstanding at that point. When people talk about "counterfeiting shares" and "distorting the float", it relies on a large number of naked short shares staying undelivered - shares sold to people with no loaned shares to back it up. That just doesn't happen in the case of MNKD. You have short term bobbles up to about 259K shares that quickly get underlying shares delivered within a few days. This out of 140M outstanding shares. Even 1M FTD would represent <1% of outstanding shares, and that has been an extremely rare occurrence which once again gets corrected within days.
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2018 11:06:45 GMT -5
That's what they said 2007-2009. 666. The fails to deliver report gives a good handle on outstanding naked short shares, with the grand total of all outstanding fails updated daily. The latest report shows that as of July 12, only 63594 shares had not been delivered after a short sale, and in that 2 week period leading up to it, there had been a low of a measly 758 shares outstanding without loaned shares delivered, meaning that there were essentially no naked shorts outstanding at that point. When people talk about "counterfeiting shares" and "distorting the float", it relies on a large number of naked short shares staying undelivered - shares sold to people with no loaned shares to back it up. That just doesn't happen in the case of MNKD. You have short term bobbles up to about 259K shares that quickly get underlying shares delivered within a few days. This out of 140M outstanding shares. Even 1M FTD would represent <1% of outstanding shares, and that has been an extremely rare occurrence which once again gets corrected within days. Madoff comes to mind. Heh. Just sayin. *Thanks for report Derek2
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Post by minnlearner on Aug 9, 2018 11:40:37 GMT -5
That's what they said 2007-2009. 666. The fails to deliver report gives a good handle on outstanding naked short shares, with the grand total of all outstanding fails updated daily. The latest report shows that as of July 12, only 63594 shares had not been delivered after a short sale, and in that 2 week period leading up to it, there had been a low of a measly 758 shares outstanding without loaned shares delivered, meaning that there were essentially no naked shorts outstanding at that point. When people talk about "counterfeiting shares" and "distorting the float", it relies on a large number of naked short shares staying undelivered - shares sold to people with no loaned shares to back it up. That just doesn't happen in the case of MNKD. You have short term bobbles up to about 259K shares that quickly get underlying shares delivered within a few days. This out of 140M outstanding shares. Even 1M FTD would represent <1% of outstanding shares, and that has been an extremely rare occurrence which once again gets corrected within days. derek2: I, for one, REALLY appreciate your explanation. I am not sure I completely understand but that is due to my lack of knowledge/learning. I am trying to read up on it. With your explanations and everyone else adding to the posts, I feel I get a great education here. You explaining, Peppy charting and everyone chipping in, it really helps. Note: I got in a while ago when I was told of a great opportunity which I looked up and saw a needed great product to help the world. Also, I thought a great quick opportunity to make some $$. Duh. Anyway, it didn't take off like our Amazon did but I do still think it is on the launch pad and all we need is $omeone with a big match!. Again, THANKS , you all are really appreciated.
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Post by standup on Aug 9, 2018 12:57:30 GMT -5
The fails to deliver report gives a good handle on outstanding naked short shares, with the grand total of all outstanding fails updated daily. The latest report shows that as of July 12, only 63594 shares had not been delivered after a short sale, and in that 2 week period leading up to it, there had been a low of a measly 758 shares outstanding without loaned shares delivered, meaning that there were essentially no naked shorts outstanding at that point. When people talk about "counterfeiting shares" and "distorting the float", it relies on a large number of naked short shares staying undelivered - shares sold to people with no loaned shares to back it up. That just doesn't happen in the case of MNKD. You have short term bobbles up to about 259K shares that quickly get underlying shares delivered within a few days. This out of 140M outstanding shares. Even 1M FTD would represent <1% of outstanding shares, and that has been an extremely rare occurrence which once again gets corrected within days. derek2: I, for one, REALLY appreciate your explanation. I am not sure I completely understand but that is due to my lack of knowledge/learning. I am trying to read up on it. With your explanations and everyone else adding to the posts, I feel I get a great education here. You explaining, Peppy charting and everyone chipping in, it really helps. Note: I got in a while ago when I was told of a great opportunity which I looked up and saw a needed great product to help the world. Also, I thought a great quick opportunity to make some $$. Duh. Anyway, it didn't take off like our Amazon did but I do still think it is on the launch pad and all we need is $omeone with a big match!. Again, THANKS , you all are really appreciated. Keep in mind that many shorts turnover their shares fairly frequently. A lot can happen between reporting periods. As with this last big price drop I'm sure there was a decent number of naked shorts but they bought back in quickly after the nice gain (for them).
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Post by cjc04 on Aug 9, 2018 13:26:01 GMT -5
That's what they said 2007-2009. 666. The fails to deliver report gives a good handle on outstanding naked short shares, with the grand total of all outstanding fails updated daily. The latest report shows that as of July 12, only 63594 shares had not been delivered after a short sale, and in that 2 week period leading up to it, there had been a low of a measly 758 shares outstanding without loaned shares delivered, meaning that there were essentially no naked shorts outstanding at that point. When people talk about "counterfeiting shares" and "distorting the float", it relies on a large number of naked short shares staying undelivered - shares sold to people with no loaned shares to back it up. That just doesn't happen in the case of MNKD. You have short term bobbles up to about 259K shares that quickly get underlying shares delivered within a few days. This out of 140M outstanding shares. Even 1M FTD would represent <1% of outstanding shares, and that has been an extremely rare occurrence which once again gets corrected within days. and do the shorts really need to be naked?? I mean, there are plenty of shares to borrow, thanks to all the “loyal” shareholders who’ve been brainwashed into thinking lending them out is such a great opportunity.
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