|
|
Post by hellodolly on Aug 16, 2018 7:10:42 GMT -5
Rather than bring up the old thread, which I found today, I wanted to provide an update of where we stand for those that wanted to participate. It was very interesting to read the comments in January 2018 as we began the year. I will bump up the original thread at the end of the year, but I wanted to report what I’ve found.
First, a recap of predictions by those who were willing to play along at the beginning of 2018:
hellodolly 34,758
Figglebird 108,688
Compound26 52,000
Clement 116,428
Thekid2499 42,123
Parrerob 48,517
Tchalaa 113,100
Xanet 69,572
Traderdennis 36,500
Lsl428 51,999
Cretin 32,747
Jay1ajay1a 52,709
Cjm18 32,999
Afrezza Script Data
2015 19,604 Tx
2016 16,005 Tx
2017 17,379 Tx
2018 14,734 Tx (To date)
Source: Symphony Script Data (Proboards Thread: Afrezza Script Counts)
With twenty-one (21) more reporting weeks left in the year (8/10 - 12/28), we are averaging 475 Tx per week.
Tx averages per week:
2015 377 Tx per week
2016 307 Tx per week
2017 334 Tx per week
2018 475 Tx per week.
We are averaging weekly numbers of 475 Tx per week in 2018. If we continue with that, and stay flat, we will add an additional 9,975 Tx with and EOY total 24,709. That is an increase of over 5,105 scripts better than Sanofi under their control in 2015. If I calculated my math that will also be a 29% increase over last year’s final tally.
Please check my math buy I feel better about where the trend lines are headed and where Mike and Co have taken this, as compared to where it was. As you can see, this is a battle in the streets and the offices of the doctors and the insurance providers. I do believe we will break the 475 average this year. This mini-project is based on no new growth, for easier computation with my very basic college algebra math skills back in 1984. The winner of the projection may be a bust as everyone over reported their guesses.
|
|
|
|
Post by harryx1 on Aug 16, 2018 10:43:03 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Aug 16, 2018 10:58:09 GMT -5
Cmon Harry, you know better than to post inaccurate sales numbers. You are posting retail sales from symphony. 2nd Quarter 2018 booked sales was $3.9 million. I know first quarter was not 14 million in sales. |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Aug 16, 2018 11:37:51 GMT -5
I'd forgotten about that prediction thread, am not happy to see that I'm likely to be the winner of that contest of who would guess closest to the actual number of scripts. Clement and tchalaa, was hoping you'd be fighting it out for best guess!
|
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Aug 16, 2018 12:14:16 GMT -5
I'd forgotten about that prediction thread, am not happy to see that I'm likely to be the winner of that contest of who would guess closest to the actual number of scripts. Clement and tchalaa, was hoping you'd be fighting it out for best guess! Yeah, the original thread has a lot of comments that are interesting... |
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Aug 16, 2018 12:41:07 GMT -5
It's way too early to be predicting end results of 2018 scripts and revenue. The next couple of months could render August year-to-date script data almost irrelevant.
|
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Aug 16, 2018 13:21:39 GMT -5
I'm waiting till we're closer to the end of the year to put in my prediction ... but, how is the script count adjusted for the actual scripts now having more units?
|
|
|
|
Post by tinkusr8215 on Aug 16, 2018 14:42:03 GMT -5
Cmon Harry, you know better than to post inaccurate sales numbers. You are posting retail sales from symphony. 2nd Quarter 2018 booked sales was $3.9 million. I know first quarter was not 14 million in sales. shorty...  |
|
|
|
Post by casualinvestor on Aug 16, 2018 15:17:19 GMT -5
We should stop focusing on scripts and focus more on sales $$$. Not because of greed or cash flow concerns, but because $$ are a much better indicator of # of units sold. IE, real sales growth.
Even when trying to determine growth of the # of Afrezza users, weekly Rx numbers are not a good indicator because of what happens when someone transitions to 3-month scripts.
|
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Aug 16, 2018 18:48:00 GMT -5
It's way too early to be predicting end results of 2018 scripts and revenue. The next couple of months could render August year-to-date script data almost irrelevant. Looking at hard data and including averages to compute projections isn't full proof but it does provide you with something to have your morning coffee, to ponder. If nothing changes, my math should be in the ball park. |
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Aug 16, 2018 18:50:48 GMT -5
I'm waiting till we're closer to the end of the year to put in my prediction ... but, how is the script count adjusted for the actual scripts now having more units? I'm, not sure how it is adjusted but, it looks like we are far ahead of last year #s for the weekly average Tx. We do make exceptions for those over 65 that want to enter this game in December, more of a "PB community feel good" thing I do, lol. |
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Aug 16, 2018 18:53:05 GMT -5
We should stop focusing on scripts and focus more on sales $$$. Not because of greed or cash flow concerns, but because $$ are a much better indicator of # of units sold. IE, real sales growth. Even when trying to determine growth of the # of Afrezza users, weekly Rx numbers are not a good indicator because of what happens when someone transitions to 3-month scripts. I can switch to $$$ in 2019 or a combo of both. You make good points to consider. |
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Aug 16, 2018 19:45:56 GMT -5
Does the combo come with fries and a drink?
We senior citizens have got to reap the benefits of this "PB community feel good" thing. Ha!
|
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Aug 16, 2018 21:10:15 GMT -5
Does the combo come with fries and a drink? We senior citizens have got to reap the benefits of this "PB community feel good" thing. Ha! I want it super sized! |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 17, 2018 0:33:53 GMT -5
We should stop focusing on scripts and focus more on sales $$$. Not because of greed or cash flow concerns, but because $$ are a much better indicator of # of units sold. IE, real sales growth. Even when trying to determine growth of the # of Afrezza users, weekly Rx numbers are not a good indicator because of what happens when someone transitions to 3-month scripts. We should stop focusing on both and focus on what to do without dollars.  |
|
