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Post by bigchungus91354 on Feb 19, 2019 15:43:35 GMT -5
Volume coming in. If we can keep this rate, and Mike C delivers Rx over 1000, and we get another license deal, this could go over $2! Mannkind millionaires ahead!! not likely to be sustained for much time if at all. Way too much overhang between 1.60-1.90. Just the toxic nature of warrants. I know the warrants will be a strong downward force, but if we get lucky we can ride some pops over 1.60. And as long as they can push those Rx numbers up the warrants will either be exercised this year or expire. This really can be a $2 stock one day! |
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 19, 2019 15:51:07 GMT -5
not likely to be sustained for much time if at all. Way too much overhang between 1.60-1.90. Just the toxic nature of warrants. I know the warrants will be a strong downward force, but if we get lucky we can ride some pops over 1.60. And as long as they can push those Rx numbers up the warrants will either be exercised this year or expire. This really can be a $2 stock one day! it will take far greater than 1K scripts per week. 3-5K per week gets around cash flow break even. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 19, 2019 15:53:11 GMT -5
Yes it can ... probably on Friday.
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 19, 2019 15:55:16 GMT -5
I know the warrants will be a strong downward force, but if we get lucky we can ride some pops over 1.60. And as long as they can push those Rx numbers up the warrants will either be exercised this year or expire. This really can be a $2 stock one day! it will take far greater than 1K scripts per week. 3-5K per week gets around cash flow break even. Neither of you two know what you’re talking about |
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Post by peppy on Feb 19, 2019 16:18:38 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 1,534,667 shares. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 2,696,870 shares. MNKD $1.49. +0.04. +2.76% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 19, 2019 17:40:03 GMT -5
it will take far greater than 1K scripts per week. 3-5K per week gets around cash flow break even. Neither of you two know what you’re talking about 😂 |
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 19, 2019 19:40:11 GMT -5
it will take far greater than 1K scripts per week. 3-5K per week gets around cash flow break even. Neither of you two know what you’re talking about If 600 weekly scripts are going to yield $5 million in net revenue, then 5 times gets you to 25 Million, which is still less than the quarterly cash burn rate. Marketing expenses will rise as the company scales up to 3-5K scripts. Tell me where I am wrong bother. I actually think 5K won't get it to cash flow break even due to the incremental marketing expenses that will occur to get there. |
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Post by longliner on Feb 19, 2019 20:01:49 GMT -5
Neither of you two know what you’re talking about If 600 weekly scripts are going to yield $5 million in net revenue, then 5 times gets you to 25 Million, which is still less than the quarterly cash burn rate. Marketing expenses will rise as the company scales up to 3-5K scripts. Tell me where I am wrong bother. I actually think 5K won't get it to cash flow break even due to the incremental marketing expenses that will occur to get there. Trader, if you were referring to 600 scrips at $5 million gross, I would agree that five times that would get you to 25 million gross. $5 million net will have a higher cost of goods (per unit) than five times that volume (again unit cost) as the cost will drop through volume. I agree the cost to market the product will increase as scale increases. Just my 2 cents. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 19, 2019 20:16:12 GMT -5
 So trader is saying that if the weekly scripts go up 5 fold to 3K to net 25 Million in net revenue ... that it is still less than the quarterly cash burn rate. Seem like our net revenue will be 25 Million x 12 weeks to get a quarterly net revenue. So, that would be 300 Million a quarter net revenue. Is our quarterly cash burn rate higher than that? Also, marketing expenses will go down because advertising is gone and we are selling T Shirts like hot cakes. At that point ... we will have to decide whether to sell T Shirts or Afrezza. |
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 19, 2019 20:30:10 GMT -5
If 600 weekly scripts are going to yield $5 million in net revenue, then 5 times gets you to 25 Million, which is still less than the quarterly cash burn rate. Marketing expenses will rise as the company scales up to 3-5K scripts. Tell me where I am wrong bother. I actually think 5K won't get it to cash flow break even due to the incremental marketing expenses that will occur to get there. Trader, if you were referring to 600 scrips at $5 million gross, I would agree that five times that would get you to 25 million gross. $5 million net will have a higher cost of goods (per unit) than five times that volume (again unit cost) as the cost will drop through volume. I agree the cost to market the product will increase as scale increases. Just my 2 cents. Cost of goods is not the problem. Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) is the problem. That is running at $19M on the last filing (2018Q3) and that does not drop so the revenue needs to make at least that much profit to break even. Cost of Goods and R&D are both outside that number. On the flip side milestones, etc. contribute to the revenue number so it's not Afrezza revenue alone. |
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 19, 2019 21:31:24 GMT -5
So trader is saying that if the weekly scripts go up 5 fold to 3K to net 25 Million in net revenue ... that it is still less than the quarterly cash burn rate. Seem like our net revenue will be 25 Million x 12 weeks to get a quarterly net revenue. So, that would be 300 Million a quarter net revenue. Is our quarterly cash burn rate higher than that? Also, marketing expenses will go down because advertising is gone and we are selling T Shirts like hot cakes. At that point ... we will have to decide whether to sell T Shirts or Afrezza. 3k weekly scripts is 25 million per quarter. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Feb 19, 2019 22:37:52 GMT -5
My crystal ball says Q3 19 net revenue for Afrezza will be >= $9.7M
Might trigger moass 😊
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Post by traderdennis on Feb 19, 2019 22:51:18 GMT -5
My crystal ball says Q3 19 net revenue for Afrezza will be >= $9.7M Might trigger moass 😊 Why because the company will only burn 16 million in cash? No short squeeze until profitability and positive cash flow. And profitability is easier to achieve. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 19, 2019 22:59:32 GMT -5
trader - okay, guess I was confused when you stated a weekly rate versus a quarterly cash burn. So, 3k scripts will equal $25 million per quarter ... and, didn't Mike C say that break even will be $7 or $8 million per month? It still sounds like break even is about 3k weekly scripts.
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Post by buyitonsale on Feb 19, 2019 23:13:26 GMT -5
My crystal ball says Q3 19 net revenue for Afrezza will be >= $9.7M Might trigger moass 😊 Why because the company will only burn 16 million in cash? No short squeeze until profitability and positive cash flow. And profitability is easier to achieve. Trends dominate, and market looks out 6 to 12 months... My 20K shares @ 1.31 swing position is staying tuned for Q3 19 ER or $7, whichever comes first. Plus, I’m still waiting for .90 to .95 range you mentioned after the offering ... to load up 😊 |
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So trader is saying that if the weekly scripts go up 5 fold to 3K to net 25 Million in net revenue ... that it is still less than the quarterly cash burn rate. Seem like our net revenue will be 25 Million x 12 weeks to get a quarterly net revenue. So, that would be 300 Million a quarter net revenue. Is our quarterly cash burn rate higher than that?
