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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 9, 2015 13:57:42 GMT -5
Looks like we're running at 7.60 again today. Do you foretell a breakout if we close above 7.60? Also... when do we have some confirmation that this is the fabled squeeze we've all been waiting for for so long? 7.64 was the high put in on 8/27, which was the last high after the big weekly bearish outside reversal on huge volume after the partnership announcement on 8/11. So would expect some natural resistance in this area as those who purchased from here up to the 10.08 high of partnership announcement may decide to get out whole. Having said that it will be interesting to see what shares get freed up after today's run and any follow through over the next couple of days as most have noticed that they are bidding up the interest paid to borrow shares: Symbol: MNKD Availability: NAExchanges: NASDAQ Let's see if this changes much overnight and the next couple of days for that matter...if shares continue to remain tight, then you could say the squeeze hasn't even really started yet...as they are banking (hopeful) that some long positions liquidate at break even over the course of this run into the prices seen last Aug. |
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Post by goodby1 on Feb 10, 2015 12:44:32 GMT -5
Looks like what you predicted is playing itself out. Big battle here at precisely the 7.64 range. I suppose if this price point is taken out then we can expect some good run up...
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Post by daduke38 on Feb 10, 2015 12:48:06 GMT -5
Joey,
Seems to be resitance at $7.67. Are you seeing it?
Sorry, you have. Missed your post above.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 10, 2015 13:43:14 GMT -5
Looks like we're running at 7.60 again today. Do you foretell a breakout if we close above 7.60? Also... when do we have some confirmation that this is the fabled squeeze we've all been waiting for for so long? 7.64 was the high put in on 8/27, which was the last high after the big weekly bearish outside reversal on huge volume after the partnership announcement on 8/11. So would expect some natural resistance in this area as those who purchased from here up to the 10.08 high of partnership announcement may decide to get out whole. Having said that it will be interesting to see what shares get freed up after today's run and any follow through over the next couple of days as most have noticed that they are bidding up the interest paid to borrow shares: Symbol: MNKD Availability: NAExchanges: NASDAQ Let's see if this changes much overnight and the next couple of days for that matter...if shares continue to remain tight, then you could say the squeeze hasn't even really started yet...as they are banking (hopeful) that some long positions liquidate at break even over the course of this run into the prices seen last Aug.So early this am. it still showed NA, just pulled it up and at IB it is currently showing the following: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 200'000Exchanges: NASDAQ So there has been some short covering and/or long liquidation/or short term profit taking from some swing traders freeing up some shares at this point...if it continues to climb I would suspect an eventual pullback to the recent 6.65-6.80 breakout area...maybe coinciding with the subdued momentum from launch announcement, etc...of course if we continue to grind sideways through resistance then maybe we can get another push higher in anticipation of conference call later this month....I would look at the high open interest contracts centered around the 7 strike through next fridays (1/20) expiration (approx. 15k contracts combined) and wouldn't be surprised to see them (mm's) try and pin it there at the close on that day imo, so would expect that area to act like a magnet at some point between then and now which would correlate with the pullback area mentioned as well. |
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Post by shortslaver on Feb 10, 2015 13:51:46 GMT -5
So early this am. it still showed NA, just pulled it up and at IB it is currently showing the following: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 200'000Exchanges: NASDAQ So there has been some short covering and/or long liquidation/or short term profit taking from some swing traders freeing up some shares at this point...if it continues to climb I would suspect an eventual pullback to the recent 6.65-6.80 breakout area...maybe coinciding with the subdued momentum from launch announcement, etc...of course if we continue to grind sideways through resistance then maybe we can get another push higher in anticipation of conference call later this month....I would look at the high open interest contracts centered around the 7 strike through next fridays (1/20) expiration (approx. 15k contracts combined) and wouldn't be surprised to see them (mm's) try and pin it there at the close on that day imo, so would expect that area to act like a magnet at some point between then and now which would correlate with the pullback area mentioned as well. Thanks. I'll look at the 7.00 range on pullback as an opportunity to buy. I also believe that nRx numbers will be more important than they should over the next few months. Especially the first few that come out, I suspect that if they are very low getting a pullback to 7.00 will be easy. However, if they're actually pretty good then all bets are off. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2015 16:23:48 GMT -5
I see the 7 range as a possible pull back as well, with hopefully the 200 day lending some support.
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Post by shortslaver on Feb 11, 2015 15:38:50 GMT -5
Certainly approached 7 faster than I thought it might. It could retrace further I'm sure, but we are ahead of where I thought we'd be right now. Trend is still up if not a bit turbulent.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 12, 2015 11:48:02 GMT -5
7.64 was the high put in on 8/27, which was the last high after the big weekly bearish outside reversal on huge volume after the partnership announcement on 8/11. So would expect some natural resistance in this area as those who purchased from here up to the 10.08 high of partnership announcement may decide to get out whole. Having said that it will be interesting to see what shares get freed up after today's run and any follow through over the next couple of days as most have noticed that they are bidding up the interest paid to borrow shares: Symbol: MNKD Availability: NAExchanges: NASDAQ Let's see if this changes much overnight and the next couple of days for that matter...if shares continue to remain tight, then you could say the squeeze hasn't even really started yet...as they are banking (hopeful) that some long positions liquidate at break even over the course of this run into the prices seen last Aug.So early this am. it still showed NA, just pulled it up and at IB it is currently showing the following: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 200'000Exchanges: NASDAQ So there has been some short covering and/or long liquidation/or short term profit taking from some swing traders freeing up some shares at this point...if it continues to climb I would suspect an eventual pullback to the recent 6.65-6.80 breakout area...maybe coinciding with the subdued momentum from launch announcement, etc...of course if we continue to grind sideways through resistance then maybe we can get another push higher in anticipation of conference call later this month....I would look at the high open interest contracts centered around the 7 strike through next fridays (1/20) expiration (approx. 15k contracts combined) and wouldn't be surprised to see them (mm's) try and pin it there at the close on that day imo, so would expect that area to act like a magnet at some point between then and now which would correlate with the pullback area mentioned as well. Playing out to the "T" so to speak....see increase in shares available below, not expecting much change between now and next friday as it ranges between the breakout area as support and the low 7's (void of any significant news releases): Symbol: MNKD Availability: 650'000Exchanges: NASDAQ |
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 12, 2015 12:10:16 GMT -5
So early this am. it still showed NA, just pulled it up and at IB it is currently showing the following: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 200'000Exchanges: NASDAQ So there has been some short covering and/or long liquidation/or short term profit taking from some swing traders freeing up some shares at this point...if it continues to climb I would suspect an eventual pullback to the recent 6.65-6.80 breakout area...maybe coinciding with the subdued momentum from launch announcement, etc...of course if we continue to grind sideways through resistance then maybe we can get another push higher in anticipation of conference call later this month....I would look at the high open interest contracts centered around the 7 strike through next fridays (1/20) expiration (approx. 15k contracts combined) and wouldn't be surprised to see them (mm's) try and pin it there at the close on that day imo, so would expect that area to act like a magnet at some point between then and now which would correlate with the pullback area mentioned as well. Playing out to the "T" so to speak....see increase in shares available below, not expecting much change between now and next friday as it ranges between the breakout area as support and the low 7's (void of any significant news releases): Symbol: MNKD Availability: 650'000Exchanges: NASDAQ So would a simple correlation for this be that as Available shares goes up, the chances of pullback also increase? If so, then when the Available shares was N/A we then had the price spike then shares became available and we get the sharp drop in price. So is this how this roller coaster works?!  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 12, 2015 12:33:24 GMT -5
Playing out to the "T" so to speak....see increase in shares available below, not expecting much change between now and next friday as it ranges between the breakout area as support and the low 7's (void of any significant news releases): Symbol: MNKD Availability: 650'000Exchanges: NASDAQ So would a simple correlation for this be that as Available shares goes up, the chances of pullback also increase? If so, then when the Available shares was N/A we then had the price spike then shares became available and we get the sharp drop in price. So is this how this roller coaster works?!  That is how it has been playing out while they try to continue to control the price with their significant SI...I also believe the MM's/options specialists are taking advantage along the way while they add to returns via taking advantage of the nice vig/spread in the yield between shares lent out and borrowed as well as what is being collected as premiums continue to evaporate upon each week, month's, leap's, expirations up until this point...the long's unfortunately have been caught up in the vicious cycle while that has been occurring as they wait for their eventual payday...hard for them to trade with it as they are always fearful that they will miss being in when some white swan news event takes place. Hope you didn't mind the youtube reference...that movie was a classic and he was great in it. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 12, 2015 13:37:51 GMT -5
So would a simple correlation for this be that as Available shares goes up, the chances of pullback also increase? If so, then when the Available shares was N/A we then had the price spike then shares became available and we get the sharp drop in price. So is this how this roller coaster works?! That is how it has been playing out while they try to continue to control the price with their significant SI...I also believe the MM's/options specialists are taking advantage along the way while they add to returns via taking advantage of the nice vig/spread in the yield between shares lent out and borrowed as well as what is being collected as premiums continue to evaporate upon each week, month's, leap's, expirations up until this point...the long's unfortunately have been caught up in the vicious cycle while that has been occurring as they wait for their eventual payday...hard for them to trade with it as they are always fearful that they will miss being in when some white swan news event takes place. Hope you didn't mind the youtube reference...that movie was a classic and he was great in it. Yes, the MM/options specialists are using MNKD as their own ATM!!! |
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Post by BD on Feb 12, 2015 23:36:22 GMT -5
There's a MNKD thread over on my LVS board, lvs.freeforums.net , and inkwellandgood posted this earlier today on it:lvs.freeforums.net/post/9807/threadI'm copying the post here because I think it's a good fit. Let's drag inkwell into the picture on this board!
-BD------------------------------------------- I noticed a bunch of posts on this thread and discussion of starting positions and decided to poke around a little. In anticipation of checking things out further I signed up on Liane’s, and BD’s other board Tuesday nite, but haven’t yet had the chance to look inside. I was prepping to add my two cents on a purely technical basis, specifically the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but before I could, the market more or less beat me to it, but I post anyhow as it may be useful. I assume most of you know this indicator but since MNKD is a text book case, I’ll continue for anybody who wants to follow a very simple, nearly irrefutable signal. Essentially any stock with an RSI near 80 is in unsustainable territory. Because RSI is constantly readjusting contextually against the strength of the current surrounding trend rather than say a constant, it’s a fairly no nonsense tool. It won’t tell you how far or how long it will pull back, or whether it will turn right around and go still higher, but it does pretty much throw a red light that says, this pace of buying, right now, can’t last and that today or very soon the stock WILL cool its rate of climb. RSI goes from 1 to 100. Anything over 70 is considered very overbought, anything under 30 is oversold, 50 is neutral and the area surrounding it 45-55 is often an inflection point for trend reversals. Staying constantly above 47-48 indicates a strong stock, as staying below indicates a struggling stock. Anything near or beyond the extremities of 20 or 80 is WAY oversold / overbought. Since stocks can climb forever, but can’t go lower than 0, depending on history etc., a stock at or below 30-20 on its way to biting the dust makes WAY oversold not necessarily a buyable situation. On the other hand relative to its own blaze, even a stock on fire is susceptible to intermittent cooling. To clarify a stock does not necessarily have to bounce over the full spectrum or hit 50± to re-reverse. A strong stock could spend all year between 55 and 80±, just as weak one could lay under 40. But a stock staying indefinitely around 80? the price chart would have to be nearly vertical, aka not bloody likely. These things considered, my plan was to caution to wait at the very least until the daily RSI was back under 70. Looking back over past support levels, to determine what that might mean in terms of stock price, I penciled in 6.83± as a spot it could likely hit, possibly on its way lower but a likely neighborhood for a standing buy order. Could go much lower, could stop a bit higher. The main take away being, if I wanted in, I would be very cautious above 7. I wasn’t expecting that retracement to happen all at once, let alone the next day. That said the stock hit a low yesterday of 691 with an RSI in the low 60s. My thought is its likely to go lower but at this point that is more of a pure guess. Considering where it was 691 is close enough. If one thinks the trend up is strong and doesn’t want to use their crystal ball to catch the absolute bottom, RSI says it’s at least back in safer territory for a toe dip. Over the last year MKND crossed the RSI overbought line just 3 times and kissed it once. To illustrate just how well it conforms to this signal, here’s a list of dates with their corresponding numbers, including subsequent close and intermediate follow up actions. date, RSI, price (x100sh) 01/25……………71………………660 03/14……………43………………560 03/28……………14………………410 06/03……………87…………...…1033 07/8.……………48………………6970 08/15……………25…………...….696 10/13……………12………………462 11/17……….…..68………………695 11/24……….…..53………………617 12/16……….…..30………………507 02/10……….…..79………………788 (h), 755 (close) 12/16……….…..63………………691 (l), 700
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Post by goodby1 on Feb 13, 2015 15:44:49 GMT -5
OK... so you geniuses (which I say with not a shred of sarcasm).... you have pretty much predicted every move of MNKD over the last 3 days: after hitting the 7.60 resistance, it pulled back to the 7.00 support, it dipped BELOW the 7.00 support and MIRACULOUSLY rebounded back to 7.00.
I think you all were watching for these to play out over the course of 3 weeks or so... or even 3 months... but instead we got it all in pretty much 3 days.
Whence to now?
I am ALL EARS!
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Post by liane on Feb 13, 2015 16:01:09 GMT -5
And 7 it is - right on the nose! Fancy that!
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Post by savzak on Feb 13, 2015 16:04:54 GMT -5
And 7 it is - right on the nose! Fancy that! I've always been a bit of a skeptic on all things manipulation, including opex manipulation. But we closed at $7 and where there's smoke there's fire, or so they say. Next Friday will be interesting when the monthly's expire. There's more open interest in the 6.50 to 7 range than any where else. We shall see. |
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