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Post by babaoriley on Apr 27, 2015 12:20:23 GMT -5
I took a step back like the title of this thread suggests; I fell off a pier.
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 27, 2015 12:20:33 GMT -5
It does suck watching MNKD continue to drop as AMPH & SNY rise!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Apr 27, 2015 15:33:18 GMT -5
Let's take a look at On Balance Volume, when looking at this indicator of strength of a trend and divergences it plays right into the "borrowed" decline that has taken place the last several weeks during this quiet period. Here is the explanation of how it works: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-balance_volumeessentially it takes the closing price and assigns a + or - to total volume for that particular closing day and then it is plotted on a graph. I have mentioned the 10yr. chart for MNKD and the large potential H&S (head and shoulders) pattern that looked to be forming...well coinciding with that, the period leading up to now with the s/p decline if you pull up the OBV, you can see a distinct divergence with the rise in OBV as opposed to the decline in s/p...what this is saying IMO is that clearly the drop in price from the time of the GS call is not being met with real selling rather validates the imbalance due to "borrowed" selling. I personally have left my last gun powder for what could be construed as a final swoosh (fwiw, I voted a possible final retest of the 200 week MA currently sitting at approx. 4.56 area in the poll) to complete the last shoulder albeit a tad shorter than the first one. The shorts are/were hopeful it would be an even dip and thus the constant suggestions of $2.50-$3.00 and in an ideal world for them that would occur...but that is wishful thinking IMO on their part. That is where TA can pull the rug out from under a thesis as it is not an exact method of predicting but some get caught in the hopes it is. When this leg down completes and I am still in the camp of within a relatively (relative meaning weeks rather than months) short time frame, we should be set up for the nice uptrend most longs have been waiting for IMO fwiw. To view the chart for those that have access to the 10yr. chart (TD is where I pulled mine) select OBV for lower indicator. For those following: I have my final limit buy order in on MNKD  Filled!!....call me crazy or call me Warren (ya know greedy when others are fearful) but I do feel like a pig in poop...it's the other pigs (shorts) that are hopefully in the slaughterhouse |
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Post by savzak on Apr 27, 2015 15:39:03 GMT -5
For those following: I have my final limit buy order in on MNKD Filled!!....call me crazy or call me Warren (ya know greedy when others are fearful) but I do feel like a pig in poop...it's the other pigs (shorts) that are hopefully in the slaughterhouse Funny, I feel like a pig in poop too. But damned if I'm happy about it. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Apr 27, 2015 16:38:35 GMT -5
For those following: I have my final limit buy order in on MNKD Filled!!....call me crazy or call me Warren (ya know greedy when others are fearful) but I do feel like a pig in poop...it's the other pigs (shorts) that are hopefully in the slaughterhouse I missed it...what was filled? Shares or Options? I will still be buying the Jan '17 $3 calls until the stock takes off (fingers crossed!). |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Apr 27, 2015 17:23:39 GMT -5
Filled!!....call me crazy or call me Warren (ya know greedy when others are fearful) but I do feel like a pig in poop...it's the other pigs (shorts) that are hopefully in the slaughterhouse I missed it...what was filled? Shares or Options? I will still be buying the Jan '17 $3 calls until the stock takes off (fingers crossed!). Shares, this was the remaining amount of proceeds from the investment property I liquidated, broke it into the leaps that you are referring to and shares, with a sprinkling of INO as well....so now I go back into Rip Van Winkle mode, wake me up or should I say give me the first nudge when we're passing by 8 or so on the way up again Zzzz Zzzz |
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Post by Chris-C on Apr 27, 2015 20:04:05 GMT -5
Call me crazy too but I've also had some orders filled in the past 2-3 days- now looking for more dry powder!! Thanks SEC for being the cop that misses the heists going on daily in front of your 80 year old weaponry...outdated securities laws.
I am amused by the illusion created by WS of a fair market...let's not fool ourselves-the street is run by and for the large players...but nevertheless, I would just LOVE to see a short squeeze surprise about now...
GLTAL
Chris C
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Apr 30, 2015 13:53:56 GMT -5
Keeping things in the right perspective: The biotech indices and ETF's are in deep correction mode, the XBI which hit an all time high of 244.98 on 3/20 is now down and heading toward a 20% correction. Keeping things in the right perspective, MNKD hit a high of 5.44 on 3/20 and guess what...its moved directly in proportion to the overall biotech sector give or take 1-2%. Many have wondered how some of the names with drugs not even on the market yet, etc. were trading at prices that made no sense, while we know what we have with a situation that is potentially quite the opposite. So take away all "the noise" ie., moronic tweets from another bug that should have hit a windshield a long time ago...how timely they are as they crawl out from under the bed sheets. They (the shorts) have paid dearly for a long time waiting for this correction, if they truly are the "smart money" they would shift the profits from the companies that were way overvalued with no product or in phase II's with less than 20 enrolled patients etc., to one that has a proven product that will be a household name IMO worldwide within a couple of years. Chew on that one for a little while |
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Post by cybergym66 on Apr 30, 2015 15:42:52 GMT -5
Keeping things in the right perspective: The biotech indices and ETF's are in deep correction mode, the XBI which hit an all time high of 244.98 on 3/20 is now down and heading toward a 20% correction. Keeping things in the right perspective, MNKD hit a high of 5.44 on 3/20 and guess what...its moved directly in proportion to the overall biotech sector give or take 1-2%. Many have wondered how some of the names with drugs not even on the market yet, etc. were trading at prices that made no sense, while we know what we have with a situation that is potentially quite the opposite. So take away all "the noise" ie., moronic tweets from another bug that should have hit a windshield a long time ago...how timely they are as they crawl out from under the bed sheets. They (the shorts) have paid dearly for a long time waiting for this correction, if they truly are the "smart money" they would shift the profits from the companies that were way overvalued with no product or in phase II's with less than 20 enrolled patients etc., to one that has a proven product that will be a household name IMO worldwide within a couple of years. Chew on that one for a little while Cover your eyes and hit the BUY button!!! I just keep lowering my cost basis...not sure if we've hit the inflection point but I think it happens sooner than later...we're running out of SP! I still think the GS call of $3 is too low but who here would have guessed we'd be here?! |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 2, 2015 18:01:05 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... you mentioned an inverse head and shoulders recently, but looking over last 3 years, isn't that a pretty ominous looking non-inverse head and shoulders? I'm freeing up some money from a real estate investment and thinking of putting a meaningful chunk into MNKD. Interested in perspective on how low we can go. I had become convinced we had a floor at $5... now I wonder what sort of support we have anywhere.
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Post by cybergym66 on May 2, 2015 19:13:51 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... you mentioned an inverse head and shoulders recently, but looking over last 3 years, isn't that a pretty ominous looking non-inverse head and shoulders? I'm freeing up some money from a real estate investment and thinking of putting a meaningful chunk into MNKD. Interested in perspective on how low we can go. I had become convinced we had a floor at $5... now I wonder what sort of support we have anywhere. The Bio stocks had a down week and it seemed that MNKD turned down even harder once the SNY CC didn't provide the needed support for Afrezza/MNKD. The same could happen again after the MNKD CC. We all hope for some really good news, since we've seen the price drop on OK/good news. If the info from the CC is not great, then I think the shorts push the stock down even more. Sub $4 becomes a real possibility. I've been buying some each week since I don't know where the bottom is but might skip this week since I feel MNKD will not deliver the needed "shock and awe" to stop the SI from going up. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 3, 2015 11:24:09 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... you mentioned an inverse head and shoulders recently, but looking over last 3 years, isn't that a pretty ominous looking non-inverse head and shoulders? I'm freeing up some money from a real estate investment and thinking of putting a meaningful chunk into MNKD. Interested in perspective on how low we can go. I had become convinced we had a floor at $5... now I wonder what sort of support we have anywhere. DBC, I never said 3 yrs., I said going back on a 10 yr. chart you could see it, it actually starts back in '07 when support broke in the middle of Oct. '07, that "inverse shoulder" took two yrs. to complete until Oct. '09. The "inverse head" took 5 yrs. to complete until end of Jun '14 at which point the current "inverse shoulder" has been putting in it's "inverse peak" which leads to your question of how "inversely high" or current low for that matter will go. That goes back to my post that although the shorts are peppering the "1-2" shouts here and there, unless something catastrophic took place I don't believe this shoulder will "inversely apex" in the same area as the first one...but it could continue to dip and now the test area IMO becomes that 3.80 watermark (previous low that was touched pre-adcom). One may ask, if you think that then why not sell and buy back there...simple answer, as others have stated that could be the most fleeting of moments and to time it you may miss a violent turn and end up missing and paying/chasing higher in the end. We are currently 1 yr. into the opposite shoulder so keep in mind there are "legs" that make up a shoulder (I'll use a little aviation term to visualize...downwind, crosswind, then final leg) and if the time frame for the completion of this shoulder is roughly the same as the first we are getting close to the final slope which in this case would be that final turn for the "ages" that all long time longs have exhaustively and patiently been waiting for |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 3, 2015 12:32:32 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans, Yes, I know you were referring to 10 years for the inverse pattern, but I was simply pointing out that looking over a different period you come up with something that would seem to be exactly the opposite. Amazing that we find ourselves talking about possibility of revisiting the three dollar and change range.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 3, 2015 13:17:19 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans, Yes, I know you were referring to 10 years for the inverse pattern, but I was simply pointing out that looking over a different period you come up with something that would seem to be exactly the opposite. Amazing that we find ourselves talking about possibility of revisiting the three dollar and change range. Yes, amazingly opportunistic depending on how you look at it. It is amazingly opportunistic for the shorts who got "caught" with the gap up from close on 3/31/14 to the open on 4/2/14...thus why IMO your 3 yr. H&S will not break the original low start of the "neckline" @ 3.80 making it a potential failed H&S which in turn would cause the huge reversal I'm (and I'm confident quite a few others) are expecting...the low on 10/13/14 (4.45) was the other end of the neckline and I'm sure a lot of shorts were counting at that time to get lower and revisit the 3.80. Keep in mind for them to have gotten this back to this point, the cost it has taken in both borrowed shares and interest carry. The volume at that price point when/if it comes will be important and would most likely coincide with what Nate and other's have termed the capitulation phase...putting the final nail in the shorts coffin as they exit and turn to mutual longs, again IMO...it's anybody's guess what the fundamental catalyst will be that accompanies that pivotal moment but there are sure a lot of possibilities coming up in the next month, taking it from now through the ADA  |
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Post by kc on May 3, 2015 14:15:25 GMT -5
Buy options or shares. I want to DCA down. I want to do it this next. Week either before or after Earnings call. Perhaps I need to wait until I'm in the Goldman buy range? Not sure we will ever get that low but would like to lower my current cost basis down.
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