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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 21, 2018 7:51:33 GMT -5
I can accept that he's talking about net, but from my perspective stating "revenue" without qualification implies gross, not net. There's enough misinformation offered on-line that I'm probably over sensitive. Of course it is net revenue. You make a bold statement that the company is near cash flow break even, so i say the company is only receiving 5 Million per quarter in revenue. Talk apples to apples. Trader, I did not say the company was near cash flow break even. And, you might recall that I asked your opinion on this point, although it was quite some time ago, maybe a year. I hope that you are overly pessimistic in some of what you post, but you've normally been informative and you often state your reasons for your comments in ways that can be verified. If you're a wolf in sheep's clothing, you're the best at it. I prefer to believe that you are a sincere realist and not willing to let much emotion into your investment thinking (which is an excellent idea). But you have to know I'm wary after all the torrents of crap from on-line posters. Hopefully I'm not included in that group spewing garbage but I can't say every blog comment of mine is a gem. I think it was liane or sportsrancho that recently posted that proboard bloggers have been "bickering" of late. I think it's unfortunately true. This is the time of year when I think many of us want to turn our thoughts to family and better spirituality, so in that spirit, I will tell you thank you for your posts. Whether I agree or not, I often find them helpful as input to keeping my frame of reference fresh. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours.
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Post by liane on Dec 21, 2018 8:11:21 GMT -5
prcgorman2 - In that vein - we get a lot of complaints as to why we let "known shorts" continue to post here. The fact is that all viewpoints are welcome as long as they are well thought out and not being posted over and over and over (spam). People may not agree with the various viewpoints (I won't call out any names), but I for one, learn a lot from how a trader thinks or the inner workings of the pharma industry. My position is that Afrezza is the best thing since sliced bread and that Technosphere is the wave of the future. I have my position, and am willing to sit on it for a while, not fretting about day-day variations or temper tantrums of WS.
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Post by markado on Dec 21, 2018 9:49:35 GMT -5
I was as stunned as all longs re: the timing, degree, and impact of the recent offering. Shocked into silence, one might say - at least for a day. Then I thought of 3 things:
1) This event reminds me of Allan Mullaly's financial savvy at Ford, well ahead of the auto crisis. It's what differentiated Ford, and allowed me to triple my investment in that stock, as it came back to value much quicker than the other US automakers' for, then, all the "right" reasons.
2) This company, with all it has and has to offer with nearly $200M at its disposal throughout 2019...
And,3) the fortune I had to digest this news and event, while having a day off and the time and opportunity to buy 5k more shares at measurable discount, even to the calculated (yet still wildly undervalued) diluted (or is it deluded?) resulting stock price.
So, while explanations are needed and deserved, so that investors and the market can understand what is to be done with this capital, I'm choosing to take solace in the fact that capital should not prove to be an issue in 2019, and with that off the table, management can focus on getting even more done and achieved than they did in 2018. And, that I can't wait to see!
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Post by tomtabb on Dec 21, 2018 10:24:38 GMT -5
How did you come up with the 200 million figure?
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Post by markado on Dec 21, 2018 10:36:50 GMT -5
I am assuming the current offering provides $80M, with warrants exercised, plus, year end capital, plus, estimated $35m in net revenue from sales of Affrezza throughout 2019 - though I certainly hope for more, plus a milestone payment or two. $200M is not intended to be an exact figure, but I believe it is realistic, and, it won't take much, if any rounding to get there by EO 2019.
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2018 10:56:21 GMT -5
More like $125m with what we know is certain.
1. Eoy cash = $28m 2. Uthr milestones = $25m 3. Current offering = $38m 4. A net $ (based on doubling current net rev$ pacing = $34m Total = $125m
Could possibly add:
1. New molecule from uthr = $30m (do not know payment dates) 2. Warrants for another $38m 3. Brazil= $2m (pure guess) This gets close to your $200m but this is mnkd so never count on that which is not already a done deal.
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Post by markado on Dec 21, 2018 11:15:00 GMT -5
Mannmade, we're on the same page. There's also RLS (though that's an unknown, as well), plus the elusive global partner(s) that we're looking for to focus on Afrezza in multiple markets outside of the US. China, India, Europe, Canada. Too much more to bother to name, but the point is "potential" potentially becomes kinetic when fueled by capital.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 21, 2018 11:43:21 GMT -5
The potenial is worth mentioning.
We should not expect all possible good things to come to fruition.
Conversely, we should feel we're reasonable to expect some good things to materialize.
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