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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2019 2:57:08 GMT -5
So, I see all the excuses and explanations, but I don't see wins. "Mike's gonna make it happen..., Their working hard..., There's more to come...," Look people, its all about wins. When you tell the world you'll do $25-30 million in revenue, revise it downward to $22-25 and then miss that by a mile, YOU'VE FAILED. YA LOST BIG TIME. How can you guys defend that?! After listening to the conference call, I agree Mike's a good talker. He'd have to be to get where he is, but he's failed badly in 2018. Can anyone on this board refute that? Also, think about this: 2018 wasn't Mike's first swing at the plate (yes, a different sports analogy). He was brought in following Sanofi's exit. He convinces everyone a contract sales force is all we need. Oops. Strike one. No, we need dedicated MNKD reps. Oops. Strike two. No we need a dedicated force with DTC advertising. Oops. Strike three. So, now, of course all we need is 2019 is a dedicated sales force concentrated in certain productive markets with MORE DTC. We'll be saying Oops, Strike four in a few months. The game only allows for 3 strikes people. Galileo. Equally as frustrated. Yet. Highly optimistic. The one thing that we must nit forget, absolutely not forget is that Afrezza is a pardigm shifting drug. One were the dosing is different compared to traditional insulin. I am no doctor, yet having been invested in MNKD for 6 going 7 years, using it has differeny effects on diabetics. Furthermore, having said this a 1000 times before, but regardless its important. The major BPs that control the insulin market are not going to go down without a huge fight. So to say that Mike has already struck, I ask you this, who is his replacement? Matt or Hakan. Or was it Desoto? Cant remember. But, if Mike had not taken the reins where would we be, certainly looking over the cliff or possibly already in the abyss. He has taken us further and allowed me to dream about possibilities. That is why Mike is my CEO for this company. And least you forget. He has hit some homeruns and extra base hits. UTHR deal, extinguishing massive DF debt, Dr. K. Give credit where its due. And if we do become break even with sales, a lot of your hate and angry will wash away as share prices, correct. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 5, 2019 9:13:39 GMT -5
I agree with both of you.
But what I am glad about is that Mike keeps trying whether he hits a brick wall or not. And he has a vision. I don’t necessarily like it but some of the most successful people I know barely turn around and look back at their mistakes, they just stepped right over them and kept on going:-) I think he’s just focusing his energy on moving forward.
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 5, 2019 9:39:21 GMT -5
So, I see all the excuses and explanations, but I don't see wins. "Mike's gonna make it happen..., Their working hard..., There's more to come...," Look people, its all about wins. When you tell the world you'll do $25-30 million in revenue, revise it downward to $22-25 and then miss that by a mile, YOU'VE FAILED. YA LOST BIG TIME. How can you guys defend that?! After listening to the conference call, I agree Mike's a good talker. He'd have to be to get where he is, but he's failed badly in 2018. Can anyone on this board refute that? Also, think about this: 2018 wasn't Mike's first swing at the plate (yes, a different sports analogy). He was brought in following Sanofi's exit. He convinces everyone a contract sales force is all we need. Oops. Strike one. No, we need dedicated MNKD reps. Oops. Strike two. No we need a dedicated force with DTC advertising. Oops. Strike three. So, now, of course all we need is 2019 is a dedicated sales force concentrated in certain productive markets with MORE DTC. We'll be saying Oops, Strike four in a few months. The game only allows for 3 strikes people. Great news!!! After three strikes, you get up again in the same game...and the next game and get hundreds of ABs in the season. So, base bits win more ball games..not walk off home runs! So, what are the base hits that Mike has, you ask, since you already have him out on three strikes in his first AB? By the way, let's not forget about some BB's or IBB's that don't count against the BA but nonetheless can still score runs. That first K was recorded as swinging and not a backwards K, in the books since you are keeping track. Inking deals that have future implications - Brazil and India Publishing the STAT results Improving the SAB Hiring David Kendall Airing TV ads Showing growth in scripts and revenue Avoiding delisting from NASDAQ Shareholder Authorization of more shares Deal with United (off the wall for a double) These are not swings and misses. These are singles and the future score will reflect the value of what 'just make contact with the ball' has towards contributing to the game. By the way...a few of the items on that last weren't the easy fastballs down the cock that are easy to hit! There were also a few curveballs that he was able to go oppo and still make contact to get on base. This game ain't anywhere near over pal. Have a seat and shove a hotdog in your mouth and watch. |
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Post by uvula on Jan 5, 2019 10:14:04 GMT -5
Since this thread is titled "thinking differently"....
What if MNKD downsizes to conserve cash, continues working on the other molecules, and continues selling Afrezza to anyone who wants it, but gets rid of the sales force and sales senior management. Kendal keeps working to get Afrezza listed in the SOC for T1D and T2D and also keeps publishing the "gold mine" of data. Mike keeps talking to insurance companies to get Afrezza on the lists. CGM use will continue to increase as time goes on.
After the SOC situation improves, after CGM use is more widespread, and after more insurance companies cover Afrezza, then MNKD can partner with someone who has a salesforce and aggressively pushes Afrezza.
Probably the only way that MNKD can do this is if it goes private.
I would not be happy if MNKD actually did this but I am not happy now anyway.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 5, 2019 10:18:31 GMT -5
Since this thread is titled "thinking differently".... What if MNKD downsizes to conserve cash, continues working on the other molecules, and continues selling Afrezza to anyone who wants it, but gets rid of the sales force and sales senior management. Kendal keeps working to get Afrezza listed in the SOC for T1D and T2D and also keeps publishing the "gold mine" of data. Mike keeps talking to insurance companies to get Afrezza on the lists. CGM use will continue to increase as time goes on. After the SOC situation improves, after CGM use is more widespread, and after more insurance companies cover Afrezza, then MNKD can partner with someone who has a salesforce and aggressively pushes Afrezza. Probably the only way that MNKD can do this is if it goes private. I would not be happy if MNKD actually did this but I am not happy now anyway. Or they could cut costs and do all that by leasing Afrezza out. And getting a royalty. |
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Post by galileo on Jan 5, 2019 13:32:48 GMT -5
Hellodolly, nice work in taking the baseball analogy to greater heights. You're knowledge of the game is superior. However, I have to disagree with you about what you characterize as singles. I notice in the list you made, only increasing Afrezza scripts is what matters. I get your point that the other things like hiring Kendall are preliminary to getting more scripts.But, the point I made that none of the Mike defenders responded to, was judging his performance against the metrics he set for himself and the company: guidance. Nobody made Mike put out guidance. He did that himself. Don't you think when he mentioned at the beginning of 2018, the $25-30 million range for Afrezza revenue for the year that he picked a number he thought he'd exceed? Think about what you'd do in the same situation. You'd say $25-30 thinking you'll exceed $30 and look like a hero. Maybe get the cash-machine BOD to give a special bonus. Mike's not dumb. That's what he was thinking. It's ego and it's inherent in CEOs. So, he was thinking $30+ and got $16+. My math's not great but that's a little better than 50%. That SUCKS! Come on now.
Mike's done some good things, but my focus is the future not the past. What have you done lately is good, but what will you do upcoming is better. I listened to the call. I didn't hear great insight. I didn't hear much of a plan. Mostly more of the same. This is why I say Think Differently. He's not. It's straight forward stuff that he's planning and we already have seen how that worked out: not very well. Last point on thinking differently: change comes as a result of dissatisfaction. If 2018 isn't dissatisfaction, please tell me what is? But, I've never heard Mike acknowledge mistakes, screw-ups or anything like it. He always sounds so in control. Reminds me of what the captain of the Titanic is reported to have said: we're fine, we just bumped an iceberg.
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 5, 2019 15:02:59 GMT -5
Hellodolly, nice work in taking the baseball analogy to greater heights. You're knowledge of the game is superior. However, I have to disagree with you about what you characterize as singles. I notice in the list you made, only increasing Afrezza scripts is what matters. I get your point that the other things like hiring Kendall are preliminary to getting more scripts.But, the point I made that none of the Mike defenders responded to, was judging his performance against the metrics he set for himself and the company: guidance. Nobody made Mike put out guidance. He did that himself. Don't you think when he mentioned at the beginning of 2018, the $25-30 million range for Afrezza revenue for the year that he picked a number he thought he'd exceed? Think about what you'd do in the same situation. You'd say $25-30 thinking you'll exceed $30 and look like a hero. Maybe get the cash-machine BOD to give a special bonus. Mike's not dumb. That's what he was thinking. It's ego and it's inherent in CEOs. So, he was thinking $30+ and got $16+. My math's not great but that's a little better than 50%. That SUCKS! Come on now. Mike's done some good things, but my focus is the future not the past. What have you done lately is good, but what will you do upcoming is better. I listened to the call. I didn't hear great insight. I didn't hear much of a plan. Mostly more of the same. This is why I say Think Differently. He's not. It's straight forward stuff that he's planning and we already have seen how that worked out: not very well. Last point on thinking differently: change comes as a result of dissatisfaction. If 2018 isn't dissatisfaction, please tell me what is? But, I've never heard Mike acknowledge mistakes, screw-ups or anything like it. He always sounds so in control. Reminds me of what the captain of the Titanic is reported to have said: we're fine, we just bumped an iceberg. You did that job all by yourself and punched him out. I was bringing some optics on the rest of the ballgame, not just one AB. As far as looking forwards or backwards and the call, I got the impression that we are staying the course and not changing our lineup. It may be that's it's still too early in the season to make changes to the starting lineup. Managers usually have a good feel for when they need to make a change and since I've never been a CEO, but have been a manager of baseball clubs, I trust Mike knows exactly what he's doing. It's not like he's my opponent and I have to make a move, far from it. I'm on the same team. It's always the opponents trying to guess what the other guys is going to do on the next pitch, at bat, inning, game or season (in that order) that make the move first in reaction. Yes, he set the metrics for himself. He should. He's the CEO. He also deserves more than one season at the helm to improve the teams record. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 5, 2019 15:04:00 GMT -5
I'm a turn around specialist who went into a business that had continuous losses for years. I started in the second half of March ... and in two weeks I turned that company around to where we made 15 cents for the month. So, I'm open to working again for two weeks ... just give me $1M for my two week salary ... and I GUARANTEE a 15 cent profitability.  Did I also mention that I also wanted to be a chef? So yes, I do know how to cook the books. |
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Post by ryster505 on Jan 5, 2019 15:51:37 GMT -5
I'm playing poker. The cards I am holding in my hand are terrible. If I give my cards to someone else, they will still be terrible. Most successful poker players I know don't play the cards, they play the other players  Brilliant. |
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Post by travis1953 on Jan 5, 2019 16:30:46 GMT -5
Galileo - "This really isn't that difficult to figure out. We need a new Board" and "Sanofi tried and failed" IMO points to your misunderstanding of the situation. Sanofi under Brandicourt never tried but rather undermined afrezza. Knowing that most Lantus sales come from T2s and treating T2s early with afrezza they will not progress to needing a basal, Sanofi had a decision to make. Steve Schwartz got $250M and went of to start Onduo and Brandicourt took the safe road and protected the Lantus franchise. To sell into the diabetes market the drug needs to be part of the standards of care. You can have all the sales guys you want and all the TV commercials burning cash but until its front and center in the SOC you are only going to have a niche drug. If Sanofi tried, they would have done the studies to support SOC changes and then pressured the community. Mike is on the right track with Dr. Kendall. While not yet earth shattering he has been able to get some SOC changes for this year. I am not sure anyone could do a better job than Dr. Kendall in getting SOC changes made. Mike gets all the credit for getting Dr. Kendall to MNKD. Maybe it took him a year or so to figure things out but given the hand he was dealt he has been an A performer as the lights are still on and MNKD's prospects of making it are increasing every day. What were the SOC changes Dr. Kendall achieved? Thanks. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 5, 2019 16:59:35 GMT -5
Those who have followed this company the past decade know that both the company and Afrezza are in better shape today that at any time in the past. This doesn't mean all challenges are gone or that the pps reflects the recent success, at least not yet. The company is specifically in better shape since the board elevated Mike to CEO a little over a year and a half ago. IMO, creating a conversation that discusses the possibility of Mike being replaced is likely a plant and a move that Novo, Sanofi and a few others would probably love to see.
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Post by sweedee79 on Jan 5, 2019 19:24:19 GMT -5
I like Mike and what he has done.. it's been remarkable.. I haven't changed how I feel about him .. and yet this last round of dilution after he said no dilution.. and right before Christmas,along with deleting comments on Twitter shook my trust and understandably so..
I have no idea what it's like to be CEO of a publicly traded company and be so accessible at the same time.. but I do know you can't be reckless.. If the market overreacted to this offering it's probably for good reason. Never know what might happen next. Uncertainty is a killer.
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Post by falconquest on Jan 5, 2019 19:55:32 GMT -5
For all the years we've been participating in, following, investing in the fortunes of MNKD, we're at our lowest point right now(at least with regard to Afrezza). On this board there's the full range of opinions from the ever-optimists to the permanent-bears. Tons of speculation about all aspects of the company. Lets start with what we know: 1. Afrezza seems like a valuable product. 2. Neither MNKD management, nor any other entity has proven itself capable of selling Afrezza at a commercially viable level. 3. At the current trajectory of sales there is little prospect of profitability in 2019. 4. There is a finite amount of cash and at some point, without more success from Afrezza sales, the company may find it impossible to raise capital. 5. The MNKD management team has a poor record: of communication and of achievement. 6. The first responsibility of a Board of Directors is to protect the interests of shareholders. To introduce a sports analogy, if such were the situation with a football team, the coaching staff would be replaced and likely some in the front office as well. I think that's where we should start. The MNKD Board has been an utter failure any way you look at it. I don't care what companies they were associated with in their careers. I don't care if they love America or kick their dogs. In this situation we employ them to look out for us and they've failed. So, fire 'em. Simple. Let's be honest, we could replace the board with mannequins and do as well as we have. Now as to management, I have nothing better to say. I start from the position of being neither fan nor hater of Mike C. How has he done? I think if one were handing out letter grades, he'd get at best a C and probably a C-. Surely, the Board's grading can't be that much different. Yet the Board pays Mike and the team like they're B+/A performers. The Board has failed here. Afrezza may be the greatest thing to hit diabetes, but that doesn't matter if you can't sell it. Sanofi tried and failed. The contract sales force tried and failed. Now the dedicated sales force has tried and failed. Maybe it can't be sold. Maybe it won't work. I don't know the answer to selling Afrezza, but neither does anyone associated with MNKD. So, jettison the product to someone else. Presumably, there's still some value there. Management has fallen in love with product (as have many of us), but maybe that love with never be returned. The Board should force a sale. To permit MNKD management to pursue some new sales strategy in 2019 is foolish. Of course, management doesn't want to give up and have that on their resume, but this is why there's a Board. Another failure of the Board. This really isn't that difficult to figure out. We need a new Board. Now. They've had several seasons to win games. They've been associated with winning teams in their past. But, they've repeatedly failed our team. We should remove them this May. I disagree with this statement. The lowest point (others feel free to weigh in) was the second CRL. Mannkind is in a much better position now than at that time. Mike lost the trust of many; many who also worked hard to make him Pharma CEO of the year. Apparently he did what he felt he had to do. I think he got bad advice but that's water over the dam now. I don't like the warrant situation. Good luck to those who are invested. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 5, 2019 20:10:05 GMT -5
Hellodolly, nice work in taking the baseball analogy to greater heights. You're knowledge of the game is superior. However, I have to disagree with you about what you characterize as singles. I notice in the list you made, only increasing Afrezza scripts is what matters. I get your point that the other things like hiring Kendall are preliminary to getting more scripts.But, the point I made that none of the Mike defenders responded to, was judging his performance against the metrics he set for himself and the company: guidance. Nobody made Mike put out guidance. He did that himself. Don't you think when he mentioned at the beginning of 2018, the $25-30 million range for Afrezza revenue for the year that he picked a number he thought he'd exceed? Think about what you'd do in the same situation. You'd say $25-30 thinking you'll exceed $30 and look like a hero. Maybe get the cash-machine BOD to give a special bonus. Mike's not dumb. That's what he was thinking. It's ego and it's inherent in CEOs. So, he was thinking $30+ and got $16+. My math's not great but that's a little better than 50%. That SUCKS! Come on now. Mike's done some good things, but my focus is the future not the past. What have you done lately is good, but what will you do upcoming is better. I listened to the call. I didn't hear great insight. I didn't hear much of a plan. Mostly more of the same. This is why I say Think Differently. He's not. It's straight forward stuff that he's planning and we already have seen how that worked out: not very well. Last point on thinking differently: change comes as a result of dissatisfaction. If 2018 isn't dissatisfaction, please tell me what is? But, I've never heard Mike acknowledge mistakes, screw-ups or anything like it. He always sounds so in control. Reminds me of what the captain of the Titanic is reported to have said: we're fine, we just bumped an iceberg. The issue with Mike's metrics is he is still struggling to understand how to sell into the diabetes market or so it appears to me from yesterday's call. More focused sale guys knocking on doors is not going to do it. Neither are TV commercials. Past experience says spend a lot of money on TV and you will get 10, 20, 50, maybe 100 additional scripts over 2 months. We want 1000, 2000, 10,000 not 100.
Going his current path he will continue to see slow but steady growth. With the T1 SOC updates we should see a small bump in weekly scripts. It will not be until significant changes happen we will see the 1000+ new scripts per week.
His current approach may work in other markets. More sales calls should equal more sales. In this space more calls gets you little.
What Mike needs to remember is what I told him when I first met him. Endo's are not your friend. If afrezza catches on many PWD's will not need an Endo as much, if at all. Most T2's if treated with the AFAL protocal will never see an Endo. What Endo wants 1/10th the client base?
While Dr. Kendall is plodding with SOC changes what options does Mike have? He is trying with more focused sales and TV commercials. This will not significantly increase sales. The one which can really sell afrezza in the near term is the VDex approach with well funded clinics. Mike said he is going to sell direct. Good, these clinics can then buy direct from MNKD which will add more to the bottom line.
If done properly Mike has the potential of totally changing diabetic care. I am just not sure he understands this. Look, when I was talking CGMs and their importance to afrezza almost 3 years ago he had no idea what I was talking about. He listened but I got the look like this guy is a nut. Then I told him Endos are not his friends and I really got the look.
Does anyone think Endos want afrezza front and center in the SOCs,? Ha! And Dr. Kendall said its the easiest job he has ever had. I say he will get there but he will be bloodied on the way.
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Post by ltta on Jan 5, 2019 20:39:23 GMT -5
sayhey, I highly regard your input…. What do you think about HMOs and Afrezza? Less Endos, less cost - less hypos, less cost - less diabetic complications, less cost - etc. If Afrezza can save them money, will they ever see the light? and how?
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Did I also mention that I also wanted to be a chef? So yes, I do know how to cook the books.
