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Post by mannmade on Jan 22, 2019 13:58:04 GMT -5
More likely as stated previously in my original reply $2m per month.
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Post by peppy on Jan 22, 2019 14:05:21 GMT -5
How much cash do we estimate they currently have? When do we expect UTHR milestones to come in? I believe we started the year with $70M, I estimate we've currently spent $8-10M on ads and $10M on the monthly burn. Probably brought in a net of, maybe $1M in Afrezza revenue. I'm guessing we have somewhere around $50M, does anyone disagree? They have debt covenants at what dollar amount $10M? So, I estimate we have around $40M of usable cash, which gives us 4 months (without additional advertising blitz) before we need to see a milestone of some other source of cash. Thoughts? Mannmade said, Think you are way over on costs. More likely $2m per month on ads plus $8 to $9m in expenses. Can pay off DF $11.5 in stock if makes sense at time and $12.5m in milestones likely payable in 1st Q. So by my estimate w $70 eoy now at $59m plus $1m in Afrezza net rev and $12.5 in milestones equals $72.5m which is seven months.
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 22, 2019 14:06:58 GMT -5
More likely as stated previously in my original reply $2m per month. You said $8M for the Q for the 2017 test campaign, which is $2.7M/month. You think the 2018 ad budget is lower?
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 22, 2019 14:07:56 GMT -5
More likely as stated previously in my original reply $2m per month. You said $8M for the Q for the 2017 test campaign, which is $2.7M/month. You think the 2018 ad budget is lower? siwwy wabbit 2019!
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Post by mannmade on Jan 22, 2019 14:09:33 GMT -5
Actually Compound said previous campaign was $8m for quarter. That was not me. My understanding is that it was actually $5 for quarter.
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Post by bigchungus91354 on Jan 22, 2019 14:13:32 GMT -5
Actually Compound said previous campaign was $8m for quarter. That was not me. My understanding is that it was actually $5 for quarter. But you think that we are spending less or equal per quarter now to what we were spending then?
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Post by travis1953 on Jan 22, 2019 14:52:31 GMT -5
Correct that is my understanding. Plus another $12.5 in the second half. What has to be achieved to get the 12.5 million payments?
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Post by mannmade on Jan 22, 2019 15:10:09 GMT -5
Not specified but apparently clearly achievable by mnkd.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 22, 2019 15:46:58 GMT -5
bigchungus91354 what is the assumption of your numbers? I recall reading somewhere that, in 2017, when Mannkind did the test run of the ads in 12 markets, the ad campaign for the whole fourth quarter costed them about $ 8M. Now for this ad campaign, which just started on Jan. 14 and we are on Jan. 22. Basically just one week of ad campaign. I have no idea how much they have spent already on ad campaign. But if, as you have estimated, they are spending $8-10M in about a week, that will be translated into $24-30M in ad money per month and $72-90M in ad money per quarter. However, note that Mike stated something like that they now have the resource to engage in sustained consumer promotion. And additionally, Mike stated that Mannkind have sufficient funds to get to mid 2020 (assuming the $1.6 warrants get exercised). Based on these statements, it is unlikely that Mannkind is spending the amount of money on ad campaign as you have estimated. I don't think the ads will run $8-10M/week, I assume they bought volume, for a discount and have paid up front. My guess is probably closer to $10 per Q. Its been a substantial roll-out. I don't know what to expect going forward. Q2 could bring an even larger campaign. I'm just trying to assess when we need to see the milestones paid out to avoid returning to the well. (worst case assuming the 1.60 warrants don't execute by Q2) The ads are likely remnet TV ad time. Inventory will dry up around all of the holidays in the first half of the year. Companies like Vermont Teddy bear, 1-800 flowers sherries berries/pro flowers and others will bid up around the holidays. eg Valentine Day, Mothers Day, Easter and Fathers day. It will be more of an ebb and flow in the inventory of ads purchased. I use to analyse purchases of this type of remnent ad space, I would think MNKD is spending around $1M per week tops. MNKD is probably set up net 30 for payments to their Ad purchasing agency.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 22, 2019 16:02:40 GMT -5
Correct that is my understanding. Plus another $12.5 in the second half. What has to be achieved to get the 12.5 million payments? Most likely pre-clinical work to formulate the best aerodynamic properties of the molecule-carrier particle. Any API-TS must be manufactured to quality standards before it can go to the clinical trials.
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Post by longliner on Jan 28, 2019 1:17:29 GMT -5
I have always thought JNJ would make an ideal partner for Mannkind.
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Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Jan 28, 2019 9:21:19 GMT -5
Are you saying that JNJ is going to partner with MannKind?
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Post by travis1953 on Jan 28, 2019 17:18:19 GMT -5
What has to be achieved to get the 12.5 million payments? Most likely pre-clinical work to formulate the best aerodynamic properties of the molecule-carrier particle. Any API-TS must be manufactured to quality standards before it can go to the clinical trials. As I understood a description of the process, FDKP just forms a box around the drug in an acid environment. Is there anyway to modify the box to enhance aerodynamic or other properties?
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Post by longliner on Jan 28, 2019 18:03:59 GMT -5
Are you saying that JNJ is going to partner with MannKind? No, I have always thought that JNJ has a "soft" reputation (think baby products). Afrezza is the soft alternative to jabbing needles into your body. Beyond that I have no idea of what the future holds. Hopefully up, in both sales and share price.
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Post by liane on Jan 28, 2019 18:18:00 GMT -5
Don't know if this helps you travis - it's a link to an article on the Technosphere technology. I really had to dig hard to find it. So many of the old links in our Resources section have dead links now.
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