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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2014 17:03:53 GMT -5
What about the 10B in inventory? I believe they hinted during one of the CC of the possibility of not being able to use the inventory in storage. I think there is concern due to its age. Did anyone else hear this or am I hearing things? Is that the amount of revenue that was supposed to be covered by the stock on hand? The price they paid for the insulin is a fraction of that. I seem to remember it was only something like $1B or $2B in sales from what they had on hand... but then lizards aren't known for their memory.
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 5, 2014 17:07:29 GMT -5
This is crazy! Everytime positive news is released the price drops! Unbelievable.......
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Post by jake10977 on Aug 5, 2014 17:13:28 GMT -5
I would not consider this positive or negative
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Post by nialla44 on Aug 5, 2014 17:14:00 GMT -5
What about the 10B in inventory? I believe they hinted during one of the CC of the possibility of not being able to use the inventory in storage. I think there is concern due to its age. Did anyone else hear this or am I hearing things? Is that the amount of revenue that was supposed to be covered by the stock on hand? The price they paid for the insulin is a fraction of that. I seem to remember it was only something like $1B or $2B in sales from what they had on hand... but then lizards aren't known for their memory. The often quoted figure was the equivalent of 10B is sales. I think it was part of the Pfizer deal, and I believe they paid a very small amount for the inventory, something like 3m. It was a small amount that is not even carried on the Balance Sheet.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2014 17:19:06 GMT -5
This is crazy! Everytime positive news is released the price drops! Unbelievable....... There is a reason pre/post market trades are not in the charts, best be served not to pay too much attention to such IMO
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Post by liane on Aug 5, 2014 17:24:13 GMT -5
What about the 10B in inventory? I believe they hinted during one of the CC of the possibility of not being able to use the inventory in storage. I think there is concern due to its age. Did anyone else hear this or am I hearing things? I've posted this a couple times before: www.nibsc.org/documents/ifu/83-500.pdfThe lower 95% limit for the predicted loss of activity of the material stored at -20°C, based upon assays of thermally degraded samples, was less than 0.1% per year.
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Post by jake10977 on Aug 5, 2014 17:33:41 GMT -5
Since this Biotech stuff is all new to me this sounds plausible....at least i hope Off Ihub written by H2R One guess here: 1) This is a manufacturing agreement. Mannkind has been propping up its capacity in the United States. This would provide an insulin supplier in Europe 2) European standards and approvals may already be in place for the subsidiary in France, for Europe. In that case, Mannkind would benefit from a pre-approved manufacturing site in the heart of Europe 3) The commercial partner in Europe may have some previous ties to that entity This is *not* the commercial partnership we have been waiting for. However, it points to the fact that Mannkind feels rather strongly about expanding in Europe very soon and the partnership is all but signed. Just my opinion. Best regards
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 5, 2014 17:38:02 GMT -5
What about the 10B in inventory? I believe they hinted during one of the CC of the possibility of not being able to use the inventory in storage. I think there is concern due to its age. Did anyone else hear this or am I hearing things? I've posted this a couple times before: www.nibsc.org/documents/ifu/83-500.pdfThe lower 95% limit for the predicted loss of activity of the material stored at -20°C, based upon assays of thermally degraded samples, was less than 0.1% per year. While that might be true, the FDA still imposes expiration dates regardless if the product is still good. For example, human plasma that is frozen at the same temps (-20 FDA/ -30EMA) has a 10 year life span. I am not sure if the FDA has a similar time span on frozen insulin.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2014 17:53:40 GMT -5
Is that the amount of revenue that was supposed to be covered by the stock on hand? The price they paid for the insulin is a fraction of that. I seem to remember it was only something like $1B or $2B in sales from what they had on hand... but then lizards aren't known for their memory. The often quoted figure was the equivalent of 10B is sales. I think it was part of the Pfizer deal, and I believe they paid a very small amount for the inventory, something like 3m. It was a small amount that is not even carried on the Balance Sheet. Not too long ago MannMade stated that insulin on hand was worth $200-300M. So assuming his figure is correct and your figure of $10B is correct it would seem that this would take them to enough insulin to cover at least $15B in revenue over the 5 yr period. Unfortunately I don't really have time to delve into verifying these figures. I'm sure more than one someone is busy trying to figure out what the revenue implication is. As stated, this agreement allows for larger volume, and they may seek multiple sources... but figuring out what amount of revenue is covered by the secured insulin and what is on hand is still of interest.
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Post by daduke38 on Aug 5, 2014 18:31:19 GMT -5
That was brought up by I believe Matt. They weren't sure if the FDA would let them use any or all of it. I never heard a result from that concern. But we hadn't heard anything til today. I'm about 99% sure on this.
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Post by papihoyos on Aug 5, 2014 19:14:15 GMT -5
Am I reading it wrong but I read to mean 120M euro per year not over five years.
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Post by obamayoumama on Aug 5, 2014 19:28:13 GMT -5
Matt had said the 10 billion of AFREZZA was worth about several hundred million in raw insulin. That would mean their supply agreement is counting on Danbury pumping out about 4 billion of AFREZZA a year. I doubt that they would have made this commitment without a partner already finalized.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2014 20:18:42 GMT -5
Matt had said the 10 billion of AFREZZA was worth about several hundred million in raw insulin. That would mean their supply agreement is counting on Danbury pumping out about 4 billion of AFREZZA a year. I doubt that they would have made this commitment without a partner already finalized. That would seem reasonable, especially if they know for certain they can use the stockpile they already have. Assuming they could use the stockpile, it would seem foolish to finalize an agreement obligating them to buy more unless they have a partner nailed down. If the stockpile is still in question as to whether it will be allowed by FDA, then this move wouldn't mean as much... ITLHO (in the lizards humble opinion).
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2014 20:22:19 GMT -5
Am I reading it wrong but I read to mean 120M euro per year not over five years. If... if, the stock on hand is worth $300M and supports $10B in sales of Afrezza, then 120M euro per year would be an amazing statement of confidence about sales. But I think that was aggregate for the 5 years.
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Post by papihoyos on Aug 5, 2014 21:48:21 GMT -5
"MannKind has agreed to purchase annual minimum quantities of Insulin under the Supply Agreement of an aggregate of approximately €120.1 million in calendar years 2015 through 2019."
Could be read either way - per year or aggregate. If it were aggregate they should have said "through 2019 beginning in calendar year 2015"
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