|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Aug 7, 2014 13:09:47 GMT -5
You know the expectation thing is a killer to the spirit. Yet, Monday's inclusion of partnership announcement or lack of it; will determine the value of the stock in a significant way. Tomorrow is options friday.
I'd really like to hear from others their ideas on the topic of the "likelyhood" of a partnership announcement on or before Monday's close. I know it's speculation. I'm in my own mindset about this influenced by hope and so want to abandon my only internal view and hear from you.
Interesting to hear that the company that has produced testing insulin that is tested is the company we are now financially linked. I hope this isn't being thought of: enough for the market without an announcement of partnership. Trying to decide what stocks to sell for an unbelievable margin call due today and extended for me till tomorrow. Margin is a blessing and a curse.
thanks
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2014 13:35:07 GMT -5
You know the expectation thing is a killer to the spirit. Yet, Monday's inclusion of partnership announcement or lack of it; will determine the value of the stock in a significant way. Tomorrow is options friday. I'd really like to hear from others their ideas on the topic of the "likelyhood" of a partnership announcement on or before Monday's close. I know it's speculation. I'm in my own mindset about this influenced by hope and so want to abandon my only internal view and hear from you. Interesting to hear that the company that has produced testing insulin that is tested is the company we are now financially linked. I hope this isn't being thought of: enough for the market without an announcement of partnership. Trying to decide what stocks to sell for an unbelievable margin call due today and extended for me till tomorrow. Margin is a blessing and a curse. thanks Really sorry to see this TKGIA, unfortunately that is exactly what I've been referring to as far as when other posters ask what the overall market being down has to do with MNKD which is facing a binary event...the shorts are well aware of a downside market and what it does as far as situations like yours...they are ruthless as we know and will take advantage of anything that helps aid their financial cause...hard to say without knowing what you have at your disposal to meet the call, the overall market looks like it has a little bit more of downside here before finding some decent support for a bounce so the timing of tomorrow for the margin call sucks...best of luck to you, hope it works out with as minimal damage as possible...with regard to MNKD it feels like it has compressed down here at the current lows and is ripe for some good news to get it back on it's upward path...calls have been going out again for shares and according to IB today the available shares are as follows as I type this: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 80'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ Not good for those short IMO if we get the news we hope for, hang in there
|
|
|
Post by daduke38 on Aug 7, 2014 13:45:23 GMT -5
To answer simply, MNKD has to release Earnings, that is a given. They are not obligated to have a CC. Logic and any business sense on my part tells me why after virtually 7 weeks of stone cold silence would you have a CC without having something significant to say? Now having said that, I sure am hoping they have either a very good partner and agreement, or my preference, a buy out of "A". And good luck with the other stuff.
|
|
|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Aug 7, 2014 13:48:59 GMT -5
thanks for the feedback joey. I really don't want to get into numbers but at one time owed tda 2.8 mil in margin I'm thinking if I sell all of my other stock LVS / Sprint and 20% of my mannkind I will be out of margin debt entirely which, though, all my eggs will be in one basket; a down trend won't make me sell off at a lesser value if declines continue and there will be no time frame with MNKD cause my calls aren't expiring till mid jan 2015.
|
|
|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Aug 7, 2014 13:51:45 GMT -5
To answer simply, MNKD has to release Earnings, that is a given. They are not obligated to have a CC. Logic and any business sense on my part tells me why after virtually 7 weeks of stone cold silence would you have a CC without having something significant to say? Now having said that, I sure am hoping they have either a very good partner and agreement, or my preference, a buy out of "A". And good luck with the other stuff. "they don't have to have a CC" though that is a comforting thought; to play the devils advocate is if they don't have the CC; the market would react the same way as an announcement sprinkled with promise. ty
|
|
|
Post by mrhaigs on Aug 7, 2014 15:48:22 GMT -5
I disagree. If they didn't have a call, I would look at it as a good thing as it would signal to me that something is imminent. Them having the call sets up a major move Tuesday now. Were tanking another dollar or two if we get the same old response. On the other hand, we could have significant upside on a good partnership and potentially getting to market by end of year. I'm nervous about it as I think there is a lot of uncertainty now lingering around the company. I still believe we will be rewarded in the long run, however short term pain is something that is hard to deal with for a lot of investors, and plays into a short sellers pocket. Keep in mind a lot of shares short belong to Deerfield. The artificial inflation of the number based on that could be helpful to us. I don't believe we will get a massive short squeeze as there are still many many hurdles. A sale of the company would not really create a squeeze as there is a finite number which shares would settle at. My guess is as good as anyone's as to what actually happens though. We will see! My August calls are hopeful good things will be announced.
|
|
|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Aug 7, 2014 16:23:23 GMT -5
I appreciate your thought's mrhaigs. today I officially retired from margin debt which frees me to own the shares and calls I do without having to have the share perform for the lender. I am more flexible than the lender and can wait longer for satisfaction than the instant gratification TDA want's every 5 days. To random determined by global politics and BS FUD. I think if there were no CC then that would be the depth of the unknown. And you know how the "unknown" affects the market. For whatever reason MNKD Management Led by our Alfred is doing what they think is best for the company which I think will be good for me. The unknown is a killer due to the spin artists.
|
|
|
Post by seanismorris on Aug 7, 2014 16:44:24 GMT -5
Well...I think it's a good thing that you are out of Margin. That was one thing Cramer got right, it's just to risky (especially with global risk).
If we do hear we are going to have a CC (and not just the financial report), I will be using all the amo that I have left to buy MNKD shares (no margin).
In my mind there is only one reason to have the call and that's a major announcement.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 7, 2014 17:45:19 GMT -5
Well...I think it's a good thing that you are out of Margin. That was one thing Cramer got right, it's just to risky (especially with global risk). If we do hear we are going to have a CC (and not just the financial report), I will be using all the amo that I have left to buy MNKD shares (no margin). In my mind there is only one reason to have the call and that's a major announcement. They already did announce their conference call... Monday 5:00pm. A big announcement can't be the only reason because they have one each quarter big announce or not, just as most companies do.
|
|
|
Post by kc on Aug 7, 2014 17:53:49 GMT -5
Having a scheduled CC call at 5:00 is a smart move as it keeps everybody on pins and needles. If they have a different plan then they can release that at the time of the call. That is a very smart move.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 7, 2014 18:04:18 GMT -5
To me it seems that closing the insulin deal and stating that the specifics of the deal will be appended to the quarterly earnings report should be a clear indication that they plan on discussing marketing plans that would justify the amount of insulin they just committed to buy. I suppose it could be a statement that they didn't find a partner and plan to go it alone, but if others suggestions that this amount of insulin represents approximately $5B in sales, it seems like the story isn't going to be that they have decided to go it alone. Seems they can't not announce what the marketing is... partner or solo, with a story and projections that add up to $5B.
Anyone concur or disagree? Does anyone not agree with the approx $5B figure as what the newly contracted insulin supports?
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Aug 7, 2014 18:08:55 GMT -5
I don't know why, but I'm singing this song now. My big Greek nose is trying to tell me something. Or maybe I hit the ouzo too soon today. You decide.
"Monday, Monday"
Monday, Monday, so good to me; Monday morning, it was all I hoped it would be. Oh, Monday morning, Monday morning couldn't guarantee That Monday evening you would still be here with me. Monday, Monday, can't trust that day; Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way. Oh, Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be. Oh, Monday, Monday, how could you leave and not take me? Every other day, every other day Every other day of the week is fine, yeah. But when this Monday comes - but when this Monday comes You won't find me crying this time. On Monday evening Spiro will be dancing all around Monday morning, it was all I hoped it would be. But Monday morning, Monday morning couldn't guarantee That Monday evening you would still be here with me. Every other day, every other day Every other day of the week is fine, yeah. But whenever Monday comes - but whenever Monday comes You can't find me crying this time. Monday, Monday, can't trust that day; Monday, Monday, it just turns out that way. Oh, Monday, Monday, won't go away; Monday, Monday, it's here to stay. Oh Monday, Monday Oh Monday, Monday
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 7, 2014 18:38:53 GMT -5
I do like the fact you're singing, Spiro, it's part of MNKD fatigue syndrome for sure, and I'm certain it has therapeutic value! Did you get back into POET in time for today's run-up, that will not doubt turn into tomorrow's sorrow?! LOL!
I'll tell you what Monday will bring - more talk about ongoing negotiations, and some talk about what they plan to do with all that insulin they've committed to purchase; curious if the purchase is contingent on some sort of miracle, like Al Mann signing on the dotted line with a partner or two!
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 7, 2014 18:55:59 GMT -5
C'mon, guys, Lucy's holding the football, are we all going to take a big run at it and kick it as hard a possible?
Nothing definitive will be announced during the CC. Best that we can hope for is Spiro singing Monday Monday to open up the call. The stock is just not behaving at all like they've inked a deal or even reached an agreement in principle, and what are the chances that would happen between now and Monday at 5?
The stock will not drop a dollar or two on Tuesday if they don't say something to knock our socks off, it's just not anticipated and the stock hasn't done much at all in due to lack of anticipation. Hell, the only one anticipating anything are on the board, and it seems as though most have bought their fill (and then some, on MARGIN)! Let me tell you, margin can be a tricky and ugly thing; fortunately, I know how to play it just right - it's a matter of having sufficient credit cards so that you can reshuffle your money (credit!!) so that you can cover most any call! Works great, and then, well, you know, if you pick nothing but winners like I do, you just wait a few days for those stock to rocket right back up. Yes, I have been known to "sleep-type," but I swear I'm awake right now!
We need that lynch pin, but don't expect it by Monday afternoon. Once we have that, we can sit back and watch the marketing begin to take shape, and figure out if this high horsepower engine MNKD has built will actually perform out on the open road, or if we have to be towed back to the garage!
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 7, 2014 18:57:45 GMT -5
I do like the fact you're singing, Spiro, it's part of MNKD fatigue syndrome for sure, and I'm certain it has therapeutic value! Did you get back into POET in time for today's run-up, that will not doubt turn into tomorrow's sorrow?! LOL! I'll tell you what Monday will bring - more talk about ongoing negotiations, and some talk about what they plan to do with all that insulin they've committed to purchase; curious if the purchase is contingent on some sort of miracle, like Al Mann signing on the dotted line with a partner or two! If you're the insulin company, why would you agree to a contract like that... you're obligated to start ramping up for delivery, but oh by the way we have backsies and really don't have to buy it. If I were the company I'd say... come back with the PO when it's more than a letter of intent. I think they are committed to that purchase, and I think they will have to tell us Monday as to how much revenue they expect in each of those five years and provide a credible story for who's sales force can accomplish that. BTW... Someone on this board actually got a statement out of MNKD (I think Matt)... the statement was that they would not have done the deal if they weren't confident in the sales. It wasn't "oh don't worry about the deal... because we have a cancellation clause".
|
|