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Post by mnholdem on Apr 15, 2019 17:48:38 GMT -5
Flo makes about a million dollars a year......MNKD will not pay that kind of money. They would if it was effective! Castagna doesn’t appear to know what effective is beyond having a large department typical of BPs which handle commercializing a drug. He hasn’t demonstrated the skill set needed to build departments that achieve effectiveness and I doubt he’s ever built one from scratch. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 18, 2019 6:14:52 GMT -5
From ST....$MNKD United updates pipeline website features TreT with Bluhale Jacketed Device unither.com/pipeline.html
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 18, 2019 8:51:18 GMT -5
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 18, 2019 8:52:23 GMT -5
MNKD ($1.51) - Market Cap less than circa $300m...OK, time for idiocy is over.$400-500M current sales of Tyvaso and MNKD has a low double digit royalty. You can infer from this there is on the low end a 40-50M+ revenue stream once its approved. MNKD expects United to covert most of the Tyvaso business to its product due to convenience and tolerability. MNKD hasn’t projected how many more people may come to TreT because of this new formulation or how many more will stay on drug as they have high drop out rates today due to aspects of their product that MNKD can address. All this assumes they price it flat to Tyvaso which they may or may not do. This Royalty is good for 15+ years. You can all do the NPV. Let math jocks do it - but I will tell you that the NPV with even conservative discount rates comes out in the half billion dollar range. That imputes a fair PPS of well over $5 a share RIGHT NOW, if one includes the value of this revenue stream on top of the current market cap- as eventually it will be imputed into the share price by institutional investors. Forget the hacks on StockTwits and other channels. Anyone who sells based on that drivel is a fool. TOP BUY in #MKModelPortfolio Big value being left on the table right now. #MNKD
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 18, 2019 13:37:34 GMT -5
Okay, time to move more $$$ into my accounts ... AND ... create new accounts because they will be maxed out soon !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 18, 2019 19:07:03 GMT -5
MNKD ($1.51) - Market Cap less than circa $300m...OK, time for idiocy is over.$400-500M current sales of Tyvaso and MNKD has a low double digit royalty. You can infer from this there is on the low end a 40-50M+ revenue stream once its approved. MNKD expects United to covert most of the Tyvaso business to its product due to convenience and tolerability. MNKD hasn’t projected how many more people may come to TreT because of this new formulation or how many more will stay on drug as they have high drop out rates today due to aspects of their product that MNKD can address. All this assumes they price it flat to Tyvaso which they may or may not do. This Royalty is good for 15+ years. You can all do the NPV. Let math jocks do it - but I will tell you that the NPV with even conservative discount rates comes out in the half billion dollar range. That imputes a fair PPS of well over $5 a share RIGHT NOW, if one includes the value of this revenue stream on top of the current market cap- as eventually it will be imputed into the share price by institutional investors. Forget the hacks on StockTwits and other channels. Anyone who sells based on that drivel is a fool. TOP BUY in #MKModelPortfolio Big value being left on the table right now. #MNKD His problem is that he is expecting the sales and price for Tyvaso to be the same 15 years down the line as it is today. That isn't going to happen. There will be competition from generics and other treatments UTHR comes up with in the interval, inevitably the price and sales decline. Since MK asks lets take a stab at a model for the NPV. I have think TreT replaces Tyvaso entirely by 2022, but Ralinepag will be on sale in 2022 and given their investment in it UTHR are going to push it heavily. My guess is that sales start to fall off in 2023 and are mostly gone 7 years later. Using a WACC for the discount rate I reckon this gives an NPV of around: - $277M over the next 10 years based on a 15% royalty payment - $185M If MK is right and the royalty is 10%. I cannot see a path to MK's $500M NPV valuation. The revenue would have to increase unbelievably, and Tyvaso revenue has been flat at best (the last four years are $415M (there was a price increase), $372M, $404M, $470M). |
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Post by pantaloons on Apr 18, 2019 19:57:43 GMT -5
MNKD ($1.51) - Market Cap less than circa $300m...OK, time for idiocy is over.$400-500M current sales of Tyvaso and MNKD has a low double digit royalty. You can infer from this there is on the low end a 40-50M+ revenue stream once its approved. MNKD expects United to covert most of the Tyvaso business to its product due to convenience and tolerability. MNKD hasn’t projected how many more people may come to TreT because of this new formulation or how many more will stay on drug as they have high drop out rates today due to aspects of their product that MNKD can address. All this assumes they price it flat to Tyvaso which they may or may not do. This Royalty is good for 15+ years. You can all do the NPV. Let math jocks do it - but I will tell you that the NPV with even conservative discount rates comes out in the half billion dollar range. That imputes a fair PPS of well over $5 a share RIGHT NOW, if one includes the value of this revenue stream on top of the current market cap- as eventually it will be imputed into the share price by institutional investors. Forget the hacks on StockTwits and other channels. Anyone who sells based on that drivel is a fool. TOP BUY in #MKModelPortfolio Big value being left on the table right now. #MNKD His problem is that he is expecting the sales and price for Tyvaso to be the same 15 years down the line as it is today. That isn't going to happen. There will be competition from generics and other treatments UTHR comes up with in the interval, inevitably the price and sales decline. Since MK asks lets take a stab at a model for the NPV. I have think TreT replaces Tyvaso entirely by 2022, but Ralinepag will be on sale in 2022 and given their investment in it UTHR are going to push it heavily. My guess is that sales start to fall off in 2023 and are mostly gone 7 years later. Using a WACC for the discount rate I reckon this gives an NPV of around: - $277M over the next 10 years based on a 15% royalty payment - $185M If MK is right and the royalty is 10%. I cannot see a path to MK's $500M NPV valuation. The revenue would have to increase unbelievably, and Tyvaso revenue has been flat at best (the last four years are $415M (there was a price increase), $372M, $404M, $470M). From my naive understanding of PAH treatment, I imagine it's reasonable for TrepT to be 1st line, due to its long history of efficacy/safety and cost. On the other hand, Ralinepag is still being studied, and while may demonstrate superiority in some respect, utilization may be limited for some time. In addition, while these are both prostacyclin receptor agonists, it is possible they may still be administered together, as the exact receptors activated by Ralinepag is yet to be elucidated precisely (the prostacyclin receptors represent a large family) and co-administration may have added benefits. Additional clinical data will help to establish the efficacy of Ralinepag and its role in PAH management. |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 18, 2019 20:57:05 GMT -5
His problem is that he is expecting the sales and price for Tyvaso to be the same 15 years down the line as it is today. That isn't going to happen. There will be competition from generics and other treatments UTHR comes up with in the interval, inevitably the price and sales decline. Since MK asks lets take a stab at a model for the NPV. I have think TreT replaces Tyvaso entirely by 2022, but Ralinepag will be on sale in 2022 and given their investment in it UTHR are going to push it heavily. My guess is that sales start to fall off in 2023 and are mostly gone 7 years later. Using a WACC for the discount rate I reckon this gives an NPV of around: - $277M over the next 10 years based on a 15% royalty payment - $185M If MK is right and the royalty is 10%. I cannot see a path to MK's $500M NPV valuation. The revenue would have to increase unbelievably, and Tyvaso revenue has been flat at best (the last four years are $415M (there was a price increase), $372M, $404M, $470M). From my naive understanding of PAH treatment, I imagine it's reasonable for TrepT to be 1st line, due to its long history of efficacy/safety and cost. On the other hand, Ralinepag is still being studied, and while may demonstrate superiority in some respect, utilization may be limited for some time. In addition, while these are both prostacyclin receptor agonists, it is possible they may still be administered together, as the exact receptors activated by Ralinepag is yet to be elucidated precisely (the prostacyclin receptors represent a large family) and co-administration may have added benefits. Additional clinical data will help to establish the efficacy of Ralinepag and its role in PAH management. I think that your comments are perfectly reasonable and for the first 3 years after launch I only gave Ralinepag a maximum of 25% of the market. Ralinepag is currently in Phase 3 trials, and the Phase 2 extension trials had good results (good enough for UTHR to put $800M cash upfront!). Ralinepag will need to cannibalize the Tyvaso market if it is going to even just cover that upfront payment, especially with the further $400M of milestones. Dual therapy would be the ideal situation for UTHR - essentially doubling the revenue stream. |
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Post by wsulylecoug on Apr 18, 2019 23:01:30 GMT -5
New information to me was the relative youth of the PAH disease classification itself which came about in the 90's and continues to evolve. WHO Group 1 is relatively well-treated (approx 30,000 patients)...but Group 2 (~35,000 patients) & 3 (~250,000 patients) were referred to as "virgin territory" by Martine and is what the pipeline is focused on. The P3 studies aimed at Groups 2 & 3 are all using Tyvaso as the primary treatment or a component of treatment. Tyvaso = TreT. During the Cowen presentation it was stated that UT planned to double in size within a few years and double again in size in the 2020's on the back of TreT. That was great to hear, but I was sort of left scratching my head at how that was going to happen. These patient numbers clear that up a bit...and I sure like low double digit royalties of that expansion going to MNKD! Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11088/uthr-oppenheimer-healthcare-conf?page=3#This doesn’t sound like declining sales in 2023 to me. I believe what is said when Martine is at the mic. |
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Post by Clement on Apr 19, 2019 7:37:43 GMT -5
From ST....$MNKD United updates pipeline website features TreT with Bluhale Jacketed Device unither.com/pipeline.html Today I can see it. www.unither.com/pipeline.html |
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Post by kite on Apr 19, 2019 8:18:15 GMT -5
From ST....$MNKD United updates pipeline website features TreT with Bluhale Jacketed Device unither.com/pipeline.html Today I can see it. www.unither.com/pipeline.htmlThat is awesome! |
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Post by mike0475 on Apr 20, 2019 9:27:00 GMT -5
I’m investing in UT!
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Post by lennymnkd on Apr 22, 2019 11:46:57 GMT -5
Just on CNBC / Pete najarian likes TEVA for its new and coming inhale able pain management / hmmm always though Teva would be an interesting fit .
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Post by longliner on Apr 22, 2019 12:04:31 GMT -5
Just on CNBC / Pete najarian likes TEVA for its new and coming inhale able pain management / hmmm always though Teva would be an interesting fit . Unfortunately, if memory serves me correct, I believe TEVA has their own platform, possibly something with Phillip Frost and OPCO. I do hope you are correct! I agree Teva would be an interesting fit. I thought that was the direction we were headed when Al listed on that exchange long ago. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Apr 22, 2019 12:41:46 GMT -5
It may at first appear unfortunate that TEVA might have their own platform, but validation of inhalable pain relief should get the competition interested.
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