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Post by mnholdem on Aug 8, 2014 14:57:41 GMT -5
mnholdem, I think you miss a sizable camp that is long but not harboring belief of huge short term jump (500 - 1000%). However, after approval we've had two analysts put targets of $15 and $16 on the stock. Even getting to $15 would be a good run from here and an amazing one from the year's low. I don't claim to have much ability to predict short term moves of MNKD stock price. Right now I'm thinking an announcement of a partner, unless containing some amazing and unexepcted financial terms such as equity investment in MNKD at high pps, will put us somewhere in the $11 - $20 range. What I would call "realistic longs" are in the same camp as "emotional longs".
Also, even though I have never shorted a stock, I think that buying options based on the belief that there will be a pullback is a perfectly legitimate strategy for the creation of wealth. Many short traders consider a publicly pumping a stock to be unethical, just as most longs think that it's unethical to bash a stock. Both are often misleading.
I also think that it can be a good strategy for a long-term investor to sell shares as they peak, in order to re-enter after a pullback and buy even more shares for the same total investment.
There are many shades of grey and I'm not attempting to lump investors and traders into two over-simplified categories. I have learned, as many have, that too much emotion can lead to being disappointed or making poor investment decisions, like selling too soon.
I think a partnership announcement with an upfront payment and a solid sales & marketing presentation will put MNKD into the $15-$20 range. Whether we hit that range will depend on the market's reaction to the deal, so I hope Al and the kids make a great presentation on Monday.
MNKD is not a "lottery ticket" to riches, but it is shaping up to be one of the best long investments I have ever made. Great company.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 8, 2014 17:25:07 GMT -5
BTW... thank you all for the respectful replies, even though I may have offended you by appearing to "lump" you into one of only two camps: Those who expect MNKD will go up or down. That was not my intent. Over at YMB, both bashers and pumpers would have torn me to shreds. Our Pro Boards moderators may be blocking some abusive replies, but I doubt it. I cannot express how impressed I am with the civility demonstrated here. Wow!
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 8, 2014 17:31:24 GMT -5
Mnholdem, that's our culture here. Relax, take a deep breath, and enjoy....
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Post by BD on Aug 8, 2014 17:37:44 GMT -5
BTW... thank you all for the respectful replies, even though I may have offended you by appearing to "lump" you into one of only two camps: Those who expect MNKD will go up or down. That was not my intent. Over at YMB, both bashers and pumpers would have torn me to shreds. Our Pro Boards moderators may be blocking some abusive replies, but I doubt it. I cannot express how impressed I am with the civility demonstrated here. Wow! Thanks... and you're right, we don't "block" anything. The only members who've ever been banned are either spam-bots or trolls who cybercided themselves first (and that we helped to not come back by banning them afterwards.) And I can proudly say that's the case across all 3 boards I administer (this one, and the GMCR and LVS ProBoards). The idjuts don't need to be banned, they're pretty much run out of town with tails between their legs by the awesome locals
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Post by liane on Aug 8, 2014 17:47:34 GMT -5
BD - you beat me to the response. Absolutely true, we don't need to intervene very often. Sometimes people inadvertently fall into YMB habits, but a gentle PM generally takes care of that.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2014 18:02:22 GMT -5
BD - you beat me to the response. Absolutely true, we don't need to intervene very often. Sometimes people inadvertently fall into YMB habits, but a gentle PM generally takes care of that. YMB, what's that?
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Post by liane on Aug 8, 2014 18:10:35 GMT -5
YMB = Yahoo Message Board
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2014 18:16:45 GMT -5
YMB = Yahoo Message Board Liane, seriously, did you not see the tongue in cheek lol
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Post by liane on Aug 8, 2014 18:25:54 GMT -5
joey,
OK - you got me!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 8, 2014 18:26:16 GMT -5
BD - you beat me to the response. Absolutely true, we don't need to intervene very often. Sometimes people inadvertently fall into YMB habits, but a gentle PM generally takes care of that. YMB, what's that? It's listed as a "mental disorder of unknown origin" in the DSM, including long list of "YMB habits" that are that are used for diagnosing it. Some predict a cure will be announced Monday, in powdered drug form. Others believe it incurable.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 8, 2014 19:16:16 GMT -5
YMB also stands for "Yesterday's Message Board..."
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Post by in search of the truth on Aug 8, 2014 21:33:32 GMT -5
I understand that a buyout would most likely set the share price higher than a partnership and should, if MNKD really is 72 million plus short, cause justice to be served for those who chose the short camp, but maybe not. Maybe the shorts have an out that my feeble mind can't comprehend. And I understand that if MNKD partners and there is no Buyout now, then the pps would probably rise in a less dramatic fashion and eventually depend on the fundamentals that we all look at when evaluationg stocks (Sales, revenues, PE ratios, etc.) which will take time, probably until about August of 2015 to sort out and have 1 or 2 quarters of data to support the PPS.
However, could there be a third scenario? MNKD partners "well" and the shorts finally realize that they better cover now and a massive short squeeze takes the PPS to unwarranted high levels before settling back to a PPS supported by the fundamentals?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 8, 2014 21:41:20 GMT -5
I understand that a buyout would most likely set the share price higher than a partnership and should, if MNKD really is 72 million plus short, cause justice to be served for those who chose the short camp, but maybe not. Maybe the shorts have an out that my feeble mind can't comprehend. And I understand that if MNKD partners and there is no Buyout now, then the pps would probably rise in a less dramatic fashion and eventually depend on the fundamentals that we all look at when evaluationg stocks (Sales, revenues, PE ratios, etc.) which will take time, probably until about August of 2015 to sort out and have 1 or 2 quarters of data to support the PPS. However, could there be a third scenario? MNKD partners "well" and the shorts finally realize that they better cover now and a massive short squeeze takes the PPS to unwarranted high levels before settling back to a PPS supported by the fundamentals? Scenario three: they get a partner and part of the deal is the partner purchasing X million shares of MNKD for $Y, thus setting a price but leaving a public company with Al still clearly calling the shots. Likely are scenarios 4 through 7 as well.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 9, 2014 6:00:54 GMT -5
However, could there be a third scenario? MNKD partners "well" and the shorts finally realize that they better cover now and a massive short squeeze takes the PPS to unwarranted high levels before settling back to a PPS supported by the fundamentals? IMHO this is the most likely scenario. A spike occurs, shorts abandon their current positions and set up a new camp, then a pullback to the new valuation supported by the market. Bashing and pumping resumes until earnings confirm MNKD did create a blockbuster, with more blockbusters in the pipeline on the way. Many will take advantage of the squeeze to exit and then re-enter later after the pullback to maximize earnings. Holding for another five years is another valid strategy as I wouldn't be surprised to see $50 pps after Afrezza has a few years of global revenues rolling in, assuming they aren't acquired in a few years once their blockbuster status is confirmed in the domestic market.
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 9, 2014 6:28:27 GMT -5
I read a post which mentioned that if MNKD declared a special dividend, say $10, the people who are short MNKD would be on the hook to pay it. Does anyone know if this is in fact true? If so, MNKD should announce that at the CC with a "shareholders as of" date of COB Tuesday! (This of course assumes that MNKD gets $$$ upfront from the partner)
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