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Post by mannmade on May 7, 2019 10:14:26 GMT -5
So imho this was a very lackluster cc. However a couple of positive notes I took from it were as follows:
1. DF paid $2.5 in cash. I will take this to mean Mnkd is not worried about future cash needs for 2019 2. Mnkd is building out their factory for Trep T 3. Mnkd expects to recieve the 2nd Uthr milestone payment in 2nd half of 2019 based on completion of item two above 4. DF will be off the books as a debtor (yes I am aware of milestone payments) with the $9.5m payment due in beginning of 3rd Q 19 5. With final payment of principal to DF, Mnkd removes DF collateralization of mnkd assets, possibly paving the way for better debt terms in the future if necessary 6. Seems RLS relationship is moving forward if ever so slowly 7. Brazil appears on track for approval if later than expected
Now the questions I have that were not answered:
1. Analysis of DTC consumer campaign 2. Effects of DTC program 3. Where is Garrett Ingram and social media campaign 4. What is the plan to address reluctant doctors and the insurance industry 5. What is Dr. K doing 6. Other deals in the pipeline 7. Path and timeline to break even 8. What is retention percentage and why not higher (as I suspect it is not high enough)
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Post by hopingandwilling on May 7, 2019 12:18:33 GMT -5
Is this the first time in history that a drug company ran TV ads where the ensuing sequential prescriptions actually declined from the previous quarter? Not good --IMO!
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Post by barnstormer on May 7, 2019 12:31:19 GMT -5
It's December in May! Another $50MM dilution. The news isn't that good Mike to drop another bomb like this. I guess your're playing the only cards you have. Yikes. The cup may be half full, but it has a continuous leak. If you listened to the call, this was a replacement ATM that was expiring. The shares were already reserved for the $2.38 warrants that didn’t exercise. It’s not additional dilution over and above what was already planned. Thank you for the clairification. My post was made before the call when the PR was first released and smacked of more dilution. The fact remains that using the ATM essentially is dilution. I hope it is used wisely.
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Post by mannmade on May 7, 2019 12:34:36 GMT -5
Is this the first time in history that a drug company ran TV ads where the ensuing sequential prescriptions actually declined from the previous quarter? Not good --IMO! What you are missing is that apparently most drug companies see a decline in first quarter as I understand it due to the rush to fill scripts in December to take advantage of filled deductables, which only heightens the desparity with lower January sales due to the new deductables. Imho, the desparity was not as low as it would have been had their been no commercials as it was a much lower percentage than the previous comparable time frame a year ealrier. Despite the above, I have always said that commercials will not drive enough script numbers until the bottleneck of doctors and insurance resistance is removed sufficently. However I do beleive you need a basic amount of awareness for the product in the marketplace which commercials can provide. I would however run fewer commercials and supplient media schedules with a robust online/social media campaign and other channels.
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Post by mnkdfann on May 7, 2019 14:11:26 GMT -5
Is this the first time in history that a drug company ran TV ads where the ensuing sequential prescriptions actually declined from the previous quarter? Not good --IMO! What you are missing is that apparently most drug companies see a decline in first quarter as I understand it due to the rush to fill scripts in December to take advantage of filled deductables, which only heightens the desparity with lower January sales due to the new deductables. Imho, the desparity was not as low as it would have been had their been no commercials as it was a much lower percentage than the previous comparable time frame a year ealrier. I guess it depends what metrics you use. In 2018, it took 3 months to surpass the 2017 TRX high. Here we are in May of 2019, and we have yet to pass the 2018 TRX high. The closest we ever came was still 68 scripts short. (Of course, there are the missing Eagle scripts.) We have also yet to hit the highest 2018 weekly sales figure. (The above is all based on my reading of Liane's table. If I misread something, someone please correct me.)
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Post by ktim on May 7, 2019 14:21:30 GMT -5
Just for reference, Afrezza net revenue in Q4 2018 was $5.7M, Q1 2019 was $5.1M with the $9.3M TV campaign and the DTC program. Just for reference, We also continued to grow Afrezza net revenue by 49% compared to 1Q 2018 and we released new clinical data at scientific meetings that continue to differentiate Afrezza from other rapid acting insulins,” said Michael Castagna. The MNKD cup is half full ... not half empty. It's great there's some cup that's half full. My retirement account cup keeps on going down from the dilution and reverse splits.
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Post by mnkdfann on May 7, 2019 14:23:58 GMT -5
MNKD certainly had bad luck picking a day for an earnings call, didn't it?
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Post by hellodolly on May 7, 2019 14:33:29 GMT -5
Is this the first time in history that a drug company ran TV ads where the ensuing sequential prescriptions actually declined from the previous quarter? Not good --IMO! Good luck finding the answer to the history of TV advertising and results on scripts for the last 40 years, starting with Bayer Aspirin or JnJ Baby Aspirin.
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Post by mytakeonit on May 7, 2019 16:28:59 GMT -5
Sounds like the ads were run to off set the normal down trend in the 1st quarter. My question now is ... if they didn't run the ads ... would our 1st quarter revenues be $14.4M? Only kidding ... to make you all think in a different frame of mind.
Anyway, seems that we are covered till mid 2020 ... and just have to wait for Brazil and India to happen.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by sportsrancho on May 7, 2019 19:07:28 GMT -5
And I have always said that the demand has to come from the patient, and Dr. Kendall just said Afrezza is consumer driven. Good luck trying to go after the doctors first, just my opinion.
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Post by sayhey24 on May 7, 2019 19:24:01 GMT -5
Sports - we have been saying for a long time until significant changes are made to the SOC afrezza scripts will grow but they will grow very slowly. TV ads are not going to sell afrezza but I think the TV ads worked out better than I expected as a lot of people saw them and afrezza is no longer a total unknown.
When Mike gets serious about selling afrezza he will partner to open dedicated health and wellness clinics which specialize in diabetes and leverage CGM and connected care technology and afrezza. I would expect each clinic to do a minimum of 100 scripts per week which is a lot more than our current sales staff is doing. and the clinics would be profitable.
Endos are not our friend and PCPs just don't have the focus to properly treat PWDs.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 7, 2019 19:39:36 GMT -5
Completely agree, let’s get serious!
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Post by cedafuntennis on May 7, 2019 22:17:46 GMT -5
Sports - we have been saying for a long time until significant changes are made to the SOC afrezza scripts will grow but they will grow very slowly. TV ads are not going to sell afrezza but I think the TV ads worked out better than I expected as a lot of people saw them and afrezza is no longer a total unknown. When Mike gets serious about selling afrezza he will partner to open dedicated health and wellness clinics which specialize in diabetes and leverage CGM and connected care technology and afrezza. I would expect each clinic to do a minimum of 100 scripts per week which is a lot more than our current sales staff is doing. and the clinics would be profitable. Endos are not our friend and PCPs just don't have the focus to properly treat PWDs. So why don't they partner with VDEX in a serious way? Money a hell of a lot better infested that that stupid add they ran for 9 mil. If it's an FDA roadblock, I'm sure they could find a legal avenue to that.
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Post by blueice on May 7, 2019 22:36:07 GMT -5
Sports - we have been saying for a long time until significant changes are made to the SOC afrezza scripts will grow but they will grow very slowly. TV ads are not going to sell afrezza but I think the TV ads worked out better than I expected as a lot of people saw them and afrezza is no longer a total unknown. When Mike gets serious about selling afrezza he will partner to open dedicated health and wellness clinics which specialize in diabetes and leverage CGM and connected care technology and afrezza. I would expect each clinic to do a minimum of 100 scripts per week which is a lot more than our current sales staff is doing. and the clinics would be profitable. Endos are not our friend and PCPs just don't have the focus to properly treat PWDs. So why don't they partner with VDEX in a serious way? Money a hell of a lot better infested that that stupid add they ran for 9 mil. If it's an FDA roadblock, I'm sure they could find a legal avenue to that. Existing sales resources from MannKind should be integrated into the VDEX infrastructure (as the homebase for sales activity).
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Post by stevil on May 7, 2019 23:07:18 GMT -5
Sports - we have been saying for a long time until significant changes are made to the SOC afrezza scripts will grow but they will grow very slowly. TV ads are not going to sell afrezza but I think the TV ads worked out better than I expected as a lot of people saw them and afrezza is no longer a total unknown. When Mike gets serious about selling afrezza he will partner to open dedicated health and wellness clinics which specialize in diabetes and leverage CGM and connected care technology and afrezza. I would expect each clinic to do a minimum of 100 scripts per week which is a lot more than our current sales staff is doing. and the clinics would be profitable. Endos are not our friend and PCPs just don't have the focus to properly treat PWDs. sayhey, I must have missed it in your posting history. What is your story? You often speak with authority and I was wondering why that is...
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