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Post by Chris-C on May 7, 2019 14:39:47 GMT -5
I'm very curious about what Nate Pile is thinking about the call. Will he advise his clients to hold, trim their holdings, or buy more? I have empathy for Mike Castagna. Clearly, the huge expenses in advertising are not yielding the return we all hoped for. I haven't seen an ad, so I cannot comment. But I'm intrigued that so many on the board are not impressed with the ad itself.
Perhaps the larger question is what is the realistic timeline between when someone is motivated to follow up on an ad and when that motivation results in additional scripts? Hopefully, the leadership team has a timeframe in mind and has employed marketing experts who know their craft. We've acknowledged provider resistance to innovation as a key factor in addition to insurance pre-authorization hurdles. How to overcome that barrier is a key question. I'm assuming that Mike and the executive team have thought through the challenges and are working on them, but time and money are in short supply; and that is what keeps the short interest so alive and well.
Personally, I am of the mind that much of the current agony can be laid at the feet of the FDA, the SEC, and the convicted felon and scumbag, Martin Shkreli. Just of course, IMHO. The delay that resulted from the delayed approval may have proven to be an important factor in the current state of the company. Added to this was Al Mann's passing, poor leadership that missed an opportunity to raise capital with minimal dilution; a change in leadership at Sanofi; and a failure of MNKD management to plan for the possibility that Sanofi would pull the plug. At the end of the day, two things are important to the success of companies: good timing, and good leadership.
I believe that in investing, patience is rewarded; but I'm beginning to ask myself: "What is the record for time between a public offering and an acceptable ROI?" I think we might be approaching it.
GLTAL Chris C
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2019 14:59:42 GMT -5
I'm very curious about what Nate Pile is thinking about the call. Will he advise his clients to hold, trim their holdings, or buy more? I have empathy for Mike Castagna. Clearly, the huge expenses in advertising are not yielding the return we all hoped for. I haven't seen an ad, so I cannot comment. But I'm intrigued that so many on the board are not impressed with the ad itself. Perhaps the larger question is what is the realistic timeline between when someone is motivated to follow up on an ad and when that motivation results in additional scripts? Hopefully, the leadership team has a timeframe in mind and has employed marketing experts who know their craft. We've acknowledged provider resistance to innovation as a key factor in addition to insurance pre-authorization hurdles. How to overcome that barrier is a key question. I'm assuming that Mike and the executive team have thought through the challenges and are working on them, but time and money are in short supply; and that is what keeps the short interest so alive and well. Personally, I am of the mind that much of the current agony can be laid at the feet of the FDA, the SEC, and the convicted felon and scumbag, Martin Shkreli. Just of course, IMHO. The delay that resulted from the delayed approval may have proven to be an important factor in the current state of the company. Added to this was Al Mann's passing, poor leadership that missed an opportunity to raise capital with minimal dilution; a change in leadership at Sanofi; and a failure of MNKD management to plan for the possibility that Sanofi would pull the plug. At the end of the day, two things are important to the success of companies: good timing, and good leadership. I believe that in investing, patience is rewarded; but I'm beginning to ask myself: "What is the record for time between a public offering and an acceptable ROI?" I think we might be approaching it. GLTAL Chris C Good perspective Chris. Mannkind has had to climb out of a very slippery hole and yes, there have been coordinated efforts to destroy Afrezza. That being said, it is time for some changes. The skill sets required to make Mannkind successful are not present in the current leadership team and todays presentation demonstrated absolutely no chances of the fortunes of the company changing. Afrezza sales are pathetic and the growth, unacceptable.
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Post by mnkdfann on May 7, 2019 16:22:43 GMT -5
Good read. I 'like' where Mike said: "[W]e do have high market share in people that have been using the drug" Does that line make sense to anyone? Isn't it like saying, say, among those people who like pizza, a large percentage of them like pizza?
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Post by mnkdfann on May 7, 2019 16:30:00 GMT -5
As a Canuck, I also like where Mike described Canada as being 'kind'. Love you too, Mike.
(If 'kind' was a typo in the transcript, I don't want to hear about it.)
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Post by boytroy88 on May 7, 2019 16:34:09 GMT -5
One phrase comes to mind after reading most of the comments...."natives are getting restless"
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Post by mytakeonit on May 7, 2019 16:46:35 GMT -5
"[W]e do have high market share in people that have been using the drug" = Retention
And Chris C ... as I said before ... the problem with MNKD shares in the future is ... "At what price do I want to sell?"
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by falconquest on May 7, 2019 17:05:17 GMT -5
I'm very curious about what Nate Pile is thinking about the call. Will he advise his clients to hold, trim their holdings, or buy more? I have empathy for Mike Castagna. Clearly, the huge expenses in advertising are not yielding the return we all hoped for. I haven't seen an ad, so I cannot comment. But I'm intrigued that so many on the board are not impressed with the ad itself. Perhaps the larger question is what is the realistic timeline between when someone is motivated to follow up on an ad and when that motivation results in additional scripts? Hopefully, the leadership team has a timeframe in mind and has employed marketing experts who know their craft. We've acknowledged provider resistance to innovation as a key factor in addition to insurance pre-authorization hurdles. How to overcome that barrier is a key question. I'm assuming that Mike and the executive team have thought through the challenges and are working on them, but time and money are in short supply; and that is what keeps the short interest so alive and well. Personally, I am of the mind that much of the current agony can be laid at the feet of the FDA, the SEC, and the convicted felon and scumbag, Martin Shkreli. Just of course, IMHO. The delay that resulted from the delayed approval may have proven to be an important factor in the current state of the company. Added to this was Al Mann's passing, poor leadership that missed an opportunity to raise capital with minimal dilution; a change in leadership at Sanofi; and a failure of MNKD management to plan for the possibility that Sanofi would pull the plug. At the end of the day, two things are important to the success of companies: good timing, and good leadership. I believe that in investing, patience is rewarded; but I'm beginning to ask myself: "What is the record for time between a public offering and an acceptable ROI?" I think we might be approaching it. GLTAL Chris C It's fascinating to me just how many negative things have happened to Mannkind. This company can't get a break ever! Now as mnkdfann reports, Mike says: "[W]e do have high market share in people that have been using the drug" Hello? Does this not remind you of the "embarrassment of riches" comment" or the "please call me" about making a deal line? I'm sure Mike meant to say that retention among current users is high but to make the sort of statement he did is just incredulous. As for the ad, think of a park scene where people are enjoying the sunshine and little hamburgers float out of the sky attached to parachutes. Creative perhaps but effective......not so much.
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Post by ktim on May 7, 2019 17:11:36 GMT -5
Adult users on facebook, etc. keep saying they want 2 unit cartridges. MC just said pediatrics can use 4 unit and 2 unit is not needed. Why doesn't he listen to actual users? Because the price will not be attractive. Here's an example - The 6oz 6-Pack of Sodas (tiny cans) cost more than the normal 6-Pack of the 12oz cans. Who will buy it?? The patients think 2U will be better for tight control but it wont. Your body will only use enough insulin that it needs and secrete the rest so the 4U is fine. That really isn't how insulin works. Afrezza just like any other insulin will cause hypos if more than is needed is dosed. It does have the benefit of being shorter lived so less risk of outlasting food, but the body does not sense what is needed and somehow get rid of the rest. That would be a dangerous misconception for a patient to have.
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Post by ktim on May 7, 2019 17:13:55 GMT -5
I'm very curious about what Nate Pile is thinking about the call. Will he advise his clients to hold, trim their holdings, or buy more? I have empathy for Mike Castagna. Clearly, the huge expenses in advertising are not yielding the return we all hoped for. I haven't seen an ad, so I cannot comment. But I'm intrigued that so many on the board are not impressed with the ad itself. So many on the board keep on hoping for ads that we all know don't conform with FDA guidelines. But it seems kind of pointless to continually point out the restrictions.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 7, 2019 18:31:47 GMT -5
OK I just read the transcript and I apologize for what I said about them hiding the eagle scripts, clearly that is not what Mike was talking about he was talking about the commercial ..running them for a few weeks stopping running them for a few more weeks..that’s what they have to analyze and that’s where some of the symphony numbers are missing from, it had nothing to do with the eagle pharmacy. And Mike even concluded that we need a new different commercial :-)
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Post by mango on May 7, 2019 18:37:27 GMT -5
"[W]e do have high market share in people that have been using the drug" = Retention And Chris C ... as I said before ... the problem with MNKD shares in the future is ... "At what price do I want to sell?" But, that's mytakeonit I logged in just to like your post.
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Post by mango on May 7, 2019 18:50:02 GMT -5
Because the price will not be attractive. Here's an example - The 6oz 6-Pack of Sodas (tiny cans) cost more than the normal 6-Pack of the 12oz cans. Who will buy it?? The patients think 2U will be better for tight control but it wont. Your body will only use enough insulin that it needs and secrete the rest so the 4U is fine. That really isn't how insulin works. Afrezza just like any other insulin will cause hypos if more than is needed is dosed. It does have the benefit of being shorter lived so less risk of outlasting food, but the body does not sense what is needed and somehow get rid of the rest. That would be a dangerous misconception for a patient to have. Under normal physiologic conditions CaMKII regulates what is needed. Even so, the beta cells always secrete an inprecise amount of insulin because the first phase release is depepeent on the previous GSIS and Ca2+ conditions. I understand what chuck meant, and 80& agree. Howeever, there are Afrezza Users that McGyver a 2U cartridge...Laura Kronen is|has been one, I believe.
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Post by ltta on May 7, 2019 18:57:28 GMT -5
OK I just read the transcript and I apologize for what I said about them hiding the eagle scripts, clearly that is not what Mike was talking about he was talking about the commercial ..running them for a few weeks stopping running them for a few more weeks..that’s what they have to analyze and that’s where some of the symphony numbers are missing from, it had nothing to do with the eagle pharmacy. And Mike even concluded that we need a new different commercial :-) It's truly disappointing that Mannkind spent $9.3M on a TV campaign for the CEO to conclude that we need a new different commercial. :-(
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Post by sportsrancho on May 7, 2019 18:58:48 GMT -5
That really isn't how insulin works. Afrezza just like any other insulin will cause hypos if more than is needed is dosed. It does have the benefit of being shorter lived so less risk of outlasting food, but the body does not sense what is needed and somehow get rid of the rest. That would be a dangerous misconception for a patient to have. Under normal physiologic conditions CaMKII regulates what is needed. Even so, the beta cells always secrete an inprecise amount of insulin because the first phase release is depepeent on the previous GSIS and Ca2+ conditions. I understand what chuck meant, and 80& agree. Howeever, there are Afrezza Users that McGyver a 2U cartridge...Laura Kronen is|has been one, I believe. Yes and Danielle who just interviewed Dr. Kendall would like a 2 unit as she specified in her interview ..although Laura doesn’t seem to have any problem cutting one of the 4 units in-half.
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Post by mango on May 7, 2019 19:06:43 GMT -5
Under normal physiologic conditions CaMKII regulates what is needed. Even so, the beta cells always secrete an inprecise amount of insulin because the first phase release is depepeent on the previous GSIS and Ca2+ conditions. I understand what chuck meant, and 80& agree. Howeever, there are Afrezza Users that McGyver a 2U cartridge...Laura Kronen is|has been one, I believe. Yes and Danielle who just interviewed Dr. Kendall would like a 2 unit as she specified in her interview ..although Laura doesn’t seem to have any problem cutting one of the 4 units in-half. Daniell laid a few truth bombs on Dr. Kendall and I loved it! Dr. Kendall 100% of my respect too...I really enjoyed this interview!!
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