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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 8, 2019 16:26:03 GMT -5
This doesn't seem fair. I have two thumbs. Why can't I give joeypotsandpans' post at least 2 thumbs up?
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Post by ktim on Aug 8, 2019 16:32:09 GMT -5
Keep your eye on the prize....another exit door closed yesterday ( anticipated, widely advertised nearer term dilution, those are now having to reinvent their spreadsheets), the only hedge remaining are options against the short position and those who have to take the other side of that are banking on them expiring worthless...when that gets threatened like what was seen two October's ago is when the fireworks take place just like it did then before they got bailed out by the pipeline funding...the next time the liklihood of that (dilution) bailing them out is reduced especially with the prepayment penalty of the debt financing in place. Position squaring will/should be evident at the close of each day you see "manufactured" sales...chances are you will see it (squaring) in the last 30 minutes and after hours.   case in point:  Spreadsheets and models are good if the goal posts can't be moved...I know SO always adds a disclaimer that a swan event can happen but he did not foresee or count the UTHR deal into the spreadsheets because he couldn't forecast those numbers before the deal was announced...same here with the debt financing, it moves the goal posts and in turn he has to adjust/add/redo his calculations. I chuckled when I saw the debt financing because one of the first visions I had were those having to scramble and rethink their numbers and time frames. Today alone probably added a million plus to the SI so it's laughable to think that minimal dilution from the debt financing and associated warrants will have much of an effect if at all as it continues to get absorbed pretty easily with the "borrowed time" shares getting sold....risk/reward, $1.07 upside or unlimited downside...with the runway continuing to get extended the risk/reward ratio just got a bit more ridiculous (for the $1.07 upside), this will probably get re-iterated by Nate here shortly if it hasn't already. SO gets dinged for not being clairvoyant? or updating his financial projections when things change? Every company I've worked for moves the goal posts (updates) projections as events occur... as does every stock analyst. Does your version of Excel come with a function that can foretell the future? Who's it saying will be our next partner and when? I bet even MC would love to get hold of that forecasting tool. He'd be able to give revenue guidance and meet it  If SO was predicting some massive amount of dilution way out of step with what happened, you might have reason to fault him. But I don't believe he did. I'd agree that the dilution yesterday will have little effect on share price, if that's what you meant. Those that were looking at the financials, such as SO keeps (as I do as well), were already factoring in a probability of some dilution. That was thus likely mostly baked into share price. Now I'm willing to give MC the benefit of the doubt and assume the potential dilution we already know about will be all. Will be interesting if SO gives the same benefit of the doubt... or simply doubts. If most people believe MC, then that will become the expectation and deviation from it will disappoint and lower share price (which hopefully has low probability of occurring). |
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Post by peppy on Aug 8, 2019 18:01:56 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 2,726,518 shares. MNKD Nasdaq Summary volume, 3,856,330 shares. MNKD $1.08. -0.04. -3.57% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd |
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2019 9:18:13 GMT -5
finally some volume coming in. 317,966 real time shares in 44 mins.
price needs to break $1.20 then $1.50 for the share price to start moving up.
Price hit $1.20 last week.
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 9, 2019 12:19:22 GMT -5
You are too peppy ... hold your horses till I return from Las Vegas in two weeks. Then you can start the peppy rally.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 9, 2019 14:19:29 GMT -5
finally some volume coming in. 317,966 real time shares in 44 mins. price needs to break $1.20 then $1.50 for the share price to start moving up. Price hit $1.20 last week. The longer the basing pattern the bigger the move...this will slice right through those numbers when they take the restraints off. Keep in mind, the competition could not allow this equity to make headlines in any significant positive fashion, if this blew up on the financial news networks then that would mean more national attention than any ads could buy....think of the attention Beyond Meats got as it was ripping higher and the short positions were getting strangled, before you went to the counter and they listed the "impossible burger" you might ask what it was, now many more people know exactly what that is....we were on verge of it two October's ago when we ripped to 7, it was imperative (for the competition) to halt it in it's footsteps...if I remember even Pete Najarian made a slight mention of options action. A true rise in sp will also be the street's validation/attraction to the company, momentum will beget momentum but this time looking back a $1/sh will be laughable. When that happens is when you will really start to see BO/partner offers/rumors, upgrades, etc. As I have recently texted to some good friends when I picked up my last lot of 10K shares before the conference call, I am either insane, a genius, or an insane genius (I'm sure Nate has been labeled similar lol). |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 9, 2019 14:59:59 GMT -5
finally some volume coming in. 317,966 real time shares in 44 mins. price needs to break $1.20 then $1.50 for the share price to start moving up. Price hit $1.20 last week. The longer the basing pattern the bigger the move...this will slice right through those numbers when they take the restraints off. Keep in mind, the competition could not allow this equity to make headlines in any significant positive fashion, if this blew up on the financial news networks then that would mean more national attention than any ads could buy....think of the attention Beyond Meats got as it was ripping higher and the short positions were getting strangled, before you went to the counter and they listed the "impossible burger" you might ask what it was, now many more people know exactly what that is....we were on verge of it two October's ago when we ripped to 7, it was imperative (for the competition) to halt it in it's footsteps...if I remember even Pete Najarian made a slight mention of options action. A true rise in sp will also be the street's validation/attraction to the company, momentum will beget momentum but this time looking back a $1/sh will be laughable. When that happens is when you will really start to see BO/partner offers/rumors, upgrades, etc. As I have recently texted to some good friends when I picked up my last lot of 10K shares before the conference call, I am either insane, a genius, or an insane genius (I'm sure Nate has been labeled similar lol). Yes Joey..That was so fun when Pete tweeted that on Twitter ..I believe that was my OMG thread:-) Right on ..now we’re talking! |
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Post by peppy on Aug 12, 2019 8:46:32 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2019 11:42:03 GMT -5
yes volume is confirmation, bid/ask is walking it up in orderly fashion   |
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Post by peppy on Aug 12, 2019 11:52:14 GMT -5
the break and hold of $1.20, a 17 cent move to $1.37, the measure.
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 12, 2019 12:02:28 GMT -5
finally some volume coming in. 317,966 real time shares in 44 mins. price needs to break $1.20 then $1.50 for the share price to start moving up. Price hit $1.20 last week. The longer the basing pattern the bigger the move...this will slice right through those numbers when they take the restraints off. Keep in mind, the competition could not allow this equity to make headlines in any significant positive fashion, if this blew up on the financial news networks then that would mean more national attention than any ads could buy....think of the attention Beyond Meats got as it was ripping higher and the short positions were getting strangled, before you went to the counter and they listed the "impossible burger" you might ask what it was, now many more people know exactly what that is....we were on verge of it two October's ago when we ripped to 7, it was imperative (for the competition) to halt it in it's footsteps...if I remember even Pete Najarian made a slight mention of options action. A true rise in sp will also be the street's validation/attraction to the company, momentum will beget momentum but this time looking back a $1/sh will be laughable. When that happens is when you will really start to see BO/partner offers/rumors, upgrades, etc. As I have recently texted to some good friends when I picked up my last lot of 10K shares before the conference call, I am either insane, a genius, or an insane genius (I'm sure Nate has been labeled similar lol). How did those $2 UTHR put shares do? Down close to 40%? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2019 12:12:31 GMT -5
yes volume is confirmation, bid/ask is walking it up in orderly fashion Would you say this is an INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2019 12:16:54 GMT -5
The longer the basing pattern the bigger the move...this will slice right through those numbers when they take the restraints off. Keep in mind, the competition could not allow this equity to make headlines in any significant positive fashion, if this blew up on the financial news networks then that would mean more national attention than any ads could buy....think of the attention Beyond Meats got as it was ripping higher and the short positions were getting strangled, before you went to the counter and they listed the "impossible burger" you might ask what it was, now many more people know exactly what that is....we were on verge of it two October's ago when we ripped to 7, it was imperative (for the competition) to halt it in it's footsteps...if I remember even Pete Najarian made a slight mention of options action. A true rise in sp will also be the street's validation/attraction to the company, momentum will beget momentum but this time looking back a $1/sh will be laughable. When that happens is when you will really start to see BO/partner offers/rumors, upgrades, etc. As I have recently texted to some good friends when I picked up my last lot of 10K shares before the conference call, I am either insane, a genius, or an insane genius (I'm sure Nate has been labeled similar lol). How did those $2 UTHR put shares do? Down close to 40%? Not sure what you're talking about...are you sure you have the right person? Please double check and confirm with something because as far as I can recall I never did any options on UTHR so pretty sure you have me mixed up with someone else, but my AUG 28 185 PUTS on the SPY's have worked out very well and I took those proceeds and bought the 10K shares pre quarterly call @ 1.14 so yes a bit early but liked what I saw in earnings announcement so was optimistic about the upcoming call .....If you look back in this thread you will see that when I put up the contrasting charts of the divergences in RSI between the SPY topping and weakening strength with the new highs and conversely MNKD with the rising lows in the RSI (I believe you called it a bear flag if I'm not mistaken) that was close to the recent top in the SPY, I've had PUTS and have traded in and out of them during this "correction" and will continue to do so for the next couple of weeks at least. GL to you sir |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2019 12:18:40 GMT -5
yes volume is confirmation, bid/ask is walking it up in orderly fashion Would you say this is an INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS? Not confirmed yet but that is what Pep was referring to with the $1.17 take out |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 12, 2019 14:35:34 GMT -5
Looks like a great time to buy because the chart has a lot of smileys !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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