|
|
Post by agedhippie on Jul 20, 2019 11:43:08 GMT -5
I think you are being wildly optimistic if you think MNKD can dictate terms! If there is another deal with Deerfield expect more of the same at around a 9.5% rate. Deerfield likes the micro-caps because they are a captive market. These are companies that don't have the option of using the bond market so they are stuck with the lenders and the lenders know it. MNKD can and will dictate terms. MNKD will shop their deal and will narrow it down to the top 3 and then tell them to sharpen their pencils and make a new proposal. MNKD is in a much better shape than 6 years ago. And the rate of 9.25% is very high. They will command a 5-6% rate with NO TOXIC TERMS. If SENS can do a new deal yesterday at 5.25% then MNKD should do much better. SENS is nothing like MNKD. It selling a well understood product (a CGM) into an uncrowded market, is run by an impressive group of people (it even has Steven Edelman on the BOD), and it has Dexcom (another loss making company) as a comparison. MNKD is selling a product that people seem to have difficulty separating from Exubera and don't understand how to use, has a BOD and leadership team that was chiefly assembled so as not to obstruct Al Mann, and is competing in a mature market against huge incumbents. Add in a 75% retention rate vs. a 30% retention rate, a management team that is actually capable of giving a revenue projection and hasn't given up like MNKD, and is in it's first rather than 5th year of US sales. No, SENS is nothing like MNKD. Anyway we will soon see what MNKD can achieve if the predictions about refinancing are correct. You think it will be 5.5%, I think it will be near 9.5%, time will tell. I think I might just have convinced myself to buy SENS. |
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on Jul 21, 2019 7:27:42 GMT -5
Aged - I have to say I really see the market much different that you.
I see the invasive CGM market very mature with some big players like Medtronic and Abbott. I don't see the greater PWD population lining up to be microchipped.
If SENS has a noninvasive device in their pipeline like Apple or can partner with Apple like Dexcom partnered with Google then that could be a game changer.
The non-invasive market will be huge but the invasive microchip version probably not so much. DXCM is still losing money on every CGM sold and Kevin Sayer seems to be packaging the company for sale.
Afrezza on the other hand is a paradigm shift in diabetic care. Al Mann's greatest mistake was tell people it was insulin. The greatest MNKD marketing blunder was calling the cartridges units. They should have just been called them small, medium and large. Once MNKD gets their head on straight on how to market afrezza it will be off to the races.
MNKD has no competition in the "pocket pancreas" market. No other treatment has the real time, on demand results afrezza can provide. One day Mike and company will wake up and stop selling afrezza as just another insulin and start marketing it as a "Super Glucose Buster". afrezza has the potential one day of doing $10T per year.
BTW - if I were picking a team and had to choose between Steve Edelman or Dave Kendall to me its a no-brainer I am picking Dave.
|
|
|
|
Post by barnstormer on Jul 21, 2019 8:32:53 GMT -5
Fortunately for MNKD sayhey we have both Steve and Dave in our corner. Don't sell Steve Edelman short. He is a T-1, actually uses Afrezza and demonstrates it at all of his TCOYD events. I have met them both, watched both present and IMHO Steve is the more dynamic speaker of the two. So I am glad we have both on our side.
|
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Jul 21, 2019 10:25:26 GMT -5
Aged - I have to say I really see the market much different that you. I see the invasive CGM market very mature with some big players like Medtronic and Abbott. I don't see the greater PWD population lining up to be microchipped. If SENS has a noninvasive device in their pipeline like Apple or can partner with Apple like Dexcom partnered with Google then that could be a game changer. The non-invasive market will be huge but the invasive microchip version probably not so much. DXCM is still losing money on every CGM sold and Kevin Sayer seems to be packaging the company for sale. Afrezza on the other hand is a paradigm shift in diabetic care. Al Mann's greatest mistake was tell people it was insulin. The greatest MNKD marketing blunder was calling the cartridges units. They should have just been called them small, medium and large. Once MNKD gets their head on straight on how to market afrezza it will be off to the races. MNKD has no competition in the "pocket pancreas" market. No other treatment has the real time, on demand results afrezza can provide. One day Mike and company will wake up and stop selling afrezza as just another insulin and start marketing it as a "Super Glucose Buster". afrezza has the potential one day of doing $10T per year. BTW - if I were picking a team and had to choose between Steve Edelman or Dave Kendall to me its a no-brainer I am picking Dave. The invasive CGM market is far from mature. At this point around 10% of intensive insulin users have a CGM. That's 90% of the market untapped. Medtronics is limited to their own pumps from what I see (I don't know anyone with a Medtronics CGM and a non-Medtronics pump). There are two paths; a tied pump/CGM like Medtronics, or an open combination that the smaller pump makers are following. The open model has the advantage that you can pick and mix pump, CGM, and software. Right now the only CGMs certified for this are Dexcom and SENS. Abbott doesn't have a CGM in the US, and Medtronics isn't going this path yet. At some point Abbott will produce a CGM, they have one in Europe, but it isn't wonderfully accurate. The Libre isn't a realtime CGM so pump integration isn't going to happen. Personally I like the Libre for some things, insertion is trivial and the app is usable, but I find it is reliably inaccurate. With me the Libre shows levels around 30 points below the real level and there is no way to calibrate or correct this which is really annoying. It works if what you want to do is see the shape of your levels throughout the day, but I would not dose off it. I am not sure which company would buy Dexcom. It's hard to see an obvious choice. I think Dexcom stays independent selling to the not Medtronics market. It doesn't need to dominate the market, it just needs a decent share and there is 90% of the market currently open. The same argument applies to SENS. I don't think Al Mann had an option about telling the world Afrezza was insulin, it is! There is no way any regulatory body would let it be labelled as anything else. I do agree that it's a handicap though because of the negative associations with insulin. I also understand why they went the unit route; Exubera didn't and they wanted to avoid that association, also people used to precisely dosing are going to be uncomfortable with the S/M/L sizing. Then there is the problem when you introduce new sizes, XS and XL? Now you are making peoples life difficult because they are going to want a range of sizes and what happens when they cannot get the combination they want? A variable metered inhaler would fix that but I am not sure how it would work (I also think it would be a big boost from people wanting, if not needing, higher precision). Between Dave and Steve I think it depends on what you are after. If what you are after is promoting the product then for profile and visibility Steve is the hands down winner. Even on this board it's seen as a much bigger deal when Steve talks about Afrezza than Dave does (actually does he ever talk to the public? I guess as a company employee that might be tricky) The non-invasive CGM market is huge, unfortunately it's also one of those things that it always coming and never arrives. |
|
|
|
Post by goyocafe on Jul 21, 2019 10:52:23 GMT -5
The non-invasive CGM market is huge, unfortunately it's also one of those things that it always coming and never arrives. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11374/perfect-sense?page=2#ixzz5uKKD0nMuI find it interesting that the non-invasive CGM market is huge, but that the non-invasive, i.e. inhalable, insulin market isn’t. There seems to be an unspoken acceptance that pumps and MDIs must penetrate the skin to one degree or another in order to deliver their payload. And because that assumption exists, building on that requirement seems acceptable and almost desirable. Look no further than the ADA funding research on a ultra-rapid acting injectable insulin (so it can join the foray of options to be used in closed loop systems). So much so is the alignment of this thinking, that the ADA will not acknowledge Afrezza as the only real ultra-rapid acting insulin, because it isn’t injected. The industry could be years away from a solution that meets this requirement and even some KOLs reluctantly admit to using Afrezza with their looping, and yet they broadly shun the adoption of Afrezza for its lack of being injected. Go figure. |
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Jul 21, 2019 11:12:02 GMT -5
What makes perfect sense to me is that one BP who recognizes Mannkind's growing pipeline potential could render all speculation about Deerfield debt, interest rates and further dilution dead. I agree it's always been hoped for but has never arrived...yet. Past history doesn't mean it won't be the next announcement. The most recent announcement regarding increased capacity and the stocktwit post saying Mannkind is now calling back past employees who had been laid off gives new reason for optimism if true. IMO, the next six weeks are not going to be boring  |
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Jul 21, 2019 11:39:33 GMT -5
What makes perfect sense is being an investor vs trader less work less drama no BS!
|
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Jul 21, 2019 15:45:50 GMT -5
The non-invasive CGM market is huge, unfortunately it's also one of those things that it always coming and never arrives. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11374/perfect-sense?page=2#ixzz5uKKD0nMuI find it interesting that the non-invasive CGM market is huge, but that the non-invasive, i.e. inhalable, insulin market isn’t. There seems to be an unspoken acceptance that pumps and MDIs must penetrate the skin to one degree or another in order to deliver their payload. And because that assumption exists, building on that requirement seems acceptable and almost desirable. Look no further than the ADA funding research on a ultra-rapid acting injectable insulin (so it can join the foray of options to be used in closed loop systems). So much so is the alignment of this thinking, that the ADA will not acknowledge Afrezza as the only real ultra-rapid acting insulin, because it isn’t injected. The industry could be years away from a solution that meets this requirement and even some KOLs reluctantly admit to using Afrezza with their looping, and yet they broadly shun the adoption of Afrezza for its lack of being injected. Go figure. Strictly speaking it's not the non-invasive CGM market, it's the non-invasive blood test market that is huge. Once you have a reliable blood test though it's just a matter of engineering to make it a cgm (keep hitting the test button and record the results). Either way this is a topic that has been extensively researched and there is still no reliable solution. Every so often there is a burst of excitement, but it goes nowhere. I think the position with injected insulin is that it is well understood and doctors are comfortable with it. Right now Afrezza has equivalence with MDI and so, absent better outcome data, doctors are sticking with what they know. Fast onset and clearance are features, the measured outcome is HbA1c, and in the distance TIR. People using Afrezza with looping usually do so as a rescue measure from what I see. It rather defeats the purpose of automatic delivery if you take your bolus insulin manually. Either way you need that injected insulin to maintain basal levels (the pump steadily drips insulin into you). The pump technology continues to improve and the Medtronics 780G pump launching next April achieves 80% TIR. This new wave of pumps with the Tandem Control-IQ and Medtronics 780G automatically handle corrections as well (that's what gets them to the 80% TIR). |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2019 22:55:14 GMT -5
Record week(s) on scripts Approval for distribution in a measurable foreign market Elimination of debt Buy back of warrants/shares probably as part of the above, Pipeline partnerships Drug delivery system validation AND, our stock price hovers at less than 5 cents above it's historic low, pre RS. Effing amazing. Where our board and leadership appear to be failing us is in convincing the marketplace and other strategic stakeholders that MNKD is worth well more than just Afrezza, even though it remains to be on linear track to have us B/E by next June, without breakout events. I'm not going anywhere, but our executives need lessons on market optics and narrative control for value creation and validation. This is just embarassing. 1.1MM in retail revenue is less than 25% needed to cover cash costs for the company. That is why the stock price will continue to decline in anticipation for the next round of dilution. MNKD is burning about $15-$18MM per Qtr with a run rate of $12MM but you're not including the add'l milestone payments and other potential revenue streams. So you're 25% is not correct. |
|
|
|
Post by matt on Jul 22, 2019 7:07:28 GMT -5
1.1MM in retail revenue is less than 25% needed to cover cash costs for the company. That is why the stock price will continue to decline in anticipation for the next round of dilution. MNKD is burning about $15-$18MM per Qtr with a run rate of $12MM but you're not including the add'l milestone payments and other potential revenue streams. So you're 25% is not correct. While mathematically you are correct, that is not a prudent way to run a business. Milestones and license deals tend to be one-time events while salaries, facility costs, and other overhead expenses are periodic costs that happen whether the company is growing rapidly, running steady, or slowly dying. In order for the stock to stabilize, there needs to be predictable, recurring revenue streams that cover the minimum periodic costs of staying in business. Not that milestones or licenses are bad, they certainly aren't, but you should be viewing those occasional revenue flows as opportunities for investment and not as money to keep the lights on. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2019 17:53:44 GMT -5
MNKD is burning about $15-$18MM per Qtr with a run rate of $12MM but you're not including the add'l milestone payments and other potential revenue streams. So you're 25% is not correct. While mathematically you are correct, that is not a prudent way to run a business. Milestones and license deals tend to be one-time events while salaries, facility costs, and other overhead expenses are periodic costs that happen whether the company is growing rapidly, running steady, or slowly dying. In order for the stock to stabilize, there needs to be predictable, recurring revenue streams that cover the minimum periodic costs of staying in business. Not that milestones or licenses are bad, they certainly aren't, but you should be viewing those occasional revenue flows as opportunities for investment and not as money to keep the lights on. Are you really going to make me say it??? MNKD is growing Afrezza revenues over 50% YOY. By this time next year they could be doing $19MM a Qtr and a year after that it could be $40MM a Qtr. Ever since the start of their internal salesforce (which they were not supposed to have) Sales have been climbing. So to answer your thesis MNKD has an upward trending revenue stream and they don't have to rely on milestones and partnership deals to survive. |
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Jul 22, 2019 18:28:32 GMT -5
What makes perfect sense is Afrezza revenues are growing milestone payments are coming in and more partnerships are pending. What dosent make sense is our current PPS. But if theres one thing you can count on is change.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2019 18:51:35 GMT -5
What makes perfect sense is Afrezza revenues are growing milestone payments are coming in and more partnerships are pending. What dosent make sense is our current PPS. But if theres one thing you can count on is change. Let me break it down for you. MNKD got a deal from Deerfield in 2013 for $160M with heavy Covenants. Basically Deerfield locked up MNKD's IP, Plant/Facilities and potential FDA Approval of Afrezza as collateral. MNKD had gone thru 2 CRLs so Deerfield was protecting themselves. Now the terms were probably amended to allow MNKD to partner with Sanofi but when that deal DIED, Deerfield slammed down hard on MNKD. Now Deerfield made a ton of profit on the deal, probably in the neighborhood of $350 Million in total which included sales milestones. So the SHORTS knew this and SHORTED MNKD from $50 a share. They alone made about $150MM. They knew as long as Deerfield held the collateral MNKD hands would be tied and couldn't do anything until the debt was paid off. Well that time is NEAR and MNKD is about to payoff Deerfield, Refinance their existing debt and get additional capital - probably $100 - $150MM. Once that happens or should I say soon before that happens the SHORTS will start to cover and the stock will rise. MNKD should be able to get a MUCH BETTER Debt Deal because they are a much stronger company. They have an approved FDA drug, Rising Revenues >50% YOY, a Salesforce (allbeit small), several new partners (UTHR is huge), 8 pipeline drugs and international sales. We should know by Aug. 31st or before. My hunch is within the next 2 weeks. MNKD wants to get rid of Deerfield and Mike is catching a lot of heat of the $1 stock price. Another scenario is MNKD could partner with a Marketing Partner for a huge Upfront Fee of $600MM (plus royalties) and pay off ALL DEBT and use that money for R&D plus sign new partners for their pipeline. UTHR has another molecule in advanced development and there's talk about EPI being back on the table. MNKD only has 75 salespeople and they need an army to hit the Type 2 Market. Especially now with all of the chatter about inhaled insulin being prescribed early in the Type 2 Diagnosis and other studies that Inhaled Insulin could prevent Dementia and Alzheimers. That would be HUGE and I'm sure Mike will work that into the negotiations. Both scenarios work for me. So a lot could happen soon..... |
|
|
|
Post by radgray68 on Jul 22, 2019 20:26:47 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a couple hundred million from somewhere. If we do, I'd like them to announce a stock buyback program. Doesn't have to be huge, but maybe $25 million or a goal of 5% of the float. Something with meat on it. Shorts will HAVE to take notice, maybe even leave forever. Long holders will finally stop bleeding, etc. JMHO I don't know if they can even do that, legally, but I'd announce it first, then make them stop me at these low prices.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2019 21:20:30 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a couple hundred million from somewhere. If we do, I'd like them to announce a stock buyback program. Doesn't have to be huge, but maybe $25 million or a goal of 5% of the float. Something with meat on it. Shorts will HAVE to take notice, maybe even leave forever. Long holders will finally stop bleeding, etc. JMHO I don't know if they can even do that, legally, but I'd announce it first, then make them stop me at these low prices. That's the last thing on their minds. They don't care about a buyback. MNKD is trying to grow the company and wasting money on a BB is not in their plans. Thats like saying you want MNKD to start a dividend. They are years away from both. |
|
