|
Post by BD on Aug 11, 2014 7:29:09 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by cybergym66 on Aug 11, 2014 7:35:18 GMT -5
8:35...has it started? I don't hear anything.
|
|
|
Post by cybergym66 on Aug 11, 2014 7:37:18 GMT -5
8:35...has it started? I don't hear anything. Hear it now!
|
|
|
Post by chauffe00 on Aug 11, 2014 8:14:14 GMT -5
virtually all the analysts on the conference call have said CONGRATS ON THE GREAT DEAL!!!
|
|
|
Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 8:34:07 GMT -5
Wait- they moved the call from 5:00 pm to 8:30 am? Seriously? I missed the whole dam thing?
|
|
|
Post by indigodaisy on Aug 11, 2014 8:37:55 GMT -5
virtually all the analysts on the conference call have said CONGRATS ON THE GREAT DEAL!!! I noticed that too! Hopefully we get some upgrades rolling in soon!
|
|
|
Post by pmikeks on Aug 11, 2014 8:48:13 GMT -5
Considering the great news, the market reaction seems to be pretty anemic so far. The second quarter miss shouldn't be that important since there isn't any revenues yet. In my opinion analysts trying to guess what mannkind will spend to get ready for launch is silly and they appearantly didn't consider the increased stock grants. Interested to hear your thoughts.
|
|
|
Post by notatool on Aug 11, 2014 8:57:16 GMT -5
Considering the great news, the market reaction seems to be pretty anemic so far. The second quarter miss shouldn't be that important since there isn't any revenues yet. In my opinion analysts trying to guess what mannkind will spend to get ready for launch is silly and they appearantly didn't consider the increased stock grants. Interested to hear your thoughts. Unfortunately I believe it is going to be a stalemate until we have a better idea of doctor acceptance. I tried to dig into that and the only report I could find costs $645 to view it. The main thing to remember is we now have true value as a going concern. Need to wait until Q2 to see how things are going. I will probably buy more later in the year as it falls out of favor again.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 8:58:51 GMT -5
I became convinced a while back that sales are what will drive this stock to the levels that most of us would like to see and I think I've shared that on a few occasions with this board. Short interest is quite powerful, but that's only one reason. Sanofi sure seems like the right fit, so that's a huge plus. The $175 million being a loan, well they did call it an "advance" so fair enough, but you see how many interpreted it last night (as an outright credit against expenses) - euphoria makes one overlook the nuances of words (or, in some cases, their clear meaning - LOL). No direct profit on manufacturing, but, of course, we get our 35% benefit in the resultant larger profit from sales, since the cogs will be less. However, I was hoping for a cost plus contract.
|
|
|
Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 9:07:33 GMT -5
For some reason investors thought the stock would double with the partnership announcement, so they are waiting for the analysts to tell them what to think.
I liked what I heard on the call. I have a $12 price target (at launch), that upside without the risks is enough for me to maintain my Long position.
I predict sales of 500M the first year and to grow to 1B by year two. And, sales to peak at 3B 1-2 years after global launch.
We are looking at the stock to at least double in the next five years (without taking into account the other Technosphere opportunities).
That's plenty upside. I don't like the rest of the market in general (overpriced) so I'm staying Long MNKD.
|
|
|
Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 9:17:55 GMT -5
Baba,
I'll agree that deal could have been more favorable to MNKD, (I'd have liked 50/50) but once Afrezza uses Sanofi insulin the margins probably looked better than the other partner opportunities.
I think Mat took this into account when crunching the numbers, and that by the time Afrezza really starts selling it will be with Sanofi insulin. We probably won't see profits the first year, but they should then grow rapidly.
|
|
|
Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 9:21:27 GMT -5
Wait- they moved the call from 5:00 pm to 8:30 am? Seriously? I missed the whole dam thing? Was the afternoon call canceled? I had a rough night and an even rougher morning. Any help would be appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 9:22:32 GMT -5
We still have the call later today.
FYI From hearing Al speak on the earlier call I'm thrilled Sanofi is the one taking Afrezza to the next level. Al is still the MAN, but we are now relying increasingly on the rest of management. Stock compensation drove up costs for the last quarter, I hope that was a one time thing. Management selling stock (for anything besides taxes) would be worry some going forward.
|
|
|
Post by savzak on Aug 11, 2014 13:29:03 GMT -5
I became convinced a while back that sales are what will drive this stock to the levels that most of us would like to see and I think I've shared that on a few occasions with this board. Short interest is quite powerful, but that's only one reason. Sanofi sure seems like the right fit, so that's a huge plus. The $175 million being a loan, well they did call it an "advance" so fair enough, but you see how many interpreted it last night (as an outright credit against expenses) - euphoria makes one overlook the nuances of words (or, in some cases, their clear meaning - LOL). No direct profit on manufacturing, but, of course, we get our 35% benefit in the resultant larger profit from sales, since the cogs will be less. However, I was hoping for a cost plus contract. Baba, I don't think the "other" interpretation of the "advance" was unwarranted given the language of the presser. The language of the release is unclear. It says, “Sanofi has agreed to advance to MannKind its share of the collaboration’s expenses up to a limit of $175 million.” I understood “its share” to be referring to Sanofi’s share. In other words, I interpreted the statement to mean that Sanofi has agreed to pay for some portion of MNKD’s upcoming expenses and agreed to just give them cash up front to pay those expenses in “advance” of the expenses actually being incurred. Obviously that was not accurate and "its share” actually referred to MNKD’s share and “advance” meant “loan”. My error resulted from the lack of clarity of the sentence rather than any euphoria or failure to recognize its clear meaning. I do agree that I failed to recognize the nuanced possibilities of alternate meanings of that sentence. In retrospect, it can clearly be read either way.
|
|
|
Post by gamblerjag on Aug 11, 2014 17:58:36 GMT -5
I really think that something big is going to happen soon. Matt was just to excited using more adjectives than necessary for the partnership.. Then there is Al's (god love him) slip up. Matt could have said we are really happy to be partnering with SNY...but no.. he said much more...... . I bet we hit 11 or 12 in the next couple of weeks.
|
|