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Post by letitride on Aug 8, 2019 13:39:18 GMT -5
Revenue is revenue im not pissing on the fact MNKD is now drawing it from multiple sources
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Post by awesomo on Aug 8, 2019 14:15:06 GMT -5
Revenue is revenue im not pissing on the fact MNKD is now drawing it from multiple sources It's not really the same, Afrezza revenue is a consistent source, revenue from partnership milestones is not. Also, TNDM is now at 63.40, MNKD is stuck at 1.10. |
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Post by jred on Aug 8, 2019 14:20:27 GMT -5
TNDM just reported 174% revenue increase last quarter. It was once a $2 stock price company as well. Maybe MC should pay them a visit to learn how to sell a product in diabetic market. Interesting TNDM is mentioned. Real brief recap of their recent history:
They are a medical device company focusing primarily on products for insulin-dependent diabetes. The key product is a new insulin pump that they promote as smaller and more technologically advanced than the existing options. After a hyped and optimistic start the adoption of the newer technology was much slower than anticipated, revenue growth was slower than projected, losses grew as a result and the stock paid the price, falling from an early high of nearly $300 to a low of $2.24 in Nov '17. In order to fund operations the company was forced to rely on dilutive measures. After the board determined a 1 for 10 reverse stock split was necessary, heading into Nov '17 TNDM had roughly 10 mm shares outstanding and a $25 mm market cap.
Fast forward to today and they have almost 59 mm shares out (yes - as a result of massive dilution since then) and a $3.7 billion market cap. BUT those same shares that were $2.24 in Nov '17 are now trading above $63.52 even while absorbing the dilution.
Couple other random facts:
- TNDM Revenues - 2013 $29mm, 2014 $50mm, 2015 $73mm, 2016 $89mm, 2017 $103mm, 2018 $184mm, 2019 projected to be $357mm
- TNDM's earnings per share are still negative as is their annual cash flow (and btw as early as Q1 2019 DXCM had negative earnings per share.)
- The CEO who lead the company through the early slow growth and ensuing difficult recapitalization was also the one that lead the surge in revenue and the turn around in stock price.
- TNDM insiders for the last year have been sellers of their common shares.
... Now not suggesting MNKD is the same as TNDM because obviously they are not. Nor am I saying MNKD is destined to follow TNDM's upswing. Just pointing out that there are examples of highly successful companies whose intial uptake was painful in similarly slow adopting industries, but based on their superior solution, they ultimately succeeded.
I am long because I believe in the advantages of Afrezza and the broader Technosphere platform. And I also believe in our current management to guide it forward. No, they have not been perfect, but imo they are working through the extremely difficult combination of inheriting a disastrous financial condition in a slow moving industry.
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Post by peppy on Aug 8, 2019 14:29:03 GMT -5
Revenue is revenue im not pissing on the fact MNKD is now drawing it from multiple sources It's not really the same, Afrezza revenue is a consistent source, revenue from partnership milestones is not. Also, TNDM is now at 63.40, MNKD is stuck at 1.10. Hard to believe it just goes to show how good Afrezza is. To be taken down like this with lies. 26% reduction in total hypo vs RAA Improved TIR and PPGE with TI vs. Aspart AND it is inhaled. Does YOUR Insurance Company, corporation care about you? Or does your health insurance company care about it's earnings per share for stock holders? Afrezza, a 26% reduction in hypoglycemia. you know, the thing that can kill you while rounding out our HbA1c. This is life on Rapid Acting Insulin subq. This low will help bring her HbA1c down. Interesting gig huh? And yet the pencil to the paper the health insurance companies make more money doing this? We know they do. Your health insurance company gets kick backs from the pharmaceutical companies. Was this in our education packet? So much as 40% in kickbacks. How do you like the subq chit the health insurance companies make money on, while you have to fret? See how much we are worth? and yet we pay the bill.  |
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Post by nylefty on Aug 8, 2019 14:42:12 GMT -5
it was nice to hear MC suggest RLS may find their way out of that redwood forest this year! more Castagna ignorance obviously has no clue where Redwood trees grow. Good grief. The reference was to the RLS website, which for a long time consisted of a picture of a redwood forest and nothing else. |
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Post by letitride on Aug 8, 2019 14:44:38 GMT -5
Revenue is revenue im not pissing on the fact MNKD is now drawing it from multiple sources It's not really the same, Afrezza revenue is a consistent source, revenue from partnership milestones is not. Also, TNDM is now at 63.40, MNKD is stuck at 1.10. I know its not the same its better. Royalties are what keep on giving long after the work is done. Its the kind of thing great investments are made of. |
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Post by awesomo on Aug 8, 2019 15:05:58 GMT -5
It's not really the same, Afrezza revenue is a consistent source, revenue from partnership milestones is not. Also, TNDM is now at 63.40, MNKD is stuck at 1.10. I know its not the same its better. Royalties are what keep on giving long after the work is done. Its the kind of thing great investments are made of. Milestone payments aren’t royalties. We haven’t gotten any royalties from UTHR. Royalties require actual product sales. |
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Post by ktim on Aug 8, 2019 15:15:14 GMT -5
TNDM just reported 174% revenue increase last quarter. It was once a $2 stock price company as well. Maybe MC should pay them a visit to learn how to sell a product in diabetic market. Interesting TNDM is mentioned. Real brief recap of their recent history:
They are a medical device company focusing primarily on products for insulin-dependent diabetes. The key product is a new insulin pump that they promote as smaller and more technologically advanced than the existing options. After a hyped and optimistic start the adoption of the newer technology was much slower than anticipated, revenue growth was slower than projected, losses grew as a result and the stock paid the price, falling from an early high of nearly $300 to a low of $2.24 in Nov '17. In order to fund operations the company was forced to rely on dilutive measures. After the board determined a 1 for 10 reverse stock split was necessary, heading into Nov '17 TNDM had roughly 10 mm shares outstanding and a $25 mm market cap.
Fast forward to today and they have almost 59 mm shares out (yes - as a result of massive dilution since then) and a $3.7 billion market cap. BUT those same shares that were $2.24 in Nov '17 are now trading above $63.52 even while absorbing the dilution.
Couple other random facts:
- TNDM Revenues - 2013 $29mm, 2014 $50mm, 2015 $73mm, 2016 $89mm, 2017 $103mm, 2018 $184mm, 2019 projected to be $357mm
- TNDM's earnings per share are still negative as is their annual cash flow (and btw as early as Q1 2019 DXCM had negative earnings per share.)
- The CEO who lead the company through the early slow growth and ensuing difficult recapitalization was also the one that lead the surge in revenue and the turn around in stock price.
- TNDM insiders for the last year have been sellers of their common shares.
... Now not suggesting MNKD is the same as TNDM because obviously they are not. Nor am I saying MNKD is destined to follow TNDM's upswing. Just pointing out that there are examples of highly successful companies whose intial uptake was painful in similarly slow adopting industries, but based on their superior solution, they ultimately succeeded.
I am long because I believe in the advantages of Afrezza and the broader Technosphere platform. And I also believe in our current management to guide it forward. No, they have not been perfect, but imo they are working through the extremely difficult combination of inheriting a disastrous financial condition in a slow moving industry.
Actually a very good comparison given it is in same market. Looking at the revenue history is informative. Before 2018, the revenue looks like slow, more or less linear growth. Then in 2018 revenue accelerates to something much that looks exponential. And the stock price bottomed and then took off beginning of 2018. Here is YoY revenue growth for TNDM. 2014 72% 2015 46% 2016 22% 2017 16% 2018 79% 2019 94% MNKD is still in a period comparable to TNDM pre 2018 where the yearly growth by percentage is dropping since the growth is basically linear rather than exponential. So perhaps this case study demonstrates that MNKD could potentially have a huge run IF the revenue crosses an inflection point and starts looking exponential. At that point they might not even need to be making a profit. Though it might be MNKD has a nice run prior to exponential growth by turning cash flow positive, or even just getting to the point where MC's assertion that no extra dilution is necessary to get there is verifiable with high degree of probability. |
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Post by Clement on Aug 8, 2019 15:20:11 GMT -5
Less than 9 weeks until we hear the decision from UTHR about the undisclosed molecule! (per MC in the Earnings Call)
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Post by wgreystone on Aug 8, 2019 15:22:23 GMT -5
TNDM just reported 174% revenue increase last quarter. It was once a $2 stock price company as well. Maybe MC should pay them a visit to learn how to sell a product in diabetic market. Interesting TNDM is mentioned. Real brief recap of their recent history:
They are a medical device company focusing primarily on products for insulin-dependent diabetes. The key product is a new insulin pump that they promote as smaller and more technologically advanced than the existing options. After a hyped and optimistic start the adoption of the newer technology was much slower than anticipated, revenue growth was slower than projected, losses grew as a result and the stock paid the price, falling from an early high of nearly $300 to a low of $2.24 in Nov '17. In order to fund operations the company was forced to rely on dilutive measures. After the board determined a 1 for 10 reverse stock split was necessary, heading into Nov '17 TNDM had roughly 10 mm shares outstanding and a $25 mm market cap.
Fast forward to today and they have almost 59 mm shares out (yes - as a result of massive dilution since then) and a $3.7 billion market cap. BUT those same shares that were $2.24 in Nov '17 are now trading above $63.52 even while absorbing the dilution.
Couple other random facts:
- TNDM Revenues - 2013 $29mm, 2014 $50mm, 2015 $73mm, 2016 $89mm, 2017 $103mm, 2018 $184mm, 2019 projected to be $357mm
- TNDM's earnings per share are still negative as is their annual cash flow (and btw as early as Q1 2019 DXCM had negative earnings per share.)
- The CEO who lead the company through the early slow growth and ensuing difficult recapitalization was also the one that lead the surge in revenue and the turn around in stock price.
- TNDM insiders for the last year have been sellers of their common shares.
... Now not suggesting MNKD is the same as TNDM because obviously they are not. Nor am I saying MNKD is destined to follow TNDM's upswing. Just pointing out that there are examples of highly successful companies whose intial uptake was painful in similarly slow adopting industries, but based on their superior solution, they ultimately succeeded.
I am long because I believe in the advantages of Afrezza and the broader Technosphere platform. And I also believe in our current management to guide it forward. No, they have not been perfect, but imo they are working through the extremely difficult combination of inheriting a disastrous financial condition in a slow moving industry.
It is definitely a good turn-around story. The question is if MC will find the solution to turn around Afrezza sales. So far, I couldnt find the clue from the CC. What I heard from the CC was: hiring 25 additional sales, billboard ads, and looking out for the next 5 years. I think we need a little urgency here. In 5 years, a gene based immu-regulation drug could already be in clinical, which could cure T1D patients. |
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Post by Clement on Aug 8, 2019 15:24:24 GMT -5
That would be great!
1) There would be a cure for diabetes! Yeah!
2) By then, we will have multiple royalty streams in place and will be a $10 billion company!
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Post by ktim on Aug 8, 2019 15:54:57 GMT -5
Less than 9 weeks until we hear the decision from UTHR about the undisclosed molecule! (per MC in the Earnings Call) What probability of a yes occurring is already baked into expectations? Personally I'm assuming, based on MC's assertion of no further dilution before profitability, that a yes is likely baked into his expectations... and thus mine... and thus thus likely most people's... and thus hence somewhat already accounted for in share price. I'm certain of that with 50% probability. |
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Post by winner on Aug 8, 2019 15:57:06 GMT -5
Worth repeating. Nothing will change for a long time, unless we get a Block buster news release. Same old. same old.
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Post by Clement on Aug 8, 2019 15:59:34 GMT -5
Yay! $15 million soon and another 15 later! Very cool!
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Post by longliner on Aug 8, 2019 16:09:26 GMT -5
Revenue is revenue im not pissing on the fact MNKD is now drawing it from multiple sources It's not really the same, Afrezza revenue is a consistent source, revenue from partnership milestones is not. Also, TNDM is now at 63.40, MNKD is stuck at 1.10. Milestone + low single digit royalties MAY very well become a consistent source of revenue if Mike and Martine are to be believed. |
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