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Post by Clement on Aug 8, 2019 14:12:26 GMT -5
In the Earnings Call, Mike said that in Q3 Mannkind would "ship first commercial supply to Brazil". I am assuming (?) that revenue for the order would count in Q3 with payment assured (by Letter of Credit).
Would this shipment be a 6 month or 12 month supply for the whole country?
How much net revenue do you think for this order? $500,000? $1,000,000? $2,000,000?
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Post by pat on Aug 8, 2019 14:34:43 GMT -5
I must admit I can’t wait to see how the Royal “They” spin the first Brazil delivery. They are very clever. But that’s going to be a hard one to spin. It’ll have to be something about selling price not covering costs/giving it away/blah blah.
I can only imagine some of these aholes are sitting at terminals in the City writing all this cr@p all day long. But at some point they’re going to have to “buy back what isn’t there-in” as Nate puts it.
Lol.
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Post by Clement on Aug 8, 2019 15:00:10 GMT -5
Suppose for a 12 month supply:
200 prescriptions per week avg x 52 weeks x $400 per script = $4,160,000
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Post by ktim on Aug 8, 2019 15:43:30 GMT -5
Why would they purchase 12 month's worth of a drug that requires costly environmental control and has an expiration date? I think the cost of airfreight on more "as needed" or "just in time" bases would be better financially and logistically for BIOMM. They'd probably just estimate the worst case time to clear customs and add a bit of buffer. Obviously it doesn't start off at 200 scripts per week. I'd expect the first shipment to be pretty small... maybe a quarters worth. In the US the average per week for the first quarter of sales was 171 scripts. Brazil's population is 64% of the US, so using that factor yields 109 per week. Using the above guess of $400 per script for lack of any better insight we get 13 x 109 x $400 = $566,800. That's a lot of guess work, but at least mildly educated guessing.
Will be interesting how/when the recognize the revenue. Will they consider their experience in the US allows them to justify recognition on shipment or would they need to start the way they first handled Afrezza revenue recognition in US which was delayed until at least made it to retail pharmacy (or perhaps it was retail sale, I've forgotten).
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paul
Researcher
Posts: 134
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Post by paul on Aug 8, 2019 15:53:43 GMT -5
You might be able to derive something from this press release about Biomm's secondary back in December -- www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181205005673/en/Biom%E2%80%99up-Launches-Private-Placement-Financing-Minimum-%E2%82%AC7"The Company however considers the net proceeds of the Offer will be sufficient to meet its obligations and operating cash flow needs during the twelve months." The offering was for about 9 million dollars. They had about 6 million dollars in October and appear to be spending about 1.25 million dollars a month. By now a reasonable guess would be that they are down to about 2 million in cash. That probably puts a cap on how much afrezza they can order unless Mannkind extends them credit. |
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 8, 2019 16:06:44 GMT -5
Zero in 3rd quarter. Per Matt the Brazilians have not fixed the price for Afrezza in their health system. Once a price has been announced that the government is willing to pay, then you will see a shipment.
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Post by pat on Aug 8, 2019 16:19:15 GMT -5
And all the cast of characters chimes in.
Lol
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Post by ktim on Aug 8, 2019 16:42:26 GMT -5
And all the cast of characters chimes in. Lol Don't be the grumpy old men heckling in the balcony (muppets reference). We'd appreciate hearing your opinion on the topic of the thread. Go ahead, it's merely speculation. Have at it... contribute to the discussion. I'm assuming by your tone you disagree with someone. You're allowed to actually express that. The more reason provided the better. |
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Post by pat on Aug 8, 2019 16:50:13 GMT -5
I express my opinion by continuing to buy shares.
How do you have so much time to post here?
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Post by theshiv on Aug 8, 2019 17:07:21 GMT -5
I express my opinion by continuing to buy shares. How do you have so much time to post here? It seems easier to wait for the official announcement regarding Brazil, but I acknowledge speculate is what we do here. Mike C clearly laid out the game plan yesterday. It is a bit tiresome to see a dark cloud hung over every topic. Brazil could be a big surprise or not. Let's just wait for the announcement. There is an ongoing faction reminding us 24/7 how bad this company is. They spin the negative in every topic. |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 9, 2019 7:10:56 GMT -5
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Post by Thundersnow on Aug 9, 2019 8:17:11 GMT -5
I express my opinion by continuing to buy shares. How do you have so much time to post here? It seems easier to wait for the official announcement regarding Brazil, but I acknowledge speculate is what we do here. Mike C clearly laid out the game plan yesterday. It is a bit tiresome to see a dark cloud hung over every topic. Brazil could be a big surprise or not. Let's just wait for the announcement. There is an ongoing faction reminding us 24/7 how bad this company is. They spin the negative in every topic. We will not know the dollar amount until earnings. Mike will issue a press release on the order or shipment but dollar figures will not be published. |
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paul
Researcher
Posts: 134
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Post by paul on Aug 9, 2019 9:21:17 GMT -5
Reading the article provided, my impression is that their system is very similar to our own. In particular, like us, Brazilian drug sales depend on distributors: "Distributors of pharmaceuticals must comply with the relevant regulations (Good Distribution Practices), more specifically ANVISA's Resolution No. 39/2013, amended by ANVISA's Resolution No. 217/2018, and hold the appropriate licences. Such distributors must obtain: A licence to operate.
An authorisation to operate.
A special authorisation for medicines under special control, if necessary. It is necessary to pay a fee to obtain these licences and to present a certificate of the technical responsibility of the responsible pharmacist. It is also necessary to undergo an inspection carried out by the local health authority. These distributors must obtain a document called "Certificate of Good Distribution Practices", which is issued by the National Sanitary Surveillance Agency (ANVISA) to operate legally. This certificate is a statement confirming that the distributor complies with all established good practices established, and allows the distributor to operate."
I presume the distributors have to decide how much they will stock.
Were the terms of the Biomm agreement ever released? What percentage of profits goes to Mannkind? Is Biomm obliged to promote the use of afrezza?
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 9, 2019 12:27:18 GMT -5
Was the container designated for Brazil shipped already? Unit cost to produce Afrezza is very small so having large orders like this will get that production line running ... and costs will drop even further.
After we get Brazil hooked on using Afrezza ... we can cut them off for a little while ... and return a little later and get a better price. (This is a joke !!!)
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 9, 2019 14:11:47 GMT -5
Was the container designated for Brazil shipped already? Unit cost to produce Afrezza is very small so having large orders like this will get that production line running ... and costs will drop even further. After we get Brazil hooked on using Afrezza ... we can cut them off for a little while ... and return a little later and get a better price. (This is a joke !!!) But, that's mytakeonit Funny!! But, as to the COGS, I was thinking along the same lines...the overall affect it will have on MNKD's manufacturing to market margins. |
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