|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Nov 6, 2019 17:17:10 GMT -5
 3.58M shares traded is not WS. It's manipulation. But, that's mytakeonit |
|
|
|
Post by morfu on Nov 6, 2019 18:15:32 GMT -5
3.58M shares traded is not WS. It's manipulation. But, that's mytakeonit Yeah, but to what end.. If I understand these numbers right.. 10Mil$ net loss, but 4mil$ of that a one time thing and we should have about 2mil$ higher revenue in the next quarter.. With the 12.5mil$ milestone payment we will be almost certainly green (unless there is another genius plan from management to "invest" our money), but even without, it seems to me that quarterly loss is down to about 4mil$..
if that this milestone infusion already paid the losses till the 3rd quarter of next year and longer if the revenue continues to grow.. Could we really go green next year already? Maybe I should buy some more shares as long this manipulation lasts..
|
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Nov 6, 2019 18:48:32 GMT -5
Conference calls are just a reporting of numbers, what they are doing, and where they feel we are headed. Manipulation was to cause a panic. But after 4 days ... we are still up 1.5 cents. After hours shows 3 cents up.
So, you just have to figure out where you want to be. I see MNKD as having a fabulous future with UTHR and a long, steady growth ahead. You already know my projections ... figure out yours.
But, that's mytakeonit
|
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Nov 6, 2019 18:48:49 GMT -5
3.58M shares traded is not WS. It's manipulation. But, that's mytakeonit Yeah, but to what end.. If I understand these numbers right.. 10Mil$ net loss, but 4mil$ of that a one time thing and we should have about 2mil$ higher revenue in the next quarter..
I'm not familiar with MNKD's history of one time events, but for publicly traded companies in general IMO one time events seem to occur with astonishing frequency. That is, a different one time event every quarter. |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Nov 6, 2019 20:00:58 GMT -5
I think the word Castagna used was something like "tweaking" rather than re-training but I think you're right, slug. That's exactly how Wall Street would interpret it. Take out the Brazil shipment and Q3 revenue was lower than the previous quarter.
That suggests more than simple tweaking is needed.
|
|
|
|
Post by Clement on Nov 6, 2019 20:05:22 GMT -5
Maybe it was "twerking".
|
|
|
|
Post by rfogel on Nov 6, 2019 22:05:45 GMT -5
Can someone explain "our long-awaited Afrezza pediatric study protocol is mailed down to FDA for review, and we expect to have feedback by the end of the year"? Isn't the pediatric study already ongoing, even maybe half over? What does the FDA need to review? |
|
|
|
Post by goyocafe on Nov 6, 2019 22:14:22 GMT -5
Can someone explain "our long-awaited Afrezza pediatric study protocol is mailed down to FDA for review, and we expect to have feedback by the end of the year"? Isn't the pediatric study already ongoing, even maybe half over? What does the FDA need to review? Phase III protocol. |
|
|
|
Post by rfogel on Nov 6, 2019 22:53:07 GMT -5
Can someone explain "our long-awaited Afrezza pediatric study protocol is mailed down to FDA for review, and we expect to have feedback by the end of the year"? Isn't the pediatric study already ongoing, even maybe half over? What does the FDA need to review? Phase III protocol. Thanks, I was under the impression that they wouldn't need a phase 3 trial, that they just needed to establish dosing and safety. I also have a question about this: "The next part will be running here in a few weeks will be the human factor study. Mankind is running that based on our history of our [dreamboat] device. Our team is fully capable of doing a study. I don't expect a lot of risk." He appears to be referring to TreT. What is a "human factor study"? Why is Mannkind doing it? |
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Nov 6, 2019 23:56:11 GMT -5
Some comments from Bill:
Comments on MannKind Q3 Investor Call, Nov 6, 2019
I think it’s important for shareholders to hear different perspectives on MannKind’s Third Quarter Investor call if only for the simple reason that in listening to dozens of such calls, I’ve never heard a negative one. Management always finds something positive to say even if they have to contort themselves into unrecognizable shapes to do so. This is true even for companies that file bankruptcy soon after such a call.
I have a different perspective from what Mr. Castagna presented and I offer it to shareholders to consider. My perspective is heavily influenced by our experience at Vdex as an actual user of Afrezza. Ultimately, shareholders will decide for themselves.
After listening to the call multiple times, I’ve formulated a few overarching thoughts. I provide more comments on each below.
1. Dazzle ‘em with details. This call inundated the listener with details on programs the company has initiated, research in support of various management initiatives, and metrics showing fantastic progress. To the less informed, It all felt very good. It supported the opening comment of Mr. Castagna that the company has been “totally transformed over the past 24 months.”
2. We are really good managers. The company demonstrated that they have been responsible stewards of our investment by continuing to restrain spending, focusing on growing sales, securing financing for the company and developing great products/ideas for the future.
3. Now you’re gonna see some real results. The point was made that management has put in place the right strategy after intense study of the problems and impediments to the previous strategies, such that the future is really bright. The management is “very excited” about the coming year.
I run the risk of being called out for my negativity by challenging the themes above. To the extent that I’m interpreting from information presented, I may be wrong in some of the conclusions I draw, or the truth may be somewhere in the middle. Hopefully, shareholders find a different perspective useful.
Dazzle ‘Em With Details
It’s hard to know on what to focus with so much detail. That may be intentional. I find that detail is often used to convey a sense of competence and control where bottom-line results are lacking. Here, the presentation was larded with detail that made it difficult to appreciate that with a sales force of about 80 people, MannKind saw Afrezza sales increase only $1.3 million over the quarter. Think about it, sales grew from $4.4 million in Q2 to $5.7 million in Q3. You can’t count the $700,000 to Brazil since the sales force didn’t generate that. But, keep in mind that most of the sales in Q2 should have been carried into Q3 if retention is decent. So, the sales force grew sales about $100,000 per week (12-week quarter) or about $1250 per week, per sales rep. Sorry to say, but that’s pathetic. The sales reps are paid way more than that.
There was no mention of the actual retention rate which continues to be terrible. Castagna did mention as part of his comments about “insights” they gained from speaking to providers, that the company “did hear that 30%-40% may drop off for one reason or another.” This is misleading. Even the most inexperienced analyst studying this situation would quickly conclude that the drop rate is much higher than 30% - 40%. Castagna was careful to attribute this comment to the providers, not MNKD management.
Further, Castagna mentioned onboarding problems that would address the drop rate. Specifically, he mentioned better dealing with the issue of cough would help, as if this is a significant factor. I can say with complete confidence that cough is not an issue with Vdex patients. We learned long ago how to deal with it. Frankly, it’s naïve and stunning to hear this cited as a reason for patients dropping, and from the CEO no less.
We Are Really Good Managers
The United Therapeutics progress was good and drove a nice increase in revenue, but what about Afrezza…? The bigger pipeline with the new compounds to be investigated is interesting, but what about Afrezza…? The recapitalization of the company is positive, but what about Afrezza…? You get the point. There are some clearly positive things going on, but with respect to the flagship product, management failed.
Put aside the huge cost of the sales force to drive the Afrezza sales increase of $1.3 million from Q2 to Q3. Consider that, per Mr. Binder, the increase was driven by in part by product mix (more 8u and 12u cartridges) and price increases. That means the sales force contributed considerably less to the sales increase. So, what would the company have done without it? That would be interesting to know. Good managers?
Castagna spent some time extolling the virtues of the Blue Hale device. I could not disagree with him more. What the Blue Hale system offers may be interesting and cool, but it will have little positive impact on retention. It is a solution in search of a problem. It is technology for technology’s sake rather than for patients. When one understands the problems with Afrezza adoption and retention, one sees that Blue Hale is little more than a distraction. I view this as management’s most recent shiny object. A good manager should be focused on other things.
Now You’re Gonna See Some Real Results
Where and when have we heard this before? Go back and listen to the conference calls in 2018 and 2017. You’ll hear this exact theme. Each time management “adjusts” its strategy it implies that now they’ve figured it out, now you’re going to see some real results. In 2016, this was a contract sales force. In 2017, this was a dedicated sales force. In 2018, this was a dedicated, but highly trained, sales force. In 2019, this was a sales force supported by clever DTC advertising. Oops. In 2020 this will be a dedicated, retrained sales force supported by more scientific studies and Blue Hale. I say Hale no.
This is kind of like the kid who cried wolf. Are we to believe them now?
Conclusion
I believe management is lost with respect to Afrezza. The Q3 results bear this out. If one were to strip down the sales numbers, one would probably find that there were fewer users of Afrezza in Q3 versus Q2. I can’t prove that, but I have a strong sense it is the case. There’s no shame in that.
Afrezza is a different, game-changing product. If it were easy to sell Sanofi wouldn’t have given up. The real problem here is the unwillingness of management to admit that it doesn’t know what to do, along with the spin that conveys a level of competence when it is actually missing. Ego has killed bigger companies than MNKD.
Bill McCullough
|
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Nov 7, 2019 0:31:52 GMT -5
Some comments from Bill: Comments on MannKind Q3 Investor Call, Nov 6, 2019 I think it’s important for shareholders to hear different perspectives on MannKind’s Third Quarter Investor call if only for the simple reason that in listening to dozens of such calls, I’ve never heard a negative one. Management always finds something positive to say even if they have to contort themselves into unrecognizable shapes to do so. This is true even for companies that file bankruptcy soon after such a call. I have a different perspective from what Mr. Castagna presented and I offer it to shareholders to consider. My perspective is heavily influenced by our experience at Vdex as an actual user of Afrezza. Ultimately, shareholders will decide for themselves. After listening to the call multiple times, I’ve formulated a few overarching thoughts. I provide more comments on each below. 1. Dazzle ‘em with details. This call inundated the listener with details on programs the company has initiated, research in support of various management initiatives, and metrics showing fantastic progress. To the less informed, It all felt very good. It supported the opening comment of Mr. Castagna that the company has been “totally transformed over the past 24 months.” 2. We are really good managers. The company demonstrated that they have been responsible stewards of our investment by continuing to restrain spending, focusing on growing sales, securing financing for the company and developing great products/ideas for the future. 3. Now you’re gonna see some real results. The point was made that management has put in place the right strategy after intense study of the problems and impediments to the previous strategies, such that the future is really bright. The management is “very excited” about the coming year. I run the risk of being called out for my negativity by challenging the themes above. To the extent that I’m interpreting from information presented, I may be wrong in some of the conclusions I draw, or the truth may be somewhere in the middle. Hopefully, shareholders find a different perspective useful. Dazzle ‘Em With Details It’s hard to know on what to focus with so much detail. That may be intentional. I find that detail is often used to convey a sense of competence and control where bottom-line results are lacking. Here, the presentation was larded with detail that made it difficult to appreciate that with a sales force of about 80 people, MannKind saw Afrezza sales increase only $1.3 million over the quarter. Think about it, sales grew from $4.4 million in Q2 to $5.7 million in Q3. You can’t count the $700,000 to Brazil since the sales force didn’t generate that. But, keep in mind that most of the sales in Q2 should have been carried into Q3 if retention is decent. So, the sales force grew sales about $100,000 per week (12-week quarter) or about $1250 per week, per sales rep. Sorry to say, but that’s pathetic. The sales reps are paid way more than that. There was no mention of the actual retention rate which continues to be terrible. Castagna did mention as part of his comments about “insights” they gained from speaking to providers, that the company “did hear that 30%-40% may drop off for one reason or another.” This is misleading. Even the most inexperienced analyst studying this situation would quickly conclude that the drop rate is much higher than 30% - 40%. Castagna was careful to attribute this comment to the providers, not MNKD management. Further, Castagna mentioned onboarding problems that would address the drop rate. Specifically, he mentioned better dealing with the issue of cough would help, as if this is a significant factor. I can say with complete confidence that cough is not an issue with Vdex patients. We learned long ago how to deal with it. Frankly, it’s naïve and stunning to hear this cited as a reason for patients dropping, and from the CEO no less. We Are Really Good Managers The United Therapeutics progress was good and drove a nice increase in revenue, but what about Afrezza…? The bigger pipeline with the new compounds to be investigated is interesting, but what about Afrezza…? The recapitalization of the company is positive, but what about Afrezza…? You get the point. There are some clearly positive things going on, but with respect to the flagship product, management failed. Put aside the huge cost of the sales force to drive the Afrezza sales increase of $1.3 million from Q2 to Q3. Consider that, per Mr. Binder, the increase was driven by in part by product mix (more 8u and 12u cartridges) and price increases. That means the sales force contributed considerably less to the sales increase. So, what would the company have done without it? That would be interesting to know. Good managers? Castagna spent some time extolling the virtues of the Blue Hale device. I could not disagree with him more. What the Blue Hale system offers may be interesting and cool, but it will have little positive impact on retention. It is a solution in search of a problem. It is technology for technology’s sake rather than for patients. When one understands the problems with Afrezza adoption and retention, one sees that Blue Hale is little more than a distraction. I view this as management’s most recent shiny object. A good manager should be focused on other things. Now You’re Gonna See Some Real Results Where and when have we heard this before? Go back and listen to the conference calls in 2018 and 2017. You’ll hear this exact theme. Each time management “adjusts” its strategy it implies that now they’ve figured it out, now you’re going to see some real results. In 2016, this was a contract sales force. In 2017, this was a dedicated sales force. In 2018, this was a dedicated, but highly trained, sales force. In 2019, this was a sales force supported by clever DTC advertising. Oops. In 2020 this will be a dedicated, retrained sales force supported by more scientific studies and Blue Hale. I say Hale no. This is kind of like the kid who cried wolf. Are we to believe them now? Conclusion I believe management is lost with respect to Afrezza. The Q3 results bear this out. If one were to strip down the sales numbers, one would probably find that there were fewer users of Afrezza in Q3 versus Q2. I can’t prove that, but I have a strong sense it is the case. There’s no shame in that. Afrezza is a different, game-changing product. If it were easy to sell Sanofi wouldn’t have given up. The real problem here is the unwillingness of management to admit that it doesn’t know what to do, along with the spin that conveys a level of competence when it is actually missing. Ego has killed bigger companies than MNKD. Bill McCullough Dilly, Dilly! Thanks for sharing Sports - The real question is what will be done about the situation and when. I have zero confidence in the BOD. My fingers continue to be crossed. The UTHR deal is about the only thing that gives me hope going forward. |
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Nov 7, 2019 0:59:57 GMT -5
And these questions come from Bill? The crystal clear guy who discloses details? Who doesn't want anything for all his good work ... except for special pricing and distributor rates.
sports ... stay away from this guy or you will also get brain damage.
But, that's mytakeonit
|
|
|
|
Post by golfeveryday on Nov 7, 2019 8:27:00 GMT -5
Some comments from Bill: Comments on MannKind Q3 Investor Call, Nov 6, 2019 I think it’s important for shareholders to hear different perspectives on MannKind’s Third Quarter Investor call if only for the simple reason that in listening to dozens of such calls, I’ve never heard a negative one. Management always finds something positive to say even if they have to contort themselves into unrecognizable shapes to do so. This is true even for companies that file bankruptcy soon after such a call. I have a different perspective from what Mr. Castagna presented and I offer it to shareholders to consider. My perspective is heavily influenced by our experience at Vdex as an actual user of Afrezza. Ultimately, shareholders will decide for themselves. After listening to the call multiple times, I’ve formulated a few overarching thoughts. I provide more comments on each below. 1. Dazzle ‘em with details. This call inundated the listener with details on programs the company has initiated, research in support of various management initiatives, and metrics showing fantastic progress. To the less informed, It all felt very good. It supported the opening comment of Mr. Castagna that the company has been “totally transformed over the past 24 months.” 2. We are really good managers. The company demonstrated that they have been responsible stewards of our investment by continuing to restrain spending, focusing on growing sales, securing financing for the company and developing great products/ideas for the future. 3. Now you’re gonna see some real results. The point was made that management has put in place the right strategy after intense study of the problems and impediments to the previous strategies, such that the future is really bright. The management is “very excited” about the coming year. I run the risk of being called out for my negativity by challenging the themes above. To the extent that I’m interpreting from information presented, I may be wrong in some of the conclusions I draw, or the truth may be somewhere in the middle. Hopefully, shareholders find a different perspective useful. Dazzle ‘Em With Details It’s hard to know on what to focus with so much detail. That may be intentional. I find that detail is often used to convey a sense of competence and control where bottom-line results are lacking. Here, the presentation was larded with detail that made it difficult to appreciate that with a sales force of about 80 people, MannKind saw Afrezza sales increase only $1.3 million over the quarter. Think about it, sales grew from $4.4 million in Q2 to $5.7 million in Q3. You can’t count the $700,000 to Brazil since the sales force didn’t generate that. But, keep in mind that most of the sales in Q2 should have been carried into Q3 if retention is decent. So, the sales force grew sales about $100,000 per week (12-week quarter) or about $1250 per week, per sales rep. Sorry to say, but that’s pathetic. The sales reps are paid way more than that. There was no mention of the actual retention rate which continues to be terrible. Castagna did mention as part of his comments about “insights” they gained from speaking to providers, that the company “did hear that 30%-40% may drop off for one reason or another.” This is misleading. Even the most inexperienced analyst studying this situation would quickly conclude that the drop rate is much higher than 30% - 40%. Castagna was careful to attribute this comment to the providers, not MNKD management. Further, Castagna mentioned onboarding problems that would address the drop rate. Specifically, he mentioned better dealing with the issue of cough would help, as if this is a significant factor. I can say with complete confidence that cough is not an issue with Vdex patients. We learned long ago how to deal with it. Frankly, it’s naïve and stunning to hear this cited as a reason for patients dropping, and from the CEO no less. We Are Really Good Managers The United Therapeutics progress was good and drove a nice increase in revenue, but what about Afrezza…? The bigger pipeline with the new compounds to be investigated is interesting, but what about Afrezza…? The recapitalization of the company is positive, but what about Afrezza…? You get the point. There are some clearly positive things going on, but with respect to the flagship product, management failed. Put aside the huge cost of the sales force to drive the Afrezza sales increase of $1.3 million from Q2 to Q3. Consider that, per Mr. Binder, the increase was driven by in part by product mix (more 8u and 12u cartridges) and price increases. That means the sales force contributed considerably less to the sales increase. So, what would the company have done without it? That would be interesting to know. Good managers? Castagna spent some time extolling the virtues of the Blue Hale device. I could not disagree with him more. What the Blue Hale system offers may be interesting and cool, but it will have little positive impact on retention. It is a solution in search of a problem. It is technology for technology’s sake rather than for patients. When one understands the problems with Afrezza adoption and retention, one sees that Blue Hale is little more than a distraction. I view this as management’s most recent shiny object. A good manager should be focused on other things. Now You’re Gonna See Some Real Results Where and when have we heard this before? Go back and listen to the conference calls in 2018 and 2017. You’ll hear this exact theme. Each time management “adjusts” its strategy it implies that now they’ve figured it out, now you’re going to see some real results. In 2016, this was a contract sales force. In 2017, this was a dedicated sales force. In 2018, this was a dedicated, but highly trained, sales force. In 2019, this was a sales force supported by clever DTC advertising. Oops. In 2020 this will be a dedicated, retrained sales force supported by more scientific studies and Blue Hale. I say Hale no. This is kind of like the kid who cried wolf. Are we to believe them now? Conclusion I believe management is lost with respect to Afrezza. The Q3 results bear this out. If one were to strip down the sales numbers, one would probably find that there were fewer users of Afrezza in Q3 versus Q2. I can’t prove that, but I have a strong sense it is the case. There’s no shame in that. Afrezza is a different, game-changing product. If it were easy to sell Sanofi wouldn’t have given up. The real problem here is the unwillingness of management to admit that it doesn’t know what to do, along with the spin that conveys a level of competence when it is actually missing. Ego has killed bigger companies than MNKD. Bill McCullough Can’t argue the comments from Bill. Any other CEO would have been removed, but he was Deerfield friendly and now UTHR is coming to his rescue in my opinion. He had failed with Afrezza and he has had many opportunities to succeed. |
|
|
|
Post by morfu on Nov 7, 2019 8:40:32 GMT -5
And these questions come from Bill? The crystal clear guy who discloses details? Who doesn't want anything for all his good work ... except for special pricing and distributor rates. sports ... stay away from this guy or you will also get brain damage. But, that's mytakeonit Hmm oh citing you in agreement once more..  It seems obvious, that this guy is wrong.. well maybe not with his careful selected numbers, but with his story.. Half way into the 4th quarter, we know that Afrezza revenue is up by about 20%.. So, to answer the question hes asked several times in his short essay.. Afrezza is doing fine! (not perfect, but fine!) Thanks to the milestone payment, we will have green numbers averaged till July 2020, if sales just keep at the current level.. (It wont look that well on paper, as the milestone still counts to this "negative" year, but I predict, that the loss should be below 4mil$ in the first quarter 2020!)
Read this and weep, Bill: => With just one more milestone payment and trend in sales continuing like in the last two years, 2020 will be a green year, and 2021 should be green just based on the Afrezza sales for adults in USA And yes it is somewhat funny, that I am defending the management here, while I am also criticized them loudly to give away 20% our our shares for 40mil$ last year, it turns out I was right back then, they didnt need that money! (its actually more than 20% lost in my case as the still lasting low hare value this mad decision caused cost me some options)
|
|
|
|
Post by mcbone on Nov 7, 2019 8:48:46 GMT -5
And these questions come from Bill? The crystal clear guy who discloses details? Who doesn't want anything for all his good work ... except for special pricing and distributor rates. sports ... stay away from this guy or you will also get brain damage. But, that's mytakeonit Hmm oh citing you in agreement once more.. It seems obvious, that this guy is wrong.. well maybe not with his careful selected numbers, but with his story.. Half way into the 4th quarter, we know that Afrezza revenue is up by about 20%.. So, to answer the question hes asked several times in his short essay.. Afrezza is doing fine! (not perfect, but fine!) Thanks to the milestone payment, we will have green numbers averaged till July 2020, if sales just keep at the current level.. (It wont look that well on paper, as the milestone still counts to this "negative" year, but I predict, that the loss should be below 4mil$ in the first quarter 2020!)
Read this and weep, Bill: => With just one more milestone payment and trend in sales continuing like in the last two years, 2020 will be a green year, and 2021 should be green just based on the Afrezza sales for adults in USA And yes it is somewhat funny, that I am defending the management here, while I am also criticized them loudly to give away 20% our our shares for 40mil$ last year, it turns out I was right back then, they didnt need that money! (its actually more than 20% lost in my case as the still lasting low hare value this mad decision caused cost me some options)
Yep, I believe everyone should acknowledge Castagna’s extremely valuable accomplishment of obtaining a lot more time to right the ship. The interest rate on the new loan may rise if script sales do not increase at a more robust pace. But even then, there will be no emergency lack of funding issues and no “hit articles” declaring bankruptcy is just around the corner, until at least the end of 2020. That’s a lot of time in the crazy world of biotech. I think it’s premature to be calling for MC’s ouster at this point. Let’s see what he can do in the time that he’s obtained for MNKD by the new financing that he arranged. |
|
3.58M shares traded is not WS. It's manipulation.
