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Post by daduke38 on Aug 13, 2014 13:44:30 GMT -5
For some reason I woke up Sun. night around 3AM and went online and saw the news. Saw all kinds of people celebrating on the other board . My first reaction was the opposite, I thought it was terrible for MNKD. But as I thought about it, Can this really be the whole deal? Did we really need Greenhill to get this? Heck 2 attorneys could have put this together over beers in an evening (with the MNKD attorney getting drunk faster). Then I listened to both calls. But the 2nd one was the most interesting. Matt being vague, not knowing the share count (Come on!), etc. There was no talk at all of Technosphere and we still don't know how long the agreement is for. (Or did I miss that)! Then there was Al's slip up which was really all he said. And we are giving SNY the process? ? Surely, this can't be all there is to it. I think there is another shoe(s) to drop. If you listened to Al in both conferences, he sounds like he is slipping a bit. Didn't seem his sharp, gregarious old self. Just my theory, but I think the remaining 35% of "A" along with the whole patent ownership, technoshere, etc. will be sold. Al accomplished his goal to get "A' out to the diabetic population with the best choice out there. I think he sells off and maybe does consulting at the most. The deal was too bad for there not to be a 2nd or 3rd step. At least I hope so!!!!!! I also found it interesting that on Greenhill's Recent transaction list we are still listed as pending with no $ amount. Just my hope and opinion. I hate to say it, but right now we may still be over valued.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 13, 2014 19:57:42 GMT -5
Actually a posting of GreenHill fees may give a true representation of the value of the deal to Mannkind. They must have some formula for computing percentage of value of deal as basis for payment to GH. Just a thought...
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 14, 2014 1:15:35 GMT -5
daduke, give me 35% of a very large pie, rather than 50% of a smaller pie. Up front money could have been better, I was hoping for $250 million, but what we got up fron is not all that bad when you consider what might happen with this global giant marketing Afrezza.
I also thought many of the guesses as to what the broad parameters of the deal would be were way to favorable to MNKD; I can't remember what you thought we'd get. Can you say what you think would have been a great deal for MNKD, but still be something that a giant global partner would swallow?
And as to Al not being his "gregarious self." I posted a couple of days ago, that Monday was probably an exhausting day for Al, he has probably been overworking for a guy his age, especially the last three or four weeks. And, of course, he's not exactly going to get sharper as the days go on. I agree with your assessment of his behavior and energy level, but I don't chalk that up to his being resigned to reporting a mediocre deal.
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Post by jpg on Aug 14, 2014 3:10:03 GMT -5
For some reason I woke up Sun. night around 3AM and went online and saw the news. Saw all kinds of people celebrating on the other board . My first reaction was the opposite, I thought it was terrible for MNKD. But as I thought about it, Can this really be the whole deal? Did we really need Greenhill to get this? Heck 2 attorneys could have put this together over beers in an evening (with the MNKD attorney getting drunk faster). Then I listened to both calls. But the 2nd one was the most interesting. Matt being vague, not knowing the share count (Come on!), etc. There was no talk at all of Technosphere and we still don't know how long the agreement is for. (Or did I miss that)! Then there was Al's slip up which was really all he said. And we are giving SNY the process? ? Surely, this can't be all there is to it. I think there is another shoe(s) to drop. If you listened to Al in both conferences, he sounds like he is slipping a bit. Didn't seem his sharp, gregarious old self. Just my theory, but I think the remaining 35% of "A" along with the whole patent ownership, technoshere, etc. will be sold. Al accomplished his goal to get "A' out to the diabetic population with the best choice out there. I think he sells off and maybe does consulting at the most. The deal was too bad for there not to be a 2nd or 3rd step. At least I hope so!!!!!! I also found it interesting that on Greenhill's Recent transaction list we are still listed as pending with no $ amount. Just my hope and opinion. I hate to say it, but right now we may still be over valued. Hi Daduke, I also would be curious as to what you were expecting? What better 'baby biotech' deal with a real global BP (there are few true global BP and even fewer global diabetic BPs) would you use to show this was a bad deal? To me this is a really really good deal and, as I have stated before, the deal we got was with my 2nd 'top pick' BP. As Baba said: 35% of a huge pie is better then 50% of a small one (or something like that...). JPG
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Post by daduke38 on Aug 14, 2014 6:09:35 GMT -5
Good questions! Part of my post was probably frustration. I think more of an upfront payment was expected by me. I am Happy with the pick. SNY is the best we could get and has been my call for some time. But it really comes down to the upfront payment. SNY will do very well with this and I just think the market would have been more impressed with at least a $500 million+ up front before any milestones. SNY has gotten a blockbuster, and I just think they got it too cheaply. As far as Al, it could be that he was tired. And I meant no disrespect. Part of my investment decision was based on him at the helm. I truely admire and respect all he has done in his life. With this being said, I do think maybe it's time he enjoys life. I still am not convinced that the technosphere portion won't be be sold off or partnered. Maybe that's why Greenhill has Pending and "NA" on their transaction list. And I guess as to my last point (and maybe the devil is in the details) but did we really need to have Greenhill Broker this deal? That is why I think there is a 2nd part to this. And I too would love to know what we paid Greenhill. Finally, I have not sold a share and still believe that in 12-18 months we will be rewarded. I did screw up and buy some Jan. 2015 calls and it does look like they will be worthless. I do have some 2016 and I think those will be fine!
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 14, 2014 7:05:28 GMT -5
For some reason I woke up Sun. night around 3AM and went online and saw the news. Saw all kinds of people celebrating on the other board . My first reaction was the opposite, I thought it was terrible for MNKD. But as I thought about it, Can this really be the whole deal? Did we really need Greenhill to get this? Heck 2 attorneys could have put this together over beers in an evening (with the MNKD attorney getting drunk faster). Then I listened to both calls. But the 2nd one was the most interesting. Matt being vague, not knowing the share count (Come on!), etc. There was no talk at all of Technosphere and we still don't know how long the agreement is for. (Or did I miss that)! Then there was Al's slip up which was really all he said. And we are giving SNY the process? ? Surely, this can't be all there is to it. I think there is another shoe(s) to drop. If you listened to Al in both conferences, he sounds like he is slipping a bit. Didn't seem his sharp, gregarious old self. Just my theory, but I think the remaining 35% of "A" along with the whole patent ownership, technoshere, etc. will be sold. Al accomplished his goal to get "A' out to the diabetic population with the best choice out there. I think he sells off and maybe does consulting at the most. The deal was too bad for there not to be a 2nd or 3rd step. At least I hope so!!!!!! I also found it interesting that on Greenhill's Recent transaction list we are still listed as pending with no $ amount. Just my hope and opinion. I hate to say it, but right now we may still be over valued. Hi DaDuke Thanks for your thoughtful posts. As I stated earlier, I liked the deal, love the prospects going forward, and believe there will be some additional announcements of interest before sales begin rolling in (and I do think they will). It surprises me that commentators (mostly "big box"analysts, so appropriately discounted) behave as as though Sanofi fell off a turnip truck before they showed up to do to the deal. Who imagines that a company of their reputation, size and success would not do considerable market analysis (beyond polling) making an offer of this magnitude?). Plus, they know full well how Afrezza works with their top selling basal insulin. Can physicians prescribe Afrezza in combination with other basal insulins? Of course they can, but I imagine SNY can work with MNKD to have their sales force market a "bundling"of the two and create incentives for prescribing the combination. And sadly, this is a market that is growing at pandemic scales. Next time you are in a crowd in the US, observe the percentage of the adults around you who are carrying extra pounds (it's really astonishing no matter where you look.) It is difficult to project sales, now with the percentage split, and assumptions about speed to market and approvals in other regions (all unknowns) and thus it is difficult to confidently and appropriately value the share price of Mannkind at this time. But nearly all very conservative analyses I have seen place the appropriate value (not considering Technosphere and other pipeline formulations placed on the back burner) at around $7.50. That may be market consensus (since for the time being we are stuck there) or we may simply be paused as an offshoot of the REG SHO circuit breaker rule applied a couple of days ago that halted short sales. What I am asking (finally) is why do you think the stock may now still be overvalued, with a great deal in place, cash in hand, blue skies ahead and a share price that is a third less than it was prior to the announcement when the big short thesis was that the company would never find a partner? Thanks in advance for any insights. GLTAL Chris-C Disclosure: long and accumulating P.S. Also,FWIW, I think it would be unfair to suspect that Mr. Mann may be "slipping a bit."We've all seen 30 somethings do much worse in deals and announcements but they get a pass for inexperience or partying the night before. Can it be that our expectations and concerns sometimes sensitize the interpretations of our observations?
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 14, 2014 7:06:00 GMT -5
Good questions! Part of my post was probably frustration. I think more of an upfront payment was expected by me. I am Happy with the pick. SNY is the best we could get and has been my call for some time. But it really comes down to the upfront payment. SNY will do very well with this and I just think the market would have been more impressed with at least a $500 million+ up front before any milestones. SNY has gotten a blockbuster, and I just think they got it too cheaply. As far as Al, it could be that he was tired. And I meant no disrespect. Part of my investment decision was based on him at the helm. I truely admire and respect all he has done in his life. With this being said, I do think maybe it's time he enjoys life. I still am not convinced that the technosphere portion won't be be sold off or partnered. Maybe that's why Greenhill has Pending and "NA" on their transaction list. And I guess as to my last point (and maybe the devil is in the details) but did we really need to have Greenhill Broker this deal? That is why I think there is a 2nd part to this. And I too would love to know what we paid Greenhill. Finally, I have not sold a share and still believe that in 12-18 months we will be rewarded. I did screw up and buy some Jan. 2015 calls and it does look like they will be worthless. I do have some 2016 and I think those will be fine! I also have Jan'15 Calls so I hope that there's more planned by MNKD which will help push to stock price back up. Greenhill either made their money while doing little work or there's still more announcements to come. As more details of the partnership come out and the market will get a clearer sense of what to expect in terms of marketing and sales projections. I think we might still have a chance with our Jan '15 calls. We still have 5 months and a lot can happen!
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 14, 2014 8:48:07 GMT -5
Jan 2015 is a sore sport right now in the marbles household...
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 14, 2014 8:53:58 GMT -5
Jan 2015 is a sore sport right now in the marbles household... Tell me about it!!! Looking good in July then 2 bash articles, poor Partnership follow-thru and I'm wondering what happen to my 100+% gains!!!
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Post by mannmade on Aug 14, 2014 9:07:50 GMT -5
Marbles, I deleted the repeated posting of your last post above. You may have double clicked on entry when originally posting... Thx...
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 14, 2014 9:38:28 GMT -5
Thanks man made- technical issues with the site- I figured one of you would delete the double.
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Post by daduke38 on Aug 14, 2014 11:35:54 GMT -5
Chris, I don't know how to include previous posts, but I don't think the deal was because Al is slipping. I respect him more than you know, and his legacy will be truly remarkable. I just noticed a difference in his speech from the last time. Might be nothing more than being tired and stressed. I think that with the knowledge we have right now the value may be a bit high. Hopefully today is the low.
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Post by BD on Aug 14, 2014 11:52:12 GMT -5
Duke, use the "quote" button on the post you want to include... Then enter your reply AFTER the quoted area.
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 14, 2014 12:07:48 GMT -5
Duke, use the "quote" button on the post you want to include... Then enter your reply AFTER the quoted area. Don't feel bad Duke!!! It took the IT guy 2-3 attempts to figure it out!!!
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Post by daduke38 on Aug 14, 2014 13:09:33 GMT -5
Duke, use the "quote" button on the post you want to include... Then enter your reply AFTER the quoted area. Thanks!!!!
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