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Post by jmkopp on Feb 12, 2020 11:01:46 GMT -5
I was just playing with some rough estimates. If AMGN took a 10 percent stake in MNKD it costs them 30 million. After that they could offer 1 AMGN share for 5 each of the rest of MNKD shares. It would take only about 36,000,000 shares of AMGN to do this raising their total shares to about 636,000,000 and potentially lowering AMGN's current valued stock price to about $212. Even if they didn't take a 10 percent stake it would only cost them 40,00,0000 shares of their potential 2.75 billion registered shelf shares. A drop in the bucket that I think they could sell to their shareholders. It would basically be a buy out at about $42 per share and about an 8 billion dollar deal. That would fit with Al Mann's normal past company return on investment targets. Amgen also gets NOLS, a state of the art manufacturing facility, sales of a growing innovative product and a highly coveted innovative delivery system. Not to mention the TreT deal. I think MNKD will be worth more than that in 5 years, but after 10 years of my fruitless MNKD addiction I would take it.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Feb 12, 2020 11:09:24 GMT -5
🙏
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Post by dh4mizzou on Feb 12, 2020 11:23:41 GMT -5
jmkopp,
To be honest at this point I'd take $ 21.00 per share and run.
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Post by markado on Feb 12, 2020 12:25:53 GMT -5
Can we get a very literal, "Amen," to all the above. May it be so.
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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 12, 2020 13:01:53 GMT -5
I was just playing with some rough estimates. If AMGN took a 10 percent stake in MNKD it costs them 30 million. After that they could offer 1 AMGN share for 5 each of the rest of MNKD shares. It would take only about 36,000,000 shares of AMGN to do this raising their total shares to about 636,000,000 and potentially lowering AMGN's current valued stock price to about $212. Even if they didn't take a 10 percent stake it would only cost them 40,00,0000 shares of their potential 2.75 billion registered shelf shares. A drop in the bucket that I think they could sell to their shareholders. It would basically be a buy out at about $42 per share and about an 8 billion dollar deal. That would fit with Al Mann's normal past company return on investment targets. Amgen also gets NOLS, a state of the art manufacturing facility, sales of a growing innovative product and a highly coveted innovative delivery system. Not to mention the TreT deal. I think MNKD will be worth more than that in 5 years, but after 10 years of my fruitless MNKD addiction I would take it.Receiving $42 for something currently trading at $1.47? Anyone not taking it needs to be committed to an institution. IMO. Good luck seeing that sort of offer, though. Has a buyout (say, in the last 50 years) for any company anywhere in the developed world ever been so rich? I cannot think of one.
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Post by awesomo on Feb 12, 2020 13:08:50 GMT -5
I was just playing with some rough estimates. If AMGN took a 10 percent stake in MNKD it costs them 30 million. After that they could offer 1 AMGN share for 5 each of the rest of MNKD shares. It would take only about 36,000,000 shares of AMGN to do this raising their total shares to about 636,000,000 and potentially lowering AMGN's current valued stock price to about $212. Even if they didn't take a 10 percent stake it would only cost them 40,00,0000 shares of their potential 2.75 billion registered shelf shares. A drop in the bucket that I think they could sell to their shareholders. It would basically be a buy out at about $42 per share and about an 8 billion dollar deal. That would fit with Al Mann's normal past company return on investment targets. Amgen also gets NOLS, a state of the art manufacturing facility, sales of a growing innovative product and a highly coveted innovative delivery system. Not to mention the TreT deal. I think MNKD will be worth more than that in 5 years, but after 10 years of my fruitless MNKD addiction I would take it.Receiving $42 for something currently trading at $1.47? Anyone not taking it needs to be committed to an institution. IMO. Good luck seeing that sort of offer, though. Has a buyout (say, in the last 50 years) for any company anywhere in the developed world ever been so rich? I cannot think of one. The largest premium in biopharma is Allergan acquiring Tobira for a 500% premium. Most are around 30-60%. So people here calling for 10x+, 20x+, uh no.
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 12, 2020 13:40:04 GMT -5
jmkopp, To be honest at this point I'd take $ 21.00 per share and run. Okay ... knowing that ... I will sell half my holdings at $20.50. Ha!
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Post by jmkopp on Feb 12, 2020 13:44:33 GMT -5
Receiving $42 for something currently trading at $1.47? Anyone not taking it needs to be committed to an institution. IMO. Good luck seeing that sort of offer, though. Has a buyout (say, in the last 50 years) for any company anywhere in the developed world ever been so rich? I cannot think of one. The largest premium in biopharma is Allergan acquiring Tobira for a 500% premium. Most are around 30-60%. So people here calling for 10x+, 20x+, uh no. An announced buy in of 10 percent by AMGN could break the seal on the share price along with a second molecule deal could easily push this to the 8-10 range. A little ramp up of scripts and the aforementioned scenario could be in range.
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Post by rockstarrick on Feb 12, 2020 14:44:10 GMT -5
The largest premium in biopharma is Allergan acquiring Tobira for a 500% premium. Most are around 30-60%. So people here calling for 10x+, 20x+, uh no. An announced buy in of 10 percent by AMGN could break the seal on the share price along with a second molecule deal could easily push this to the 8-10 range. A little ramp up of scripts and the aforementioned scenario could be in range. Absolutely need news to validate both Afrezza and TS, and not pump, but solidify a shareprice more representative of a game changing product and technology. If we were bought out today we would be extremely lucky to see $3/share, $2/share is more likely. This is why all this talk of AMGEN, and this Hooper is the Closer in my opinion, is ridiculous. Maybe a buy in of 10% to 20% and a little help with marketing and insurance coverage gives us a solid boost to $10, then at that point, it’s entirely up to mnkd to build the shareprice to the level where a 50% royalty gets any offers to buy the company a little closer to what they believe the company is worth. There’s tons of work to do before any offers to buy mnkd are going to make any of us happy. This is just my opinion, a record breaking royalty to buy mnkd is not going to happen, we need growth and validation before any buyout.
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 12, 2020 15:34:44 GMT -5
I love this dreamy speculation. But being realistic, if offered 1 share of AMGN for 100 shares of MNKD, most shareholders would approve such a deal. AMGN share for 50 MNKD and it's a no brainer. Some of the numbers speculated above are entertaining but not even in the realm of realistic.
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Post by ktim on Feb 12, 2020 15:49:58 GMT -5
I sort of suspect the "AMGN is buying us" meme is likely a bearish indicator. I'd need to track the history of it here, but I suspect it correlates with periods where MNKD doesn't have any likely real positive news.
Is it self delusion or attempt to delude others. I do think it was a real pump and dump when the AMGN thing started to be shouted recently by a certain person that didn't normally post here and now seems to have disappeared.
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Post by jmkopp on Feb 12, 2020 16:19:34 GMT -5
Receiving $42 for something currently trading at $1.47? Anyone not taking it needs to be committed to an institution. IMO. Good luck seeing that sort of offer, though. Has a buyout (say, in the last 50 years) for any company anywhere in the developed world ever been so rich? I cannot think of one. The largest premium in biopharma is Allergan acquiring Tobira for a 500% premium. Most are around 30-60%. So people here calling for 10x+, 20x+, uh no. I am not saying it will happen right now. It seems like right after approval when we hand 4-500 million shares and were well over $10/share our market cap was over 5 billion. The company is in much better shape and with a couple of dominoes the share price could easily reach 8-10/share or a market cap of 1.6 - 2 billion pretty easily. At that point a buyout like I suggested doesn't seem that unreasonable.
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 12, 2020 16:26:16 GMT -5
The company is obviously not in better shape now than we were immediately after approval.
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Post by letitride on Feb 12, 2020 20:32:33 GMT -5
I cant find a rational way to reply to this quest so I say Lets Go!
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Post by awesomo on Feb 12, 2020 20:37:04 GMT -5
The largest premium in biopharma is Allergan acquiring Tobira for a 500% premium. Most are around 30-60%. So people here calling for 10x+, 20x+, uh no. I am not saying it will happen right now. It seems like right after approval when we hand 4-500 million shares and were well over $10/share our market cap was over 5 billion. The company is in much better shape and with a couple of dominoes the share price could easily reach 8-10/share or a market cap of 1.6 - 2 billion pretty easily. At that point a buyout like I suggested doesn't seem that unreasonable. Biotech valuation is heavily based on speculation for companies whose drugs are in the process of FDA approval or just got approval. At the time, analysts were predicting Afrezza becoming a blockbuster drug, hence the multi-billion valuation. Fast forward 6 years, we're barely above 600 scripts a week. There is no more speculation with MannKind, it is in "prove it" stage. So far, they haven't done it.
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