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Post by brotherm1 on Jun 18, 2020 12:59:25 GMT -5
Lets not forget the warrants that might get exercised for about 11 mil. investors.mannkindcorp.com/node/16801/html"As of December 31, 2019, 7,250,000 Warrant Shares remained available for purchase by such holder until June 26, 2020 at a price of $1.60 per share." Exactly. And I figured hypothetically that with all the new shares available, MC could sell shares at the market to preserve cash. If their cash burn was $11 million a quarter, they could sell less than 30 million shares over the next twelve months (roughly 500,000 shares per week) to preserve all their cash on hand. That would still take them to only 250 million shares outstanding and 150 million shares on the shelf. As the stock price goes higher and revenues start to materialize, it begins a virtuous cycle, as opposed to the destructive death spiral we’ve all been in the past several years. Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to me there is too much risk for the warrant holder to exercise them at $1.60 and they might have a better option soon in an equity offering to obtain new ones. Also, I’m thinking selling shares each week with the ATM might not be a good idea in this very uncertain economy. Seems to me their best bet would be to do an equity offering very soon while the share price is up and before market conditions worsen |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 18, 2020 13:36:38 GMT -5
That trailing stop can actually kill you now days. With today's technology ... you can see all orders ... and if volume is fairly light ... people can trade the price down to your level ... and it is GONE.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2020 16:58:20 GMT -5
Exactly. And I figured hypothetically that with all the new shares available, MC could sell shares at the market to preserve cash. If their cash burn was $11 million a quarter, they could sell less than 30 million shares over the next twelve months (roughly 500,000 shares per week) to preserve all their cash on hand. That would still take them to only 250 million shares outstanding and 150 million shares on the shelf. As the stock price goes higher and revenues start to materialize, it begins a virtuous cycle, as opposed to the destructive death spiral we’ve all been in the past several years. Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to me there is too much risk for the warrant holder to exercise them at $1.60 and they might have a better option soon in an equity offering to obtain new ones. Also, I’m thinking selling shares each week with the ATM might not be a good idea in this very uncertain economy. Seems to me their best bet would be to do an equity offering very soon while the share price is up and before market conditions worsen I doubt the warrant holders will forgo warrants that are IN THE MONEY. I doubt they will risk not exercising them just to wait for a POSSIBLE BETTER DEAL. Also if MNKD gets the $11M plus the milestone that's $23.5M which will give them 6 months of operating expenses. They are not in a dire position to raise money. Plus if you get a PEDS Partner upfront money could be attached. Hence NO WAY for the WH to let them expire. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Jun 18, 2020 17:23:30 GMT -5
Exactly. And I figured hypothetically that with all the new shares available, MC could sell shares at the market to preserve cash. If their cash burn was $11 million a quarter, they could sell less than 30 million shares over the next twelve months (roughly 500,000 shares per week) to preserve all their cash on hand. That would still take them to only 250 million shares outstanding and 150 million shares on the shelf. As the stock price goes higher and revenues start to materialize, it begins a virtuous cycle, as opposed to the destructive death spiral we’ve all been in the past several years. Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to me there is too much risk for the warrant holder to exercise them at $1.60 and they might have a better option soon in an equity offering to obtain new ones. Also, I’m thinking selling shares each week with the ATM might not be a good idea in this very uncertain economy. Seems to me their best bet would be to do an equity offering very soon while the share price is up and before market conditions worsen At the very least, surely the warrant holder would gradually exercise as many warrants as they can so long as they can keep selling the shares into the market above the exercise price. I suspect that has already been going on. (Best case would be that they exercise them all and hold all of the shares long term, but I agree with others who've said in the past that action is unlikely as that is not the their business model.) I do expect an equity offering sometime soonish, though. |
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 19, 2020 13:07:30 GMT -5
Just thinking out loud, but it would seem to me there is too much risk for the warrant holder to exercise them at $1.60 and they might have a better option soon in an equity offering to obtain new ones. Also, I’m thinking selling shares each week with the ATM might not be a good idea in this very uncertain economy. Seems to me their best bet would be to do an equity offering very soon while the share price is up and before market conditions worsen At the very least, surely the warrant holder would gradually exercise as many warrants as they can so long as they can keep selling the shares into the market above the exercise price. I suspect that has already been going on. (Best case would be that they exercise them all and hold all of the shares long term, but I agree with others who've said in the past that action is unlikely as that is not the their business model.) I do expect an equity offering sometime soonish, though. I said this in another thread, warrant holders will sell (short) first then exercise their warrants at the last moment. They get to lock in their price with zero risk this way. If they exercise first, then sell that lock in price is subjected to market forces. Also if they sell first, the price can always go below 1.60 and the holders can cover via the open market. With about 26 million shares traded over the last 3 days, a percentage of that volume could be warrant holders selling. Good luck to you all. |
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Post by veritasfiliatemporis on Jun 19, 2020 13:35:55 GMT -5
you mean better 20 cents today that nothing tomorrow?  |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 19, 2020 18:01:53 GMT -5
I said this in another thread, warrant holders will sell (short) first then exercise their warrants at the last moment. They get to lock in their price with zero risk this way. If they exercise first, then sell that lock in price is subjected to market forces. Also if they sell first, the price can always go below 1.60 and the holders can cover via the open market. With about 26 million shares traded over the last 3 days, a percentage of that volume could be warrant holders selling. Good luck to you all. ^^^^^ This. I trade warrants and that is exactly what you do. Once you hit your target price you short the stock to lock in the gain. As I have said before arbitrage is the only time I short and that's because I know I will own the stock to settle the short. In this case if I held MNKD warrants I would short at around $1.90 and hold off exercising the warrants until the last moment. Now I am certain of a $0.30 profit regardless of what happens next, and if the price drops below $1.60 I get a bonus as I can buy at the market and not exercise the warrants. I would be a lot happier about this spike if it wasn't happening around the warrant date. As it is I am wary, this is a micro-cap and price manipulation goes with the territory. |
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Post by cjm18 on Jun 19, 2020 19:28:05 GMT -5
I said this in another thread, warrant holders will sell (short) first then exercise their warrants at the last moment. They get to lock in their price with zero risk this way. If they exercise first, then sell that lock in price is subjected to market forces. Also if they sell first, the price can always go below 1.60 and the holders can cover via the open market. With about 26 million shares traded over the last 3 days, a percentage of that volume could be warrant holders selling. Good luck to you all. ^^^^^ This. I trade warrants and that is exactly what you do. Once you hit your target price you short the stock to lock in the gain. As I have said before arbitrage is the only time I short and that's because I know I will own the stock to settle the short. In this case if I held MNKD warrants I would short at around $1.90 and hold off exercising the warrants until the last moment. Now I am certain of a $0.30 profit regardless of what happens next, and if the price drops below $1.60 I get a bonus as I can buy at the market and not exercise the warrants. I would be a lot happier about this spike if it wasn't happening around the warrant date. As it is I am wary, this is a micro-cap and price manipulation goes with the territory. When I saw mike bought shares that told me 2 things. The warrants will be exercised(manipulation) and no big time news on the horizon (no insider trading). |
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Post by alethea on Jun 19, 2020 20:04:41 GMT -5
I'll be honest about that big pump... I was up 50k.. and I was nervous.. so I set a trailing stop behind it.. I had never did that before.. and I can't remember how far behind it was trailing.. I didn't want to get stopped out either and miss a run.. but the next morning I was stopped out.. then it went back up a bit before the long slow dump.. nerve racking for sure.. but I came out of it with some profit and bought more shares.. lucky!!!! I also sold before the RS.. I stayed out for 6 months after... All in all, you have done remarkably well. Congrats! I am jealous. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Jun 21, 2020 0:34:52 GMT -5
That trailing stop can actually kill you now days. With today's technology ... you can see all orders ... and if volume is fairly light ... people can trade the price down to your level ... and it is GONE. But, that's mytakeonit I know the dangers of setting a stop .... That's why I rarely do it. That run to near 7 was straight up orchestrated with no real news behind it... In other words a "pump".. seems to happen a lot here in Mnkd land.... I'm loyal to the technology..... Not the tactics used by management. Time for them to get it done... |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 21, 2020 1:51:16 GMT -5
Okay sweedee ... but when it does run. I may be the one biting off your trailing butt.
But, that's mytakeonit
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