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Post by babaoriley on Jun 29, 2020 21:51:34 GMT -5
$4 in an exchange with average P/E of 27:1 and a sector that’s usually higher? And that’s the best you can hope for? Buh bye. Don't you tire of being wrong on this one, prc? In know you're a smart guy, so am I, but I believe you and I and several other smart guys are losers on this stock. It happens. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 29, 2020 21:55:47 GMT -5
Joey, my thinking was the same as yours up to about a year or so ago. What has changed for me is that I no longer see a large upside. I see a modest upside, maybe $4, a nice double, but it throws the risk/reward proportion into a place where I do not care to invest more, nor hold as much as I used to. I guess the shares/options that I have sold over the last year have been gobbled up by Mytakeonit.  Baba, are you soured by the dilution, or the inept CEO? Or, both? Or, something else? I do not see a change in upside potential. I just don't know that this CEO can ever even get us there ... let alone do it last year. A bushel of lemons could not sour me more on the whole thing. Things have turned out so different from what I thought. Still haven't even seriously threatened a 1000 scrips per week. Never in a million years could I have predicted that the day we got approval. Kendall has been a more recent disappointment and Mike has disappointed for a few years. Never cared for the guy personally, but I optimistically thought he may have been what the company needed, that turns out to be another wrong assessment on my part. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 30, 2020 7:20:33 GMT -5
$4 in an exchange with average P/E of 27:1 and a sector that’s usually higher? And that’s the best you can hope for? Buh bye. Don't you tire of being wrong on this one, prc? In know you're a smart guy, so am I, but I believe you and I and several other smart guys are losers on this stock. It happens. If I was done holding my investment baba, you would be right. Take COVID out of the picture and it is reasonable to assume Rx would/will continue it’s slow upward progression which is all I expect without large clinical trial data (and the results we expect) to influence prescribers to prescribe and without deep(er?) discounts to Pharmacy Branch Managers to influence them to give Afrezza higher (top?) tier placement on their formularies. Both the clinical trials and the PBM negotiations should have been done by now by Sanofi had Oliver Brandicourt not renegged on the $1B+ global marketing agreement entered into by his predecessor Chris Viehbacher. Incidentally Viehbacher, along with other Genzyme shareholders successfully sued Sanofi for renegging on $750M in milestones owed Genzyme. (Sound familiar?) Anyway, assuming Rx continues to slowly increase after the COVID pause, US sales will approach $100M in the next 3 years. This is not enough for cash flow break even. There is reason to be optimistic that TreT will be approved. UTHR estimated a market expansion worth $1B annually. Double digit royalties could bring in upwards of another $100M annually. You should expect other opportunities will arise in the form of additional TS applications and international sales of Afrezza, pediatric approval, et cetera. The basic point is it is reasonable to assume Mannkind will eventually be profitable. At or near the point of profitability Future Cash Flow (FCF) becomes clear and operating capital becomes available in larger quantities on better terms. Access to capital then expands and accelerates the TS pipeline, provides resources for clinical trials to influence prescribers, expands the salesforce and marketing budget for things like DTC, and permits discounts to PBMs improving insurance coverage, all of which increases sales, and if properly managed, profitability. Once there is profit, and a clear path to more profit, the stock price will come in line with P/E ratios appropriate to a successful BP company. $4 share price assumes about 13 cents Earnings Per Share. I personally think it is reasonable Mannkind can exceed .13 EPS (although it will take years). |
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Post by solicurance on Jun 30, 2020 8:18:15 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks?
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Post by morfu on Jun 30, 2020 8:32:50 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks? Obviously the the factor between 4$ and 0.13$ is 30!? However, I should add, that actually I am planning to NEVER sell my shares! Once they got 10ct or more earning per share and a positive outlook, why would I? Earning 6.5% on a current investment (2$ share price, 0.13ct earning) in a few years is all I need. And the fact that this number could potentially climb further with some projections up to 2$ or more is just more icing.. (Having said "planning to NEVER sell" I should add, that of course a ridiculous P/E might change my mind..)
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 30, 2020 12:25:00 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks? The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 30, 2020 12:37:53 GMT -5
And how much earnings does Inovio have  Nada, but their stock price is over $25 right now. This is the stock market people. But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by radgray68 on Jun 30, 2020 19:59:48 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks? The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. If Viagra-T can reduce wait time to say 5 minutes or less when pills take 30 minutes, how much is spontaneity worth? Sure generic pills are cheap. But, what would couples do to get the spontaneity back. Maybe all-day Cialis has taken care of that, i don't know. Thankfully it hasn't come to that......gulp(knock on wood  ).....yet. It seems like a future money maker to me. |
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Post by falconquest on Jun 30, 2020 20:08:03 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks? The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. Keep pumpin" prc, one day it might work out! |
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Post by goyocafe on Jun 30, 2020 20:25:44 GMT -5
The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. If Viagra-T can reduce wait time to say 5 minutes or less when pills take 30 minutes, how much is spontaneity worth? Sure generic pills are cheap. But, what would couples do to get the spontaneity back. Maybe all-day Cialis has taken care of that, i don't know. Thankfully it hasn't come to that......gulp(knock on wood ).....yet. It seems like a future money maker to me. Especially when you're dressed up as a toxic waste disposal expert acting out your latest fantasy and saving the last woman on earth... |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 30, 2020 22:13:15 GMT -5
The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. Keep pumpin" prc, one day it might work out! Hey, if you can’t contribute you can always be disrespectful. But I agree, one day it might work out. Will you still be here to complain then too? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 30, 2020 22:16:52 GMT -5
If Viagra-T can reduce wait time to say 5 minutes or less when pills take 30 minutes, how much is spontaneity worth? Sure generic pills are cheap. But, what would couples do to get the spontaneity back. Maybe all-day Cialis has taken care of that, i don't know. Thankfully it hasn't come to that......gulp(knock on wood ).....yet. It seems like a future money maker to me. Especially when you're dressed up as a toxic waste disposal expert acting out your latest fantasy and saving the last woman on earth... If I had 13 cents for every time that’s happened to me... We’re probably out of luck thoug because Matt says proper dosing of tadalafil on TS for PAH would be too (wait for it) hard. |
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Post by falconquest on Jul 1, 2020 16:19:42 GMT -5
Keep pumpin" prc, one day it might work out! Hey, if you can’t contribute you can always be disrespectful. But I agree, one day it might work out. Will you still be here to complain then too? Point taken. We seem to have two camps here, at least in general terms; those that are long time longs that have grown cynical as the share price has declined and witnessed nearly stagnant prescription growth and more recent longs who are still quite hopeful and like the current direction of the company. The problem the cynical long timers have is that we have seen this positive "vibe" if you will, before. It was us at one time. That is just the way it is. Whether you and other positive longs like it or not the cynical nature of some was certainly something the company earned. Quite frankly it's unfortunate because we all believe in the science and had such high expectations for the company. This is a revolutionary insulin product and yet.......we can't sell it! We fought tooth and nail to get this FDA approved only to see it fall flat on its face. So bottom line, if you want to be positive then good on ya. For me, the company has to prove it can generate enough sales to be cash flow positive before I ever invest another dime. I have always felt that if it can break even it will take off but until then, I'll stay out thank you. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 1, 2020 18:12:07 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks? The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. According to data online, as of March 2015, the overall drugs sector had an average P/E ratio of about 24.10. According to Yahoo Finance, currently (as of today) Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi, UTHR, have PEs of, respectively, about 27, 19, 26, 10. So using a PE of 30 is arguably not conservative at all. It may be a little over optimistic. Of course some BP firms have much higher PEs. But (from what I've read), those are usually atypical and more often or not viewed as bubbles. And Mnkd might hit over $100 even with negative earnings, if it only could capture the imagine of people the way, say, NVAX, did. I won't say that will never happen. Markets are crazy. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 1, 2020 21:58:32 GMT -5
Hey, if you can’t contribute you can always be disrespectful. But I agree, one day it might work out. Will you still be here to complain then too? Point taken. We seem to have two camps here, at least in general terms; those that are long time longs that have grown cynical as the share price has declined and witnessed nearly stagnant prescription growth and more recent longs who are still quite hopeful and like the current direction of the company. The problem the cynical long timers have is that we have seen this positive "vibe" if you will, before. It was us at one time. That is just the way it is. Whether you and other positive longs like it or not the cynical nature of some was certainly something the company earned. Quite frankly it's unfortunate because we all believe in the science and had such high expectations for the company. This is a revolutionary insulin product and yet.......we can't sell it! We fought tooth and nail to get this FDA approved only to see it fall flat on its face. So bottom line, if you want to be positive then good on ya. For me, the company has to prove it can generate enough sales to be cash flow positive before I ever invest another dime. I have always felt that if it can break even it will take off but until then, I'll stay out thank you. Now there is (another) post I can respect. You’ve had others too. A skeptical cynic I have no issue with, and I actually think I am one too, but I’ve got experience spending money on expensive projects and Mannkind is working with peanuts. This is why the Sanofi debacle looms so large. It was literally catastrophic. That fact that they’re still here and have given me reason to hope just amazes me. I’m not sure if I’m in the long timers camp. I’ve been invested since about a year before the FDA approval. I think 2013, but certainly no later than 2014. Is that a long timer? |
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Nada, but their stock price is over $25 right now. This is the stock market people.
).....yet. It seems like a future money maker to me. 
