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Post by xoxoxoxo on Nov 16, 2014 15:08:06 GMT -5
NPM = net profit margin. It's absurd to compare a huge company like Sanofi with MNKD with regards to profit margins.
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Post by mnkdfan on Nov 16, 2014 21:12:58 GMT -5
I did a quick valuation comparison with the Minimed sale Al made for $3.3B (in 2001) and compare the sales Minimed had in 2000 and sales now information. Based on the information at the time of Minimed purchase 5/2001: MiniMed's revenue grew from $99.5 million in 1997 to $294 million in 2000, according to Medtronic's announcement. During the same period, income rose from $6.7 million to $43.2 million, Medtronic said. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/medtronic-to-buy-minimed-for-328-billion). BTW, the insulin pumps does not look to have great margins.
The above is based on about 100,000 users per Al's CC 2/2000 (http://www.insulin-pumpers.org/mail/archive/mail-insulin-pumpers/Feb2000/msg00804.html)
Fast forward to today where in 2009 the US insulin pump market was at about $400Mil and expected to hit $843Mil by 2016. Medtronic owns about 58% of the insulin pump market and Roche comes in second at 12% with a host of other smaller players sharing the rest of the insulin pump market (http://www.mtbeurope.info/content/ft1008001.htm).
We all know that the insulin pump is not an effective solution for the mass due to it's cost. The US market is probably the only market where you can see the most growth for the insulin pump and as you can see even after 9 years later buying Minimed, current sales and projected sales is still below $1B.
My point is if it only takes 450K patients on Afrezza to reach $1B in sales and Afrezza's real market is worldwide and with an 8X market size (type II&I not just mostly type I for insulin pumps), worldwide sales for Afrezza could exceed $5B within 5 years. A buyer for MNKD must offer a minimum of $10B for valuation when compared to what medtronic paid for Minimed.
MNKDFAN
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