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Post by goyocafe on Dec 4, 2020 10:26:09 GMT -5
Last FDA approval (Afrezza) drove PPS over $10 under a completely different (crazy) capital structure.espanol FDA approval of TreT could drive PPS over $10. Under the old capital structure, that's only worth about $2. It would be reasonable to expect additional exuberance and short covering. At $50/sh, we breech similar exuberance to the last approval, but do not account for any potential short squeeze. Of course, accounting for dilution would reduce the price somewhat; however, the prospects of Afrezza and TreT plus more on the way, including the implications of a true proof-of-concept of multiple Technosphere approvals from the FDA on the market. Well, even I, would not care to speculate on that outcome... Let's just agree to disagree that $25-30/sh is somewhat reasonable exuberance for the current market up to and through initial approval. I would not be surprised to see prices peak much higher for a very short time. If so, and if possible, I will dump my shares and possibly go short to ride up and back down before reestablishing a long position. The stock price surged to $10.50 (approximately) upon approval of Afrezza. That pushed the market cap to $4 billion (approximately). A $4 billion market cap today, considering current outstanding shares, results in a share price of approximately $17.12/share, not $50/share. A $50 stock price for MNKD would value the company closer to $11.6 billion. Trying to keep the numbers real. |
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 4, 2020 11:08:02 GMT -5
Last FDA approval (Afrezza) drove PPS over $10 under a completely different (crazy) capital structure.espanol FDA approval of TreT could drive PPS over $10. Under the old capital structure, that's only worth about $2. It would be reasonable to expect additional exuberance and short covering. At $50/sh, we breech similar exuberance to the last approval, but do not account for any potential short squeeze. Of course, accounting for dilution would reduce the price somewhat; however, the prospects of Afrezza and TreT plus more on the way, including the implications of a true proof-of-concept of multiple Technosphere approvals from the FDA on the market. Well, even I, would not care to speculate on that outcome... Let's just agree to disagree that $25-30/sh is somewhat reasonable exuberance for the current market up to and through initial approval. I would not be surprised to see prices peak much higher for a very short time. If so, and if possible, I will dump my shares and possibly go short to ride up and back down before reestablishing a long position. The stock price surged to $10.50 (approximately) upon approval of Afrezza. That pushed the market cap to $4 billion (approximately). A $4 billion market cap today, considering current outstanding shares, results in a share price of approximately $17.12/share, not $50/share. A $50 stock price for MNKD would value the company closer to $11.6 billion. Trying to keep the numbers real. Apples and oranges? Afrezza sales were supposed to be 10x tret t and lower probability of fda approval. |
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Post by goyocafe on Dec 4, 2020 11:13:50 GMT -5
The stock price surged to $10.50 (approximately) upon approval of Afrezza. That pushed the market cap to $4 billion (approximately). A $4 billion market cap today, considering current outstanding shares, results in a share price of approximately $17.12/share, not $50/share. A $50 stock price for MNKD would value the company closer to $11.6 billion. Trying to keep the numbers real. Apples and oranges? Afrezza sales were supposed to be 10x tret t and lower probability of fda approval. Huh? All I did was point out more realistic numbers for share price and market cap. I had no commentary on the value of TreT or Afrezza. If you want to speculate that TreT will take MNKD to $50/share or $11.6 billion market cap, feel free. |
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 4, 2020 11:57:00 GMT -5
Apples and oranges? Afrezza sales were supposed to be 10x tret t and lower probability of fda approval. Huh? All I did was point out more realistic numbers for share price and market cap. I had no commentary on the value of TreT or Afrezza. If you want to speculate that TreT will take MNKD to $50/share or $11.6 billion market cap, feel free. Whoops. My reply should have been to earlier posts about what the share price did upon fda approval. |
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Post by morfu on Dec 4, 2020 13:30:45 GMT -5
The stock price surged to $10.50 (approximately) upon approval of Afrezza. That pushed the market cap to $4 billion (approximately). A $4 billion market cap today, considering current outstanding shares, results in a share price of approximately $17.12/share, not $50/share. A $50 stock price for MNKD would value the company closer to $11.6 billion. Trying to keep the numbers real. Apples and oranges? Afrezza sales were supposed to be 10x tret t and lower probability of fda approval. So in "modern numbers" the approval back then lifted the share price by about 15$ in that spike.. can we expect the spike simply to be 10x this time? However, just like then this approval mean a significant progress for this company towards green numbers.. survival first, long term gain later  |
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 4, 2020 15:23:04 GMT -5
4-8 pps...April through November IMO ..then people will short the launch and wait for proof of revenue.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Dec 4, 2020 17:45:15 GMT -5
Yes. Goyou Cafe, nice summary. When Afrezza was approved initially, there were more than 400 Million outstanding shares (so $10 a share was a $4 Billion market cap). Of course, the reverse split shrank the float initially, however, there have been numerous occasions where shares have been issued since the reverse split to keep things afloat. We are now back to approx 233 Million Shares outstanding according to Yahoo Finance Statistics (I'm sure that is before you count all the Employee and Board incentive programs). However, assume no more shares are issued to profitability (which you can't :-)), market cap/value looks like this:
$2.95 share $716M (today) (today, revenue still under $100 Million and not profitable yet)
$10 share $2.3 Billion
$20 share $4.6 Billion
$30 share $6.9 Billion
$40 share $9.2 Billion
$50 share $11.5 Billion
$60 share $13.8 Billion
$70 share $16.1 Billion
I guess I try to think about it this way. If we can get on a revenue growth trajectory with the technosphere pipeline, what should a realistic share price be when MNKD reaches $1Billion in revenue (let's say $300 to $400 Million in profit)? And, if revenue growth looks like it is accelerating from there as multiple products begin to distribute......
Is is realistic to think at $1 Billion in revenue with growth prospects in tact from there could garner somewhere between the $20 and $30 pps mark (in the valuation scale listed above)?
An d to that end, at the pace of things, how long (how many years to get to $1 Billion in revenue). Can Afrezza get to $200 Million by 2022 and would royalties and mfg create $100 Million in Trepostinil (sp?) by sometime in 2022 (i.e. $300 Million in revenue between those two)? Maybe another molecule or two rolling out by 2024 and getting to $600 or $700 Million by then? Maybe $1 Billion and $25 pps by 2026/2027? More than anything, this post is just fun speculation. Some white knight could always ride in and be thinking long term value of Technosphere and buy Technosphere for $10 Billion (about $42 bucks a share) sometime in the not too distant future. Didn't Al Mann sell his first company to Medtronic for $8 Billion?
Would welcome any comments, clarifications, and prognostications. Friday night with a glass of wine in hand just imagining what could be. Cheers.
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Post by longliner on Dec 4, 2020 18:44:10 GMT -5
Yes. Goyou Cafe, nice summary. When Afrezza was approved initially, there were more than 400 Million outstanding shares (so $10 a share was a $4 Billion market cap). Of course, the reverse split shrank the float initially, however, there have been numerous occasions where shares have been issued since the reverse split to keep things afloat. We are now back to approx 233 Million Shares outstanding according to Yahoo Finance Statistics (I'm sure that is before you count all the Employee and Board incentive programs). However, assume no more shares are issued to profitability (which you can't :-)), market cap/value looks like this: $2.95 share $716M (today) (today, revenue still under $100 Million and not profitable yet) $10 share $2.3 Billion $20 share $4.6 Billion $30 share $6.9 Billion $40 share $9.2 Billion $50 share $11.5 Billion $60 share $13.8 Billion $70 share $16.1 Billion I guess I try to think about it this way. If we can get on a revenue growth trajectory with the technosphere pipeline, what should a realistic share price be when MNKD reaches $1Billion in revenue (let's say $300 to $400 Million in profit)? And, if revenue growth looks like it is accelerating from there as multiple products begin to distribute...... Is is realistic to think at $1 Billion in revenue with growth prospects in tact from there could garner somewhere between the $20 and $30 pps mark (in the valuation scale listed above)? An d to that end, at the pace of things, how long (how many years to get to $1 Billion in revenue). Can Afrezza get to $200 Million by 2022 and would royalties and mfg create $100 Million in Trepostinil (sp?) by sometime in 2022 (i.e. $300 Million in revenue between those two)? Maybe another molecule or two rolling out by 2024 and getting to $600 or $700 Million by then? Maybe $1 Billion and $25 pps by 2026/2027? More than anything, this post is just fun speculation. Some white knight could always ride in and be thinking long term value of Technosphere and buy Technosphere for $10 Billion (about $42 bucks a share) sometime in the not too distant future. Didn't Al Mann sell his first company to Medtronic for $8 Billion? Would welcome any comments, clarifications, and prognostications. Friday night with a glass of wine in hand just imagining what could be. Cheers. I like your post, especially the white knight reference. I've had my shares priced at the white knight event for the last couple years (41.95). Hope springs eternal. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 4, 2020 19:05:56 GMT -5
Valuation of 2B+ is a fair value for the company IMO, based on it's investment in Afrezza assets alone. MC clearly communicates on every CC why they are continuing to invest in Afrezza, the underlying patents protection timeline and mentions the total investment... That valuation will be recognized by the market when short sellers leave, and they will leave as soon as it is clear that the company will make their first $1 from operations in any single quarter (in 2022). Even though that will not be due to Afrezza sales, it will clearly establish the longevity for Afrezza asset as MNKD will be in a position to finally market it more aggressively (with profits from TreT) and will be in a stable financial position or may choose to divest it at the right price. IMO they will leave right after TreT approval, in about 12 months from now. If they stay, it will be fun to watch the fireworks later  From that point on, any higher valuation will be based on an industry acceptable P/E ratio. If ILD indication is approved, at some point the royalties will reach 200+M a year and then we can talk about EPS and P/E ratios. Until then it is still a viable Biotech company with a good pipeline (think migraine or cannabinoids or cystic fibrosis) and a highly disruptive mealtime insulin product. So, at any time the market cap can explode upwards regardless of TreT progress (or what I call known catalysts). Longs don't need luck. |
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Post by falconquest on Dec 4, 2020 19:19:10 GMT -5
All of this price speculation reminds me of the days prior to and just post approval. We thought the sky was the limit. Today, the value of Mannkind is based on its ability to generate revenue.
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Post by longliner on Dec 4, 2020 19:24:36 GMT -5
All of this price speculation reminds me of the days prior to and just post approval. We thought the sky was the limit. Today, the value of Mannkind is based on its ability to generate revenue. Then it looks like you are in the right spot. |
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Post by falconquest on Dec 4, 2020 19:42:36 GMT -5
All of this price speculation reminds me of the days prior to and just post approval. We thought the sky was the limit. Today, the value of Mannkind is based on its ability to generate revenue. Then it looks like you are in the right spot. Yup! |
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Post by mytakeonit on Dec 4, 2020 20:32:10 GMT -5
4-8 pps...April through November IMO ..then people will short the launch and wait for proof of revenue. Interesting the most of the posts above set share price to be based on revenue. Also interesting that sports put a $4 pps in April when we are at $3 now. No wonder people thought I was talking nonsense when I set a $10 pps at the end of this year. We may not hit my number this month, but if all developments fall into place soon ... it won't be too long thereafter. But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 4, 2020 21:14:16 GMT -5
Because so many times revenue has nothing to do with the stock price.. look at the airlines, they’re all going to double, again...having no revenue.. it’s based on a forward-looking prediction. I go by the chart and the chart goes by the past.. the shorts will leave on the run up to FDA approval ..they will come back with a vengeance when the launch starts. IMO
We could float up to $4 waiting for the submission. ( If no other news and no other surprises, and no dilution. ) The approvals pretty much guaranteed at least that’s my opinion, so it would be a sell on the news after the run up.
That’s my prediction if nothing else happens.. but there’s many theories running around about what the surprises could be and what the possibilities are.
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 4, 2020 22:27:02 GMT -5
if CFO plays it right, during the run up, MNKD should end up with a considerable cash position, and that will play a part in whether or not shorts will come back.
I do not see anything enticing for them here at that point, they most likely will be accumulating Jan 22 calls instead.... and calling it a decade.
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