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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 16, 2021 13:05:48 GMT -5
Did you read the same article I did? I might have missed something, but what I saw doesn't support what you said. "Our analysis also showed that adult trials actually have a lower cost per procedure than pediatric trials." "For the 2006-09 timeframe, the pediatric cost per procedure was actually 7% higher than for that of adult clinical trials and 50% higher for the 2010-13 timeframe." Over the study period not only were paediatric trials MORE expensive, but they were becoming increasingly more-so.
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Post by Chris-C on Jan 16, 2021 15:55:53 GMT -5
I don’t mean to start that speculation (and certainly wouldn’t invest based on it) but I find it interesting that they are using cash in acquisitions and at the same time are planning for “peds” to be starting Q1/Q2 per MC at HCW. Cash as we know is king and I would be surprised if they were using cash in an acquisition if they didn’t feel confident of another incoming source. MNKD still need to get from today to whenever the first Tyvaso DPI royalties come in. I would think they would have to be partnered prior to engaging in the Phase III pediatric trial for multiple reasons. Only possible/likely additional sources of cash at this point without dilution are: - announcement of another molecule candidate with UTHR or other - possible partner on pediatric afrezza - more debt Of course MC may have been utilizing the ATM enthusiastically over recent weeks. You mention Amgen. One difference here is that they never engaged in any transactions with Amgen. Here we have seen an acquisition and a compromote deal, both with the involvement of former Novartis/Sandoz execs. And Qrum clearly has an existing relationship with Novartis due to clofazimine aka Lamprene. Does anyone know the approximate cash requirements of trial like the planned pediatric one? I was thinking exactly the same thing. Recent and planned activities suggest a CEO who is pretty confident about meeting cash needs. On the other hand, the recent run up and retracement are reminiscent of things that have happened in the past while dilution was occurring. The psychologist in me keeps murmuring that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. I hope I'm wrong (which I often am, BTW).
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 16, 2021 18:34:16 GMT -5
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Post by georgethenight2 on Jan 17, 2021 8:27:01 GMT -5
I would think that he would be contradicting himself. In last weeks "fire-side" chat he praised the company's $13m per quarter cash burn, and all the while absent-mindedly hitting the ATM seems unbelievable. My guess is that we see a buy-in from $UTHR in the near term, as additional molecules are going to cost them $10s of millions a pop, they want to keep their "money maker" close and protected from any and all enemies. Because, as was spoken in the "fire-side", Trep-T with an expanded patient base means sales that are going to engulf the current $500m per annum. Thus our current worries (IMHO) are only short-lived and a new chapter is being written as we wonder about the details. Cheers.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 17, 2021 8:32:55 GMT -5
ATM.....I don’t have an opinion on whether it’s happening or not... but it didn’t happen absentmindedly and that’s what caused so much anger before. The contradiction.
I’m gonna go with the chart looks good:-)
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Post by jlaw277 on Jan 17, 2021 10:24:26 GMT -5
I would think that he would be contradicting himself. In last weeks "fire-side" chat he praised the company's $13m per quarter cash burn, and all the while absent-mindedly hitting the ATM seems unbelievable. My guess is that we see a buy-in from $UTHR in the near term, as additional molecules are going to cost them $10s of millions a pop, they want to keep their "money maker" close and protected from any and all enemies. Because, as was spoken in the "fire-side", Trep-T with an expanded patient base means sales that are going to engulf the current $500m per annum. Thus our current worries (IMHO) are only short-lived and a new chapter is being written as we wonder about the details. Cheers. Before when the company was a "one trick pony," I could see the solo pursuit of pediatric approval (and the risks it entailed) as probably making sense from a survival perspective. However, now with the opportunities being presented by, at a minimum, Tyvaso DPI, I can't see pursuing pediatric approval as making sense without the benefit of significant assistance. There is the cost of course, but also the complicated processes (clinical & regulatory) that must be managed with no room for error. Given the opportunities emerging for the Technosphere platform, it would make little sense to dedicate the significant resources required, when "easier" revenues seem closer at hand. This is what makes me speculate that there is a partner involved. This company has done things in the past that have disappointed my expectations, but I am hoping that this time they have things locked down. I would love to see Afrezza made available to kids and I would love to see some real muscle put behind the battle with Sanofi, Lilly and Novo.
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Post by georgethenight2 on Jan 17, 2021 11:01:51 GMT -5
The chart appears to be consolidating for another run up to those magical double digits. I think we see $10 per share this year, regardless of Afrezza rx numbers. Momentum and sentient are pushing $MNKD stock now. While rxs hitting 1000 a week would be a great addition to our trend, I think that most (at least in the short to mid term) are betting on Trep-T to be big. Personally, I cant argue with them. I do find it interesting that Trep-T will probably be a bigger money maker in its initial launch as compared to Afrezza after its near 6+ years on the market. Interesting in the fact that diabetics patient numbers are a much larger group when compared to those who suffer from hypertension. A look at $UTHR's recent run up should be confirmation for this theory. Regardless, if we can get some cross-branding, purple Afrezza and what was it, orange Trep-T Dreamboat?
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Post by Chris-C on Jan 17, 2021 12:55:18 GMT -5
The chart appears to be consolidating for another run up to those magical double digits. I think we see $10 per share this year, regardless of Afrezza rx numbers. Momentum and sentient are pushing $MNKD stock now. While rxs hitting 1000 a week would be a great addition to our trend, I think that most (at least in the short to mid term) are betting on Trep-T to be big. Personally, I cant argue with them. I do find it interesting that Trep-T will probably be a bigger money maker in its initial launch as compared to Afrezza after its near 6+ years on the market. Interesting in the fact that diabetics patient numbers are a much larger group when compared to those who suffer from hypertension. A look at $UTHR's recent run up should be confirmation for this theory. Regardless, if we can get some cross-branding, purple Afrezza and what was it, orange Trep-T Dreamboat? I hope your chart predictions are correct. UTHR clearly has great optimism about Tyvaso DPI, which represents another demonstration of the value of MNKD's Technosphere technology. With luck, Tyvaso DPI will draw wider recognition of the real value of MNKDs intellectual property. With MNKD's short interest hovering around 8.2% of the float and the SP down nearly 26% off recent highs, I'm surprised that investors see much potential in betting against it. Yet, perhaps what we observe with MNKD is less about the company and more about the environment. I sense we are in a period where overall market sentiment is driven by uncertainty, and this contributes to lower volume, which may account for the recent volatile daily swings in the stock price. It is possible that this uncertainty will persist for several weeks, particularly as we approach the scariest period yet for the pandemic, predicted to occur in March. Whether this has been baked into current market valuations remains to be seen. And this is not to mention the other elephant in the room, which is the political uncertainty. The past two weeks in the USA have made it clear that possibilities we never thought imaginable are real dangers. History provides abundant evidence of the catastrophes that can occur in vulnerable populations easily misled by deranged demagogues. Thus, the next few days in the market will be interesting. It's a funny thing about long term investing and marathons. The last couple of miles can be the most demanding, and managing the fatigue comes down to controlling the mind and bolstering mental resolve. GLTAL
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