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Post by peppy on Mar 3, 2021 18:12:43 GMT -5
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 3, 2021 18:42:21 GMT -5
The reason a company is a “pubic” company is because of the need or desire to capitalize their operations. In return for money, they agree to sell equity; a right of ownership in a portion of their company. But there is more obligation than just selling ownership. They’re also agreeing to voting rights (usually), and in some cases a preferred portion to proceeds of liquidation if the company should go bankrupt. But there is still more obligation. At some point of corporate maturity, the shareholders want dividends; a cash distribution of some portion of profit. Corporate finance using other people’s money comes down to two main options; equity or debt. If you study the cost of those two methods of capitalization, the more expensive option is equity because of dividends. In the long run, it is always(?) cheaper to capitalize with debt than it is with equity, because a debt can be paid with no further obligation. You may remember that I’ve been enthusiastic about Mannkind’s improving prospects and that one of the main points of my enthusiasm was that at some point Mannkind would be able to be capitalized on much better, non-toxic, terms than they have for most of the last 7 years. Guess what? We reached that point sooner than I expected, I think. Almost everybody is amazed by the grossly favorable terms of the capitalization. But, are they really grossly favorable? We’ll know more soon. For now, on the face of it, and I think the buoyancy in the stock price underscores this, we should be very happy with this news. The bigger issue now becomes how will Mannkind use this money? I’ve been convinced for a year or so (thanks to Matt, Aged, and a PCP), that for Mannkind to flourish with Afrezza specifically, Mannkind had to address insurance coverage, and prescriber reluctance based on the paucity of convincing safety and efficacy data from clinical trials, and that meant raising a lot of money and therefore on reasonable financial terms because a lot of money on toxic terms is really only a tourniquet designed to stop the bleeding but you may lose a limb or your life. This isn’t a tourniquet. It’s an investment shot in the arm. Good post and I mostly agree with everything you wrote. But, I’m not convinced that safety concerns are a big factor in holding back potential Afrezza prescribers. The product has been dosed for years with thousands of PWD’s, and there is no indication that it significantly harms pulmonary function. As you know, the spirometry requirement was added by FDA on the advice of the advisory committee (as I recall), to exercise an abundance of caution. But, If inhaling technosphere molecules is harmful, then potentially the entire future of the company is in jeopardy, and FDA monitoring for adverse events with Afrezza would have already sounded an alert by now, one would conjecture. It seems that what we need are providers who have the time and motivation to try something that results in better management of diabetes without a steep learning curve, does not involve risk or completion of prior authorization requests for insurance companies, and does not greatly increase insulin costs for their patients. We also need patients who are motivated to manage their own disease more effectively and change their own established regimens. Tall orders, those. Script numbers show that over time, Afrezza will slowly gain traction. I’m sure that MC and his execs have a good reason for moving ahead with peds and I suspect it has to do with a target population of patients and providers who are less entrenched in the status quo. If the added revenue from peds approval can make Afrezza a break even product, resources can then be directed toward more lucrative pipeline candidates. The big thing about Tyvaso DPI is the message it sends to the market that MNKD is not defined by Afrezza. The next partnership or pipeline drug beyond Tyvaso will be the “hat trick” that really underscores the vast potential that the technology has for many potential indications. That will be when the rocket really takes off, IMO. So there is a lot riding on the company’s choice of the next pipeline candidate beyond Tyvaso DPI. Thanks Chris-C. Interesting you picked up on my comment about the lack of convincing safety information.
You misunderstand, because I wrote poorly. I've decided I'm going to be a clanging gong about Afrezza's safety profile, but not that it isn't safe. Instead, it's the exact opposite. There isn't enough clearly documented evidence of how much safer Afrezza has been in comparison to Novolog and Humalog. I'm convinced that there has not been one single ER visit or hospitalization because of a hypoglycemic event from use of Afrezza from thousands of patients in the years since FDA approval. Not one ER visit or hospitalization.
I could be wrong of course, but I would stake (am staking) good money that Afrezza is dramatically safer than the competitors. One of the biggest reasons if not the single biggest reason PCPs and Endos have historically been loathe to move patients to insulin use is because of the danger of hypoglycemic events.
I will assert safety is THE reason the SOC is a step program of squeeze and kill the pancreas and harm the liver and kidneys using metformin and other drugs before permitting a patient to use insulin. (That and metformin is "well tolerated" and CHEAP as hell.)
So, my point was there is a lack of documented evidence just how much safer Afrezza HAS BEEN in real-life use as compared to Novolog and Humalog. Visits to ER and hospitalizations based on hypoglycemia is tracked by the CDC. Those numbers are gut wrenching in terms of human anguish experienced, and from the perspective of an insurance provider, they should be counted as a cost that they would not have to bear if their insured PWD was using Afrezza for mealtime use (where hypoglycemia was caused by RAA prandial insulin alone or in conjunction with basal insulin). And, that significantly better safety profile should help PCPs and Endos to be less reluctant to permit use of insulin earlier in the treatment SOC, or maybe even start with it.
So, I could be wrong on my assumptions and assertions (won't be the first time, or the last), but I don't think I am. The lack of awareness of the amazingly better safety profile of Afrezza as compared to RAA was my lament.
Your comment that peds is a good investment of effort to build a loyal (and happier) customer base and also simultaneously build on the success of a broadening pipeline to then take on the rest of the marketing headwinds is a good one.
I agree. Crawl, walk, run, fly, orbit, warp out.
Uh, and oh yeah, how about that volume today, huh? Not as much as yesterday or the day before. I'll bet it will be interesting tomorrow.  |
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Post by peppy on Mar 3, 2021 19:23:34 GMT -5
Charting MNKD share price. Looking at the MNKD weekly, I realize price has formed a new price triangle, a 6 dollar triangle. over 5 years. Break and hold of $6.35 targets $12.35. 62 million shares of MNKD traded in three trading days.  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 4, 2021 14:19:20 GMT -5
Interesting that volume is the lightest it’s been this week and the price keeps bobbing around $3.50. I can’t tell you how pleased and surprised I am that the SP has been so resilient. Except for the fact that I put in 2 buy orders for $3 and they expired. If the SP goes up, I’m ready. If it goes down, I’m ready. Feels good. Now I want MC and friends to kick some butt and take some names to solidify that feel good emotion. I will be satisfied if it is nothing more than executing on what we know and what they’ve said. i.e., UTHR on tap, and pediatric approvals. If that is all they do, their ought to be some left over for pipeline dev and bribing some PBMs, er I mean negotiating discounts on Afrezza with PBMs.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 4, 2021 14:56:39 GMT -5
Charting MNKD share price. Looking at the MNKD weekly, I realize price has formed a new price triangle, a 6 dollar triangle. over 5 years. Break and hold of $6.35 targets $12.35. 62 million shares of MNKD traded in three trading days. 😍😍😍 I mentioned this in the INO thread, the biotech index funds XBI, and IBB...XBI especially has been hit hard since the 2nd week of Feb. down over 40 pts. off the highs as I write this. There's a lot of carnage from this corrective/rotation phase of the market. As Peter Lynch has said, "buy what you know and know what you own"...low to mid 3 area on MNKD is a pullback to the prior hard resistance area...my youngest is now a pharmacist and just last night was telling me of supply chain issues surrounding longer acting insulins (mostly SNY) due to inactive ingredient issues...but it reinforced my confidence in our onshore manufacturing capabilities...I am adding here. Also as an fyi, I am adding to my precious metals here with emphasis on KL in the mining, PSLV in the physical silver. Other thoughts on shares "on sale" today SENS, PVAM, NK. Also for those that are good with spec risk/reward NGD if you want to dip your toes in the sector 😉 |
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Post by sr71 on Mar 4, 2021 15:26:14 GMT -5
With the price drop this week, today I converted a small MNKD position in an IRA into a Roth IRA. Figured I'd rather be taxed on a low price now instead of what I believe will be a much higher price in 5 years.
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Post by peppy on Mar 4, 2021 16:08:03 GMT -5
MNKD NASDAQ REAL TIME Volume, 4,866,801 shares. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 7,981,936 Avg. Volume 6,133,695 $3.38. -0.2400 (-6.63%) At close: 4:00PM EST  A Monthly on the 4th day of trade. .png) |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 4, 2021 17:26:12 GMT -5
MNKD NASDAQ REAL TIME Volume, 4,866,801 shares. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 7,981,936 Avg. Volume 6,133,695 $3.38. -0.2400 (-6.63%) At close: 4:00PM EST A Monthly on the 4th day of trade. On both charts it's glaring how overbought the stock got soaring up to 80 RSI, also experience has taught me when major mov avg crossovers take place after a long period of time there has been a strong trend change in place for a bit and at the point of crossover there is a moment where the sp has to correct, grab it's breath, and re-energize...this is taking place in a lot of areas right now MNKD included IMO. |
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Post by peppy on Mar 4, 2021 18:10:31 GMT -5
The volume flowing through MNKD has been larger, for MNKD.
There has been more real time shares shown sold than the summary would indicate..
There has been a change of trend.
Price was in this area for 7 months as it came down.
Looks like some more work to do to get through it.
11.20 does look to target.
only four trading days into the month.
70,000,000 shares
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Post by celo on Mar 5, 2021 11:54:51 GMT -5
MNKD looks to go green today. Pretty good in this market.
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 5, 2021 15:40:28 GMT -5
Greed is winning so far today. What happened to fear ? I was hoping to take advantage  |
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Post by peppy on Mar 5, 2021 16:15:33 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 5,212,755 shares. Real time x 2 = 10,425,510. 2 million more than in summary. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 8,470,919 Avg. Volume 6,227,443 $3.67. +0.29 (+8.5799%) At close: 4:00PM EST 78.5 million shares traded this week.  |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Mar 5, 2021 16:38:01 GMT -5
Hey All, this is a little off topic for Mnkd volume but I thought it was note worthy when considering how quickly volume can explode on good news. The company EYES shot up 300% today on FDA news. If you can believe the following as shown by CNBC, the total number of shares traded was 714,500,000 shares. EYES has 23,000,000 outstanding shares. That is absolutely incredible volume. It will be interesting to see if Mnkd has a 700,000,000 share day ahead. I sure hope so.
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Post by uvula on Mar 5, 2021 16:52:49 GMT -5
Hey All, this is a little off topic for Mnkd volume but I thought it was note worthy when considering how quickly volume can explode on good news. The company EYES shot up 300% today on FDA news. If you can believe the following as shown by CNBC, the total number of shares traded was 714,500,000 shares. EYES has 23,000,000 outstanding shares. That is absolutely incredible volume. It will be interesting to see if Mnkd has a 700,000,000 share day ahead. I sure hope so. Well done Matt! (Not our current matt. Our old Matt.) |
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Post by Chris-C on Mar 5, 2021 18:40:47 GMT -5
Hey All, this is a little off topic for Mnkd volume but I thought it was note worthy when considering how quickly volume can explode on good news. The company EYES shot up 300% today on FDA news. If you can believe the following as shown by CNBC, the total number of shares traded was 714,500,000 shares. EYES has 23,000,000 outstanding shares. That is absolutely incredible volume. It will be interesting to see if Mnkd has a 700,000,000 share day ahead. I sure hope so. From 2 to 10 and half back again. Lot's of day traders got in and got out of EYES today. I thought about buying a small stake at several times during the past year. That old refrain echoes again: Woulda, shoulda, coulda. But, I shied away because of my lack of familiarity with the technology and medical equipment sales in general. I simply have no informed idea of the potential market here, or the economics involved, and I've got too many other positions to monitor. Moreover, the French connection, with all due respect to that most respectable of countries, complicates things. Congratulations to Matt Pfeffer. I'm sure Al Mann would be pleased to see his legacy add yet another success. |
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