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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 29, 2021 15:11:19 GMT -5
We all look at peppy's charts and ... and many of us will scratch our heads till we get a bald spot. I love it when she just says we are going to $100.
BUT, it seems we are all working our butts off for nothing. Just look at today's Parade on "What People Earn" and look at RYAN KAJI, 9 years old who made $29.5M as a You Tube toy reviewer. What the heck ?!!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by neil36 on Aug 29, 2021 15:40:06 GMT -5
Just some fun back-o-napkin math on a $50 price target:
- Assume there will eventually be 300 million shares outstanding
- 300 million shares at $50 a share would be a $15 billion market cap
- Assume a generous aggressive growth PE ratio of 40
- Earnings would have to be $375 million a year to support a $15 billion market cap with a PE ratio of 40
- Assume Tyvaso DPI gets approved and hits the very high end of revenue estimates and MNKD royalties come in around $150 million
- $225 million a year in earnings would have to come from other product lines.
- To get to a $100 price target, earnings would have to be in the $750 million neighborhood (again with a very generous aggressive growth PE ratio).
Fifty dollars is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. A lot of big, big successes would really have to come together over the next couple years.
But the market doesn’t always wait for the actual earnings. They just need to see huge successes coming together. DXCM has an extremely good narrative going and the market sees the trend with a lot of clarity. DXCM currently has a trailing PE ratio of 97
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Post by peppy on Aug 29, 2021 15:53:27 GMT -5
Just some fun back-o-napkin math on a $50 price target: - Assume there will eventually be 300 million shares outstanding - 300 million shares at $50 a share would be a $15 billion market cap - Assume a generous aggressive growth PE ratio of 40 - Earnings would have to be $375 million a year to support a $15 billion market cap with a PE ratio of 40 - Assume Tyvaso DPI gets approved and hits the very high end of revenue estimates and MNKD royalties come in around $150 million - $225 million a year in earnings would have to come from other product lines. - To get to a $100 price target, earnings would have to be in the $750 million neighborhood (again with a very generous aggressive growth PE ratio). Fifty dollars is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. A lot of big, big successes would really have to come together over the next couple years. But the market doesn’t always wait for the actual earnings. They just need to see huge successes coming together. DXCM has an extremely good narrative going and the market sees the trend with a lot of clarity. DXCM currently has a trailing PE ratio of 97 I see your point. finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVAX?p=NVAX&.tsrc=fin-srch
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Post by peppy on Aug 29, 2021 15:59:22 GMT -5
Just some fun back-o-napkin math on a $50 price target: - Assume there will eventually be 300 million shares outstanding - 300 million shares at $50 a share would be a $15 billion market cap - Assume a generous aggressive growth PE ratio of 40 - Earnings would have to be $375 million a year to support a $15 billion market cap with a PE ratio of 40 - Assume Tyvaso DPI gets approved and hits the very high end of revenue estimates and MNKD royalties come in around $150 million - $225 million a year in earnings would have to come from other product lines. - To get to a $100 price target, earnings would have to be in the $750 million neighborhood (again with a very generous aggressive growth PE ratio). Fifty dollars is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. A lot of big, big successes would really have to come together over the next couple years. But the market doesn’t always wait for the actual earnings. They just need to see huge successes coming together. DXCM has an extremely good narrative going and the market sees the trend with a lot of clarity. DXCM currently has a trailing PE ratio of 97 I see your point. finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVAX?p=NVAX&.tsrc=fin-srchBack of the napkin.... 9 billion people in the world. 1 dollar profit on 1 billion = 1 billion dollar profit.
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 29, 2021 16:06:05 GMT -5
That is just an accountant's logical interpretation of what should be. In the illogical world of stock market trading all hell can break loose at anytime. Maybe it won't have any duration, but changes can come hard and fast. Been there ... done that.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by BD on Aug 29, 2021 17:06:07 GMT -5
When the writing on the wall begins to resolve into the inevitable, buyers come in. Look at Tesla, GMCR to name the ones I've had good luck with, and there's plenty I missed (MSFT after Ballmer finally blew off--even when an employee I was doing a contracting job for spelled it out for me, Apple, ZM, etc.)
It could happen, or MNKD gets squished by the fickle finger of fate yet again. Honestly, at this point, could anything possibly surprise us?
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Post by longliner on Aug 30, 2021 10:39:58 GMT -5
When the writing on the wall begins to resolve into the inevitable, buyers come in. Look at Tesla, GMCR to name the ones I've had good luck with, and there's plenty I missed ( MSFT after Ballmer finally blew off--even when an employee I was doing a contracting job for spelled it out for me, Apple, ZM, etc.) It could happen, or MNKD gets squished by the fickle finger of fate yet again. Honestly, at this point, could anything possibly surprise us? You aren't alone! I think I sold into the event.....
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 30, 2021 12:45:50 GMT -5
When the writing on the wall begins to resolve into the inevitable, buyers come in. Look at Tesla, GMCR to name the ones I've had good luck with, and there's plenty I missed (MSFT after Ballmer finally blew off--even when an employee I was doing a contracting job for spelled it out for me, Apple, ZM, etc.) It could happen, or MNKD gets squished by the fickle finger of fate yet again. Honestly, at this point, could anything possibly surprise us? At this point, until the approval, we will continue to see the same march it up, then march it down action as is customary. The bottom feeders continue to take advantage of low volume, lack of market awareness and a dependable payday for shorting the stock. That's fine with me. For those of us who are long. long, long investors, the pattern is predictable. The market has no conviction on MNKD and will not until Tyvaso revenues begin and break even appears. For those who know the story, we expect that when we've seen a runup in share price, it will march back down as far as the shorts can take it. Right now, that base seems to be about $4.00. That they are able to manipulate the share price so efficiently, so predictably and so regularly hints that a lot of others know the pattern and benefit too. Either way, I this shareprice pattern to continue until Tyvaso is approved and MNKD'S first quarterly report after those revenues start. Meantime, I'll continue to acquire when the opportunity presents. I think most regular members of this board know that the Expected PDUFA date for Tyvaso DPI is now 45 days out. GLTAL Chris C
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Post by parrerob on Aug 30, 2021 13:47:46 GMT -5
Not properly Chris... I am one You described following mnkd since before the adcom.
After Sanofy stepping out from Afrezza, The pattern changed totally after Uthr announcement, where we saw finally stable up&down.... between roughtly 1 and 2 dollars.....
Then after Feb. 2020 changed again always through up&down but this time upgrading the support time by time....
Now there is a clear flag forming and pps can go back easily to 4.50$ (also 4.20$ will not ruin the flag)
Seems that below 4.20 will be hard to go..... if FDA will not joke with us (or better with Uthr) 8/8.50$ is the result of the flag (weekly) and the time can be from now till 8 weeks....
Personally I am not able to sell and buy back (unlikely because as you said we could be all millionaires doing that with correct timing since 2014) but I was smart enough to load the boat in 2019...... and after suffering years and years it is now a year that I can see Mnkd green in my account (and growing, up&down but growing)
Ciao
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 30, 2021 14:09:50 GMT -5
I can't find my post from yesterday that I mentioned that I remember that MNKD pps can't go higher than $5 till the end of this month. I'm not sure whether the "end of the month" was set for today or tomorrow. In any case, if you have extra cash you better buy on today's dip and not wait for tomorrow.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by mnlearner on Aug 30, 2021 17:32:51 GMT -5
AAAAHHHHHhhhhhhhh.....history repeats. [at least for this day]
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Post by peppy on Aug 30, 2021 18:06:24 GMT -5
“One Headlight”
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Post by porkini on Aug 30, 2021 19:28:07 GMT -5
What is a "Padiddle." Used to see them all the time driving with my folks after dark. Apologize if I'm not on topic. For anyone who needs a hint: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PadiddleSometimes mistaken for a motorcycle.
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Post by peppy on Aug 31, 2021 8:42:40 GMT -5
I do like this game. Volume starting t come in today.
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Post by geomean on Aug 31, 2021 11:44:47 GMT -5
As Wycoff would say: "It's "building cause"". :-)
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