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Post by castlerockchris on Apr 6, 2021 18:52:15 GMT -5
I love WAGs and predictions as much as the next person and I sure hope $10 is a number that we make by EOY, but I am a little more conservative. I see all the pieces being in place for a run into the mid $6 - low $7 range by EOY. That price adds a a half billion to our market cap, taking us to between 1.6 and 1.7 billion. I think we need another catalyst to get us $10 which would put us at close to 2.5 billion in market cap. If you believe the markets are forward looking then certainly some, maybe even most of the Tyvaso news is already baked into the price. In my dream world the following need to happen for us to get to a 2.5 to 3 billion market cap: 1. Revenue from manufacturing Tyvaso starts to ramp in Q4 2. FDA approves Tyvaso in December 3. MNKD announces a development deal with another solid biopharma Q3 or Q4 with a potential annual TAM of 500mm to $1 billion 4. UTHR comes back to the table with another development deal in Q1 or Q2 of 2022. I have mixed emotions about which I would prefer to happen between 3 or 4. Option 3 would diversify our base and probably result in more favorable terms. While option 4 is a proven/known quantity so the market might view it more favorably, but it is unlikely to result in better terms for MNKD. From my perspective, either #3 or #4 or another catalysts equal in potential needs to happen before the market drives us to 2.5 billion in market cap. Again,I know half the predictions here are tongue in cheek, and I totally hope I am wrong and we hit $10 by December and $20 by early 2022. From there I guess the next stop will be 100 and then on to 1,000!!!  And then lunch with Gates and Buffett families. |
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Post by morfu on Apr 6, 2021 19:34:54 GMT -5
I love WAGs and predictions as much as the next person and I sure hope $10 is a number that we make by EOY, but I am a little more conservative. I see all the pieces being in place for a run into the mid $6 - low $7 range by EOY. That price adds a a half billion to our market cap, taking us to between 1.6 and 1.7 billion. I think we need another catalyst to get us $10 which would put us at close to 2.5 billion in market cap. If you believe the markets are forward looking then certainly some, maybe even most of the Tyvaso news is already baked into the price. In my dream world the following need to happen for us to get to a 2.5 to 3 billion market cap: 1. Revenue from manufacturing Tyvaso starts to ramp in Q4 2. FDA approves Tyvaso in December 3. MNKD announces a development deal with another solid biopharma Q3 or Q4 with a potential annual TAM of 500mm to $1 billion 4. UTHR comes back to the table with another development deal in Q1 or Q2 of 2022. I have mixed emotions about which I would prefer to happen between 3 or 4. Option 3 would diversify our base and probably result in more favorable terms. While option 4 is a proven/known quantity so the market might view it more favorably, but it is unlikely to result in better terms for MNKD. From my perspective, either #3 or #4 or another catalysts equal in potential needs to happen before the market drives us to 2.5 billion in market cap. Again,I know half the predictions here are tongue in cheek, and I totally hope I am wrong and we hit $10 by December and $20 by early 2022. From there I guess the next stop will be 100 and then on to 1,000!!! And then lunch with Gates and Buffett families. Well, I dont look at the market cap, when I try to guesstimate a share value. Market caps are good to estimate the "stability" of a company and I hope we reach the "too big to fail" heaven one day with Mannkind
For me EPS is a much more relevant number. I think right now we are at about $-0.2 (!?), but I believe that we might get to $1 EPS for Mannkind within the next 10years. At that point this stock would be worth at least $50 to me and more depending on the outlook (how fast $2 EPS might be reached). With that numbers in mind (which might be wrong), I will not sell under $20 right now, so the current price seems as unreal as 10$ EOY would be.
However, assuming that "all investments doubles over 15 years", the current share price seem to suggest, that the typical Mannkind seller does not share my believe, but expects Mannkind´s EPS likely staying significantly below $1 for the next 10years, otherwise the share price should already be higher.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 6, 2021 20:32:19 GMT -5
I also look at EPS. For earnings to soar, Afrezza needs to take off. That’s possible, hopefully probable, but it won’t happen without a ton of work that I hope can be taken on in earnest with current capitalization, and bolstered by sales of Tyvaso. Also, agree blue sky of new deals, probably based on inhalable anxiety or migraine medication should help the share price too.
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Post by kc on Apr 6, 2021 21:10:17 GMT -5
Like I keep saying we will have the run up between April and November. First is the submission and then is the approval ..go back and look at the long term chart and observe the run ups to FDA approval. JMHO Sports, I am very please that you are optimistic. I know for sure that you are not a pumper. I also know that you know the whole history of MNKD (and Afrezza) better than most. Sports is not a pumper? Wow! For almost 6 or 7 years I had it all wrong......  |
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Post by kc on Apr 6, 2021 21:16:16 GMT -5
Get me $20.00 and it will help me get the memory of the shares I sold for a loss in 2016 to offset a big capital gain I had that year.
But wait.... After the wash sale date had passed, I foolishly bought back into this cult stock.
Fortunately the buy back in shares are all green these days.
But, I was never smart enough to buy any under $1.00.
My bad for not taking advantage.
My only regret is that I bought MannKind stock in 2014 and sold some Home Depot stock to do it. I should have kept that stock.
My other regret is not buying Amazon shares or Apple shares in 2014. But then again I would not be a member of this cult today had I been that smart.
Next time I will us my KOP...... AL MANN had a great KOP.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 6, 2021 22:04:53 GMT -5
Sports, I am very please that you are optimistic. I know for sure that you are not a pumper. I also know that you know the whole history of MNKD (and Afrezza) better than most. Sports is not a pumper? Wow! For almost 6 or 7 years I had it all wrong...... Ha.... i’m a reformed pumper🤣 I had Home Depot at $25 and sold it! |
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Post by letitride on Apr 6, 2021 22:29:27 GMT -5
Im not sure what the rest of yall are contemplating but I say Fall and give me $20. Im not sure what part of the UTHR deal you all are missing but Im hearing 3 shifts up and running with a 36 mill build out ramping up. Someone saw fit to throw 230 mill at this fire now. Im going to say rest and grow is done.
Its Happening!
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 6, 2021 22:32:15 GMT -5
I heard somewhere I can’t remember where that that got taken out of the post is that accurate? I mean accurate that it got taken out...
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Post by pat on Apr 7, 2021 7:08:18 GMT -5
I try and buy things that are worth a lot on the cheap.
Then I concentrate on getting up each day.
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Post by hellodolly on Apr 7, 2021 9:11:16 GMT -5
I try and buy things that are worth a lot on the cheap. Then I concentrate on getting up each day. I'm a member of the same club as you. |
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Post by lazyb767 on Apr 7, 2021 12:40:33 GMT -5
I try to make sure I'm in a positive position... to get lucky.  |
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 7, 2021 13:19:15 GMT -5
The key to profitable stock trading is ... buy stock when they are "dirt cheap". Sell a few shares when they climb a little ... buy some wine ... and don't worry about getting up early the next day.
But, that's mytakeonit
Hmmm ... if this stock doesn't hit $10 this month ... I'll be so Ember assed.
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Post by apidistra on Apr 7, 2021 15:09:40 GMT -5
Get me $20.00 and it will help me get the memory of the shares I sold for a loss in 2016 to offset a big capital gain I had that year. But wait.... After the wash sale date had passed, I foolishly bought back into this cult stock. Fortunately the buy back in shares are all green these days. But, I was never smart enough to buy any under $1.00. My bad for not taking advantage. My only regret is that I bought MannKind stock in 2014 and sold some Home Depot stock to do it. I should have kept that stock. My other regret is not buying Amazon shares or Apple shares in 2014. But then again I would not be a member of this cult today had I been that smart. Next time I will us my KOP...... AL MANN had a great KOP. I bought Apple in 2003-4. That was when I also bought Nokia and Lucent and other stocks that I sold at a loss or a very minimal profit. I still own perhaps half of the APPL I bought, but over the years the sale of portions has purchased three cars outright and other necessities, when cash was simply unavailable. I'm not a gambler by any means. I lost a lot of money over the years (a lot for someone like me who is not by any stretch wealthy, but rather independent), but the few that won, more than made up for it. What I learned is, look for real value, cut the duds, hold the winners, periodically reassess the value and wait. |
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Post by kc on Apr 7, 2021 19:05:49 GMT -5
Get me $20.00 and it will help me get the memory of the shares I sold for a loss in 2016 to offset a big capital gain I had that year. But wait.... After the wash sale date had passed, I foolishly bought back into this cult stock. Fortunately the buy back in shares are all green these days. But, I was never smart enough to buy any under $1.00. My bad for not taking advantage. My only regret is that I bought MannKind stock in 2014 and sold some Home Depot stock to do it. I should have kept that stock. My other regret is not buying Amazon shares or Apple shares in 2014. But then again I would not be a member of this cult today had I been that smart. Next time I will us my KOP...... AL MANN had a great KOP. I bought Apple in 2003-4. That was when I also bought Nokia and Lucent and other stocks that I sold at a loss or a very minimal profit. I still own perhaps half of the APPL I bought, but over the years the sale of portions has purchased three cars outright and other necessities, when cash was simply unavailable. I'm not a gambler by any means. I lost a lot of money over the years (a lot for someone like me who is not by any stretch wealthy, but rather independent), but the few that won, more than made up for it. What I learned is, look for real value, cut the duds, hold the winners, periodically reassess the value and wait. I was never smart enough to to try and time a sale of MannKind stock. Would have, Could have, Should have sold when it hit some milestones and then bought back in. But I was always afraid to miss out on the ultimate deal when it happens. Owning MannKind has taught me some lessons about having patience and being humble. I have a large portfolio with more than 35 positions. Many of them for 30 + years. So I’m not a rookie investor. I got sucked into MannKind because of the potential of the company. So Perhaps it was greed as I thought as many on this board thought that Afrezza was going to be something really special for the diabetic. I still believe but now know that the winner will be multiple uses of Technosphere. In closing I have never followed or paid attention to another position like I have with MannKind. I know that my patience one day will be achieved when the company hits a very successful milestone with multiple products using their Technosphere platform. That Afrezza goes big when they get pediatric approval. Until that day I will continue to believe that Mike C. And his team including the Board of Directors are working hard on out behalf as shareholders. I don’t begrudge their salaries, Stock bonus awards. They are invested in seeing this company in the right direction to being a winner. |
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And then lunch with Gates and Buffett families.
