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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 4, 2014 20:54:04 GMT -5
"Somebody bought 1,188,940 shares tonight in AH"
That is a LOT of shares for afterhours... and a strange number, not an even number of shares or dollar amount.
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Post by jpg on Sept 4, 2014 21:26:20 GMT -5
Who would sell that many shares AH would be the counter question to who buys and why after hours?
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Post by spiro on Sept 4, 2014 22:31:51 GMT -5
One thing is certain, Spiro is not good at nailing things down.
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Post by jpg on Sept 4, 2014 22:57:56 GMT -5
One thing is certain, Spiro is not good at nailing things down. That makes two of us I guess. Why would anyone do this big a swap AH? I call it a swap because it had to be an exchange at a price agreed to ahead of the time. Would it be to avoid the daytime algos? Market traders would obviously know a lot better and hopefully could give us their insights? JPG
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 5, 2014 17:04:38 GMT -5
Who would sell that many shares AH would be the counter question to who buys and why after hours? jpg, I'm so surprised at you, what are you, a killjoy or something? The answer to your question is so plain and obvious: The buyer of the shares is very, very sharp, and the seller of the shares is very, very dumb, or desperately in need of fast money. I had a long conversation with Spiro today, and he assured me everything is great (we didn't discuss MNKD, though). Ha, ha, no, he's very upbeat about the company's prospects and technosphere, especially. Again, as you know, Spiro and Ashiwi fell under the spell of Leona Bay in Florida (Leona Bay is near Tampa Bay, I think, for those of you who may be wondering). Spiro says everything is fine, except for the Hurricanes (not the weather event), but that's another topic. Speaking of another topic, I posed this question to our nurses a while back, it's a classic logic problem, which you may have seen before. If you haven't seen it, it will amuse you. This is very much on-topic, sharpening your logic will help you trade MNKD. Besides, not many people view the other boards, i.e., let's not market Afrezza on one of those other boards! "Joe Schwartz is a game show host. He will show you three curtains. Behind two are crummy prizes, behind the other is a great prize. The game is as follows: you pick one of the three and before you know what’s behind it, Joe will open up one of the other curtains and reveal a crummy prize (Joe knows for a fact what’s behind each and every curtain, so he can be sure of being able to do that every time). Now, Joe will ask you if you would like to stick with your original choice or switch to the remaining curtain. You, of course, want to win the great prize. Should you switch, should you stick or does it matter?"
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Post by hansmolo on Sept 5, 2014 17:49:14 GMT -5
Yes, It was Al Mann, Leone-Bay, and Jonathan Goldman who showed Spiro and myself the Cricket. I spoke to someone at Torrey Pines 2 weeks ago and they indicated to me that FDA approval for the Cricket device is necessary before human trials can start. I just have no idea the status as of today. I need a volunteer to call MNKD and ask for an update on FDA approval for the Cricket. Hi Ashiwi, I just got a call back from Matt P. (pleasant surprise. I was expecting to hear from Roberta) and asked him what he could tell me about FDA approval for the cricket. He was confused. I tried to rephrase the question, but essentially what he told me is that when the FDA approved Afrezza, they approved the dreamboat/drug combo. The same would be the case for any drug that would be delivered via the Cricket device. Both the drug and device will be reviewed by the FDA simultaneously. Based on our conversation, it doesn't sound like there are any plans to have the FDA review the Cricket device. I didn't ask (stage fright. I felt like I was talking to a celebrity) but I hope that human trials are in fact already underway. Mark
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Post by 4Balance on Sept 5, 2014 18:47:09 GMT -5
I guess I had missed the distinction between Dreamboat and Cricket. Dreamboat is reusable, and Cricket is single-use. Afrezza's Medication Guide refers ONLY to the reusable form...Dreamboat.
MNKD's web site says, "MannKind’s single-use disposable Cricket inhalers are ideal for therapies that are non-chronic, time-of-need or short duration." I'm no diabetes expert, but that doesn't sound like an Afrezza application to me.
--4B
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Post by ezrasfund on Sept 5, 2014 19:05:09 GMT -5
Baba, all logic aside, the answer to the "Monty Hall Problem" is that you should always switch. Your original odds were 1 in 3. Your new odds if you switch are 50/50, thanks to Monty having discarded one of the losing choices. But you knew that already. Was Sanofi behind door #1? I just wish there was some more excitement on the MNKD front.
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Post by spiro on Sept 5, 2014 21:29:07 GMT -5
After listening to most of the conferences for the past 6 years, I am very confident that nothing of significance will be reported again. Unfortunately I will be listening again, because apparently I am immune to disappointment. I sure hope they change their slide show, it's getting a little stale now. MNKD needs to start gradually building up investor confidence in their pipeline. For now, only a few of us have been adequately brainwashed by Leona-Bay and Jonathan Goldman.
Spiro here, I can wait and because of Global warming, the ice cap is only expanding about 25% a year in Siberia.
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Post by jpg on Sept 5, 2014 23:03:37 GMT -5
Who would sell that many shares AH would be the counter question to who buys and why after hours? jpg, I'm so surprised at you, what are you, a killjoy or something? The answer to your question is so plain and obvious: The buyer of the shares is very, very sharp, and the seller of the shares is very, very dumb, or desperately in need of fast money. I had a long conversation with Spiro today, and he assured me everything is great (we didn't discuss MNKD, though). Ha, ha, no, he's very upbeat about the company's prospects and technosphere, especially. Again, as you know, Spiro and Ashiwi fell under the spell of Leona Bay in Florida (Leona Bay is near Tampa Bay, I think, for those of you who may be wondering). Spiro says everything is fine, except for the Hurricanes (not the weather event), but that's another topic. Speaking of another topic, I posed this question to our nurses a while back, it's a classic logic problem, which you may have seen before. If you haven't seen it, it will amuse you. This is very much on-topic, sharpening your logic will help you trade MNKD. Besides, not many people view the other boards, i.e., let's not market Afrezza on one of those other boards! "Joe Schwartz is a game show host. He will show you three curtains. Behind two are crummy prizes, behind the other is a great prize. The game is as follows: you pick one of the three and before you know what’s behind it, Joe will open up one of the other curtains and reveal a crummy prize (Joe knows for a fact what’s behind each and every curtain, so he can be sure of being able to do that every time). Now, Joe will ask you if you would like to stick with your original choice or switch to the remaining curtain. You, of course, want to win the great prize. Should you switch, should you stick or does it matter?" Odds 1/3 to 1/2: switch. On't think that helps me trade MNKD though? Then again I don't trade. Actually I did buy shares a few weeks ago. First time (bought or sold) I'm 6 months. Guess that makes me a trader? JPG PS: thanks for keeping the board alive and relatively funny. PPS: as for some of those other boards I think they will never ever have any role in 'helping' MNKD or MNKD longs but they are one big sweet gift for MNKD shorts. They seem to know just enough to be credible and them being consistently wrong will change nothing in their crushing negativism and pessimism.. Approval, partnership, blockbuster sales, discovering the meaning of life will not get 'the other board' optimistic about MNKD...
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Post by jpg on Sept 5, 2014 23:13:20 GMT -5
Thinking about it some more your odds were 1/3 but are now 50/50 regardless if you switch or not. If you are at 4 doors down to 3 doors then it's an easy choice. At 3 doors down to 2 I would say it depends on what you think your host is thinking that you are going to think... Do you see why I am not a trader? So how does this help with MNKD?
JPG
Edit: on third thought... If you know the person choosing is randomly choosing wrong doors (but not the right door) then you have to switch as the 1/3 to 1/2 odds are valid. This would imply he has to choose your door if it randomly comes up (which would make for a lousy game I guess?). If you know he can't ever choose your door regardless of what is behind it I would have to speculate it no longer matters what past events were when down to 3 doors? Ezrasfund seems to disagree and can name this game so I guess I am missing part of the logic... So glad I am not a trader.
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 6, 2014 1:03:42 GMT -5
"you pick one of the three and before you know what’s behind it, Joe will open up one of the other curtains and reveal a crummy prize (Joe knows for a fact what’s behind each and every curtain, so he can be sure of being able to do that every time)"
Joe can't open the door you picked (see bolded language), by rule, he must open one of the other two and reveal one of the two crummy prizes. You guys are all around it, but your numbers are off. Keep thinking, jpg, it will help you to trade MNKD!!
Spiro, you're really gonna listen on Tuesday? I'm sure that they will be going over the phase III test results...again! And Hakan can jump and click his heels and say, "I told you no more CRLs, I told you no more CRLs!" He did tell us that at the annual meeting. And Matt can fumble in his pocket and produce the Dreamboat, along with the inhaler, and say, "I usually carry one around." Like the old American Express Commercials, "don't leave home without it." Perhaps Hakan will be sporting a bit of a French accent at this presentation.
Better they call it the "cricket" than the "cockroach!"
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Post by jpg on Sept 6, 2014 1:32:02 GMT -5
I guess I didn't read the rules well: not a lawyer... The host has no options other then to follow clearly laid out rules. So yes you switch. The prize could be in either one but the first pick was 1/3 odds. The host kindly brought them down to 1/2. Or is there an algo hidden somewhere that moves the prize around? Or does the great prize turn out to be one of those time shares?
JPG
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 6, 2014 1:37:07 GMT -5
Actually, jpg, you definitely should switch. And I'll give you one rationale (I have others, but like to start here). You had 1/3 of chance with your initial pick, that's correct, but now the other 2/3 chance must lie behind the other door (the one the host did not show you). So it's 2 to 1 in your favor to switch than stay with your original pick, which still contains only a 1/3 chance. Surprisingly, no 50/50 circumstance is involved!
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Post by 4Balance on Sept 6, 2014 2:05:37 GMT -5
Hmmm...I think odds are calculated based on each individual decision. True, the initial choice had 1 in 3 odds of picking the prize. But once one of the options has been "discarded", the decision changes: we're then left with 1 in 2 odds (50/50) of picking the winner...
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