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Post by georgethenight2 on Nov 27, 2021 17:30:39 GMT -5
While acceptance is forthcoming, the idea that peds are going to move the needle. I like Chris am somewhat reluctant to expect a huge jump in n rxs numbers. It is going to be business as usually, fighting in the trenches to gain those precious few feet. Hoping for more, but yeah pipeline growth seems like a winner.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 28, 2021 8:45:00 GMT -5
While acceptance is forthcoming, the idea that peds are going to move the needle. I like Chris am somewhat reluctant to expect a huge jump in n rxs numbers. It is going to be business as usually, fighting in the trenches to gain those precious few feet. Hoping for more, but yeah pipeline growth seems like a winner. 100% agree. We don’t need to overhype the effect of peds approval on rx numbers. Experience teaches us it’ll be a difficult slog. This time let’s be smarter about collaborating with VDEX, and yes the pipeline growth must continue and improve. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 28, 2021 11:35:13 GMT -5
akemp3000 ,@prcgorman, cretin11 , rebby , BD and others. Interesting discussion about the Sanofi exit, contractual oversights, and desperation by MNKD. I heartily agree with the importance of having provisions for a worst case scenario in any deal, but I’m not surprised MNKD was left flat footed there. Al Mann seemed certain that Afrezza would be hugely successful and he convinced his team this would be the outcome after a painfully long and expensive NDA finally leading to approval. Was it Pfeffer who famously predicted “an embarrassment of riches?” after the Sanofi deal? Had MNKD had an inkling of the headwinds facing them, they would have had a plan B, which would have included a cash raise with modest dilution when MNKD shares exceeded $10 p/s. I remember the early script numbers and my reluctance to believe that they did not resemble a blockbuster result. I bought into excuses that blamed the slow growth on the label, newness, lack of insurance coverage and pulmonary testing requirement etc, etc.In the end, too many at the company leadership level were naive, overconfident and complacent. I too drank the kool aid. So, for those convinced that Pediatric approval will send the share price to the moon, I’d suggest that letting history guide us may help long investors (and MNKD leadership) avoid painful humiliation if the results fail to meet our expectations. Personally, I’d love to be proven wrong, but I’m not convinced, and I’d rather see the money spent on pipelines and partnerships built on Technosphere. JMHO GLTAL Chris C I think the experience with India (Cipla), Brazil, Australia, and the US all demonstrate reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the pediatric trial results. I think the biggest winners out of pediatric approval will be the parents and children that are able to avail themselves of Afrezza’s “life changing” capabilities. But, I don’t expect some big wave of new prescriptions. I agree Afrezza should be a more attractive solution for children with Type 1 diabetes; especially young children. So there probably is some pent up demand, but there are only about 2,000 practicing endocrinologists in the US and it’s doubtful there are very many of them that have not heard of Afrezza or that have been anticipating FDA approval for pediatric use so that they may prescribe the medication to children. What I see differently about the Sanofi experience with respect to sales of Afrezza was that the half-hearted attempt at sales with 500 salespeople (selling many products, not just Afrezza) and without the worst global pandemic in 100 years to contend with, sales shot up rather quickly, presumably without any better insurance coverage and of course still lacking large clinical trials proving superiority. Partnering with a large BP which would commit to similar efforts but with better Direct To Consumer advertising (where permitted) and including solving the insurance and clinical trial issues, should have similar, nearly instant, results. My question there is then, can Afrezza be proven to be more economically viable as compared to the comorbidity of existing RAA-based regimens, or even lower the price of Afrezza such that it can be 1:1 competitive with Humalog and Novolog? Afrezza is a better prandial insulin than the competitor products and therefore ought to be able to have an equal (or greater) share of the prandial insulin market. Afrezza can still be the flagship product of a lucrative pipeline. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 28, 2021 13:53:01 GMT -5
It's possible but I don't recall anyone predicting a sudden jump in scripts with pediatric approval. The suggested scenario was that Afrezza would finally be proven to be "significantly" superior. My expectation is that, if true, this jump starts an important change in many conversations. This includes Mannkind's talking points to doctors, diabetics and parents as well as to potential partners or even suitors as the industry would finally see the future beginning to unfold. This should also be introduced into discussions regarding standard-of-care. As to the effect or speed of effect of this as relates to scripts, it's anyone's guess.
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