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Post by peppy on Feb 9, 2022 11:07:33 GMT -5
bloomberg estimates PUDUFA on the 23rd UTHR earnings on the 24th and MNKD on the 25th... keep posting limo, you are one of my new favorite posters. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 9, 2022 11:35:53 GMT -5
Could not agree with you more, MC is a turn around guy, and that he has done considering MNKD was on the brink of bankruptcy, and now actually has a future. He saw the ability to use the delivery method beyond just Affreza, and this is likely to drive the company in the near term, until he can find a way to market Affreza. Mike? A turn around guy? Hahahaha. That is one thing I would have never thought to call him. Mike? A visionary? Look, Al Mann designed this company with 2 products. If Mike didn't know that before he took the job, then, well, he should have been reading MNKD Proboards then. I think Mike was reading Yahoo at the time. I wouldn't call Mike a turn around guy either but he is a hard worker and a smart guy. When he came to MNKD he knew little about afrezza nor the diabetes community. He is also not Elon Musk in his ability pump up the story/pps with the street. Mike is no Willie Mays and is not going to hit 660 home runs but he is a .300+ hitter and is starting to show some power. IMO MNKD could do a lot worse. I also think he has a few home runs in him but he needs a strong clean-up hitter behind him so he gets some good pitches to hit out of the park. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 9, 2022 12:18:29 GMT -5
bloomberg estimates PUDUFA on the 23rd UTHR earnings on the 24th and MNKD on the 25th... Thanks! If Bloomberg is accurate and this sequence is intentional, Mannkind's conference call would be on a Friday. It will now be interesting to hear if the announced call is in the a.m. or after market. The final week of February could be interesting indeed. I really thought category 4 in the poll was a real long shot with the recent drop but if this plays out, just maybe? GL to cat 4. |
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 9, 2022 12:54:59 GMT -5
bloomberg estimates PUDUFA on the 23rd UTHR earnings on the 24th and MNKD on the 25th... Thanks! If Bloomberg is accurate and this sequence is intentional, Mannkind's conference call would be on a Friday. It will now be interesting to hear if the announced call is in the a.m. or after market. The final week of February could be interesting indeed. I really thought category 4 in the poll was a real long shot with the recent drop but if this plays out, just maybe? GL to cat 4. There've been tutes that've been holding positions in MNKD for a while and bought into the "story" long ago. Then, there are those tutes who've been sitting on the sidelines watching the MNKD story unfold and for some reason or another, have decided they needed to see more substance materialize before they take a position. I'll be looking for two things in the next upcoming filings regarding tute ownership. 1. The increase in positions by those who have been invested in the MNKD story, and 2. New positions opened based on the small, but increasing breadth of MNKD's platform and where else it can take them. Volume will tell us what we can look for in the next tute filings...just maybe...we see Cat 4. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 9, 2022 13:25:10 GMT -5
All I can say is ... KA CHING !!! Cheap shares are disappearing !!!
But, that's always been mytakeonit
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Feb 9, 2022 13:26:13 GMT -5
I appreciate the work you all have put into this thread, earnings per share, P/E, market cap. These markets are crazy, the valuations the debt, the buy backs. When Trept is approved, and the letters signal it will, the label is known. UTHR is getting the insurance coverage lines up. The market will see approval for a lung disease using the dreamboat. My point when calculating value, consider, COPD.... is not priced in. The mother ship (UTHR) wants it all. We can help.  Peppy, some good points. * I was just wondering if/when the Tyvaso DPI news is released, if it will also confirm whether the label will contain a blackbox warning. That will kick our proverbial football an extra 10 or 20 yards if it does. * It is also most probably true that UT is proactive in getting their insurance providers ducks in a row. Hopefully, Mikey can learn a thing or two from Martine about getting coverage done. * Getting our first partnered molecule being sold in a big way sailing in our illustrative dreamboat. * COPD - that's another 10 yards. * And my favorite of all ... UTHR is MNKD's mother ship. I love it. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Feb 9, 2022 13:41:51 GMT -5
Mike? A turn around guy? Hahahaha. That is one thing I would have never thought to call him. Mike? A visionary? Look, Al Mann designed this company with 2 products. If Mike didn't know that before he took the job, then, well, he should have been reading MNKD Proboards then. I think Mike was reading Yahoo at the time. I wouldn't call Mike a turn around guy either but he is a hard worker and a smart guy. When he came to MNKD he knew little about afrezza nor the diabetes community. He is also not Elon Musk in his ability pump up the story/pps with the street. Mike is no Willie Mays and is not going to hit 660 home runs but he is a .300+ hitter and is starting to show some power. IMO MNKD could do a lot worse. I also think he has a few home runs in him but he needs a strong clean-up hitter behind him so he gets some good pitches to hit out of the park. Sayhey, thanks for that comment. It means a lot to me because I value your opinion very much. So, I will use that to moderate my opinion of Mike's intelligence, which is that, although he did go to Wharton, he strikes me as a dufas. But, I will still keep my reservations about him being bought-out by the big-3 in holding out on (i.e., dramatically slowing down) Afrezza's success. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Feb 9, 2022 13:59:48 GMT -5
Mike? A turn around guy? Hahahaha. That is one thing I would have never thought to call him. Mike? A visionary? Look, Al Mann designed this company with 2 products. If Mike didn't know that before he took the job, then, well, he should have been reading MNKD Proboards then. That was Dr. Mann’s deal. I said I gave Mike credit for having successfully managed a company on the brink of bankruptcy with a shoestring budget. We’re a long ways from that, and he managed it. And, Mike lobbied for the CMO job because he 100% agreed with Al’s vision. He knew full well what Afrezza was and why it was special and I assume he knew it wasn’t special because of the whistle (Dreamboat) but because of the PK/PD ultra-rapid profile. And, if we ever enjoy an “embarassment of riches” (instead of an embarassment of quarterly earnings report gaffes), it will most likely be because of Afrezza being recognized for what it is; an extremely valuable tool in the toolbox of persons with diabetes. Peace, bro. For the Visionary thingy, I was alluding to the second bold-face quote in my post from phdedieu12 - " He saw the ability to use the delivery method beyond just Affreza". |
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 9, 2022 13:59:52 GMT -5
I appreciate the work you all have put into this thread, earnings per share, P/E, market cap. These markets are crazy, the valuations the debt, the buy backs. When Trept is approved, and the letters signal it will, the label is known. UTHR is getting the insurance coverage lines up. The market will see approval for a lung disease using the dreamboat. My point when calculating value, consider, COPD.... is not priced in. The mother ship (UTHR) wants it all. We can help. Peppy, some good points. * I was just wondering if/when the Tyvaso DPI news is released, if it will also confirm whether the label will contain a blackbox warning. That will kick our proverbial football an extra 10 or 20 yards if it does. * It is also most probably true that UT is proactive in getting their insurance providers ducks in a row. Hopefully, Mikey can learn a thing or two from Martine about getting coverage done. * Getting our first partnered molecule being sold in a big way sailing in our illustrative dreamboat. * COPD - that's another 10 yards. * And my favorite of all ... UTHR is MNKD's mother ship. I love it. Why do you question the label? Mike has already said publicly that there is no black box warning. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Feb 9, 2022 14:04:01 GMT -5
Great. I know that something was mentioned about it, but I wasn't sure of the certainty of it. If mike said it, then that's pretty certain. Thanks, Boca.
Boy, so much good news.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 9, 2022 16:27:43 GMT -5
I would love to see a 4 or five handle on MNKD's PE when we get to CF positive. My thought on a discounted PE compared to the industry is solely based on the fact that we are simply the assembler of the product, not the developer. The market has a history of discounting the PE of assemblers vs developers. Two comparisons come to mind quickly. Taiwan Semi (TSM) with a PE of 29.8 is the fabricator of chips, while NVDA, the developer has a PE of 76. The second would be FoxCon the assembler of the iPhone with a PE of 18 vs. AAPL the developer with a PE of 28.5. One would think their CAGR would be symbiotic, and therefore so would their PE's, but they aren't. I get that it isn't "just that simple," and I may be comparing apples to oranges, but there is a case to be made for the PE of assemblers being discounted vs the developer's. Your point that MNKD's annual growth rate for revenue and cash flow should exceed the industry's average is valid. The market will be looking to see if that is sustainable/replicable over the long haul and can that growth rate be consistent before applying an outsized multiple. Tyvaso DPI is UTHR's attempt to defend their turf from other competitors, which suggests they will put an all out effort into migrating their customers quickly, which is good for MNKD. For Tyvaso DPI to significantly impact the price of both UTHR and MNKD's stock (2 or 3X), the application of Tyvaso needs to be expanded to additional treatment areas, something that will take years to accomplish without emergency or special authorization. Because Tyvaso DPI in the near term is a defensive play for UTHR and an expansive play for MNKD, an argument can be made that the impact to stock price (as a percentage gain) favors a bigger move for MNKD. I continue to believe we see 4.75 to 5.15 with approval. Any move into the 6's will see a pull back into the low 5's within 30 days. We will see 6 to 7 as we get a couple of quarters of solid Tyvaso revenue in the books (Q1 2023 quarterly filing in April). When a favorable preliminary Pediatric Phase III readout comes, hopefully in the first half of 2023, the price goes to $10 - 12. But that Is My Take on It, ahhh, I mean thoughts on it.  Thanks MyThoughtsOnIt  I understood your original point but was just lazy in my terminology - my apologies. By industry I was referring to 'sub-industry', specifically the drug manufacturing sub-industry that you said was a more appropriate comp than the drug developer sub-industry. Peers of the drug manufacturer sub-industry have PEs of 30 but their earnings growth rate is very small. Using TSM from your example (as FoxCon data is harder for me to find with it not being listed on the NYSE) - TSM earnings growth rate is somewhere between 14% and 22% YoY depending on which metric you use source: seekingalpha.com/symbol/TSM/growth. NVDA's is between 50% and 105% source: seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA/growth. I agree with you that the manufacturer has a lower PE, and in comparing earnings growth to NVDA's, at least one reason why is clear. If Mannkind is a drug manufacturer and their earnings growth were in line with other drug manufacturers, then a PE of 30 makes sense in-line with the sub-industry average. BUT: 1. If Tyvaso DPI were approved and UTHR sells it well (which as you pointed out and I agree with, they have every incentive to), sales growth would be much higher than in a more mature company like TSM (18.5% revenue growth), increasing earnings growth compared to others in the same sub-industry, increasing PE compared the sub-industry average of 30. This was my original point. 2. The 10% that MannKind receives as a sales royalty adds to the manufacturing margin. MannKind's manufacturing margins for Tyvaso, based on your assumptions, I believe to be [Earnings: (3.5% + 10%) / Revenue: (3.5% + 10% + 15%)], or 47% margins for drug manufacturing. TSM's net income is 37.5%, and a brief search showed FoxCon margins of 6.17%. While FoxCon is definitely an extreme on the low end, most companies in this industry aren't making 47% margins without major differentiation to where they are more than just manufacturers. This is why I think a PE ratio in-line with peers of the drug manufacturing sub-industry is too low when considering the Tyvaso part of our business. If for no other reason than the higher-than-average sales growth in the initial years, but also because MannKind's margin on development activities is high. The former should result in a higher multiple in the initial years while sales ramp, and the latter should add to a higher multiple structurally - in the initial years and longer term. Now, I do not fault you for trying to keep things conservative and realistic! I could be better about that for sure. I just want to point out that high growth for early stage companies (early in monetization, not in years ) is what leads to outsized PE ratios and share prices. And while the Street may not reward us until they see the money, if UTHR delivers, our PE should be much better than average. |
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Post by letitride on Feb 9, 2022 17:02:59 GMT -5
I forgot to calculate anything this afternoon and just kept pressing the buy button. Im going to have some accounting to do when my better half finds out.
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 9, 2022 18:00:52 GMT -5
letitride - You're lucky ! My better half  TOLD me to take her to Costco so I could push the cart and follow her. Why me Lord !!! But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 11, 2022 12:53:39 GMT -5
I voted $5-$6 but after what happened to SENS today with their FDA approval, I’m starting to wonder if MNKD may sell off on the FDA approval.
Maybe it’s not a fair comparison since SENS also released their 2022 outlook without a big increase in expected revenue from their new product. MC said they have no plans to start to project earnings anytime soon so analysts will just have to keep guessing. We’ll need to watch UTHR’s projections closely.
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Post by peppy on Feb 11, 2022 13:07:21 GMT -5
I voted $5-$6 but after what happened to SENS today with their FDA approval, I’m starting to wonder if MNKD may sell off on the FDA approval. Maybe it’s not a fair comparison since SENS also released their 2022 outlook without a big increase in expected revenue from their new product. MC said they have no plans to start to project earnings anytime soon so analysts will just have to keep guessing. We’ll need to watch UTHR’s projections closely. I see SENS more in the situation MNKD was in prior to their partnership with Sanofi. Approved product, with out enough EPS to cover debt, and insurance coverage. I see MNKD as a COMPANY that has cupped, and has made a year long base. A company that is going from some revenue unable to cover costs, to a company with two approved products, a rock solid partner, an indication and label that allows for distribution with insurance coverage. I have the digital picture from the contract, UTHR's responsibly to line up the insurance coverage and the kick backs for insurance. The sample order will be put in. blah blah blah..... MNKD further along the road and SENS valuation is trading greater than MNKDs. I hear your disappointment BOCA. |
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I understood your original point but was just lazy in my terminology - my apologies. By industry I was referring to 'sub-industry', specifically the drug manufacturing sub-industry that you said was a more appropriate comp than the drug developer sub-industry. Peers of the drug manufacturer sub-industry have PEs of 30 but their earnings growth rate is very small. Using TSM from your example (as FoxCon data is harder for me to find with it not being listed on the NYSE) - TSM earnings growth rate is somewhere between 14% and 22% YoY depending on which metric you use source: 
TOLD me to take her to Costco so I could push the cart and follow her.