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Post by georgethenight2 on May 28, 2022 4:57:22 GMT -5
On PB, not so much, but on ST I hear it a lot. People going to sell at $10, $5 etc. We haven't even really introduced Afrezza in Brazil and people are thinking if selling. I used to remember the mantra, "I sell when Al does", this is no longer possible, but maybe we adopte a new slogan: I sell when we have reached x% of market penetration. But, for me honestly, this is going to be more than an investment, it has opened my eyes to the possibility of believing something and having an unwavering faith in something you feel strongly about. I still am calling triple digits in the near term, leas than 5 years, and only more after that. I will no longer talk bad about MC anymore.
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Post by parrerob on May 28, 2022 5:35:25 GMT -5
On PB, not so much, but on ST I hear it a lot. People going to sell at $10, $5 etc. We haven't even really introduced Afrezza in Brazil and people are thinking if selling. I used to remember the mantra, "I sell when Al does", this is no longer possible, but maybe we adopte a new slogan: I sell when we have reached x% of market penetration. But, for me honestly, this is going to be more than an investment, it has opened my eyes to the possibility of believing something and having an unwavering faith in something you feel strongly about. I still am calling triple digits in the near term, leas than 5 years, and only more after that. I will no longer talk bad about MC anymore. Agree on the concept, but not on numbers. Mainly 5 years or less to triple digit.....triple digit means a MC of more then 25 billions.... look at uthr with 16.4 rate EPS.... wow earnings of more then 1,5 billions? Flight down guys.... dont dream too much.... this is configuring an exceptional investment but please stay calm... |
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Post by georgethenight2 on May 28, 2022 7:45:49 GMT -5
On PB, not so much, but on ST I hear it a lot. People going to sell at $10, $5 etc. We haven't even really introduced Afrezza in Brazil and people are thinking if selling. I used to remember the mantra, "I sell when Al does", this is no longer possible, but maybe we adopte a new slogan: I sell when we have reached x% of market penetration. But, for me honestly, this is going to be more than an investment, it has opened my eyes to the possibility of believing something and having an unwavering faith in something you feel strongly about. I still am calling triple digits in the near term, leas than 5 years, and only more after that. I will no longer talk bad about MC anymore. Agree on the concept, but not on numbers. Mainly 5 years or less to triple digit.....triple digit means a MC of more then 25 billions.... look at uthr with 16.4 rate EPS.... wow earnings of more then 1,5 billions? Flight down guys.... dont dream too much.... this is configuring an exceptional investment but please stay calm... How long did it take for TSLA to go from 0 to hero? Personally, looking for that similar move. $100+ in less than 5. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 28, 2022 8:09:48 GMT -5
It is interesting that Mike Castagna’s initials are the same as Market Capitalization. :-)
Afrezza goes viral.
Those 3 words spell triple digits and more. But is inhalable human insulin at mealtime capable of becoming a viral sensation? I used to think so.
“Viral” implies consumers create the viral demand largely based on word of mouth testimony. And, while Persons With Diabetes (PWD) definitely share their experiences, and many Afrezza patients have independently used the words “life changing”, its harder for me to imagine viral than it used to be.
Significant success and maybe a stock buy-back program? Last I checked, the NASDAQ average P/E was around 25:1. That’s approximately $4 EPS for Mannkind. Triple digit SP in 5 years? I cannot say it is impossible or even overly optimistic.
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Post by akemp3000 on May 28, 2022 8:22:36 GMT -5
When comparing MNKD's potential to other drug companies, the typical analysis discusses earnings per share, value in multiples and other common math valuations. This isn't wrong BUT an important topic often overlooked in comparisons is pipeline potential. IMO, Mannkind's potential to improve quality of life with so many different diseases in very large markets is key to what separates this company's stock potential from others. This is also key to what inspired MC to completely overhaul the business model several years ago which seems to be evolving nicely. This is why I too believe the upside is greater and hopefully faster than many think.
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Post by winner on May 28, 2022 8:23:57 GMT -5
Good morning MNKD equity shareholders. I am a retired blue collar worker. My better half and I spend the winter months in Florida. If / when the share price gets to $20.00, I can honestly say with our life style, it would be near impossible to spend all of the gains, if I were to cash in my holding. Educated guess, our grand kids (via estate transfer) will get to enjoy the MNKD equity share increase. ENJOY THE UPCOMING I.M.H.O. SIGNIFICASNT SHARE PRICE INCREASES. OUR TIME IN NOW........
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Post by cjm18 on May 28, 2022 8:34:07 GMT -5
Agree on the concept, but not on numbers. Mainly 5 years or less to triple digit.....triple digit means a MC of more then 25 billions.... look at uthr with 16.4 rate EPS.... wow earnings of more then 1,5 billions? Flight down guys.... dont dream too much.... this is configuring an exceptional investment but please stay calm... How long did it take for TSLA to go from 0 to hero? Personally, looking for that similar move. $100+ in less than 5. 10 years. 50% of the 7 billion dollars mealtime insulin market is 3.5b. That’s what it would take to get even close to 25b mc. Not happening by then if ever. |
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Post by uvula on May 28, 2022 8:44:49 GMT -5
Nice thread subject. Could just as well have been "near half a billion reasons to not be short".
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Post by neil36 on May 28, 2022 9:17:21 GMT -5
Triple digits equates to market cap of $25 billion (and yes, we will most likely have more shares outstanding over the next five years).
Here are a few P/E ratios to consider:
P/E 100 requires $250 million per year in earnings
P/E 50 requires $500 million per year
P/E 25 requires $1 billion a year
Tesla and Dexcom have historically had triple-digit P/E ratios because of the extreme growth and profitability rates
Amgen is around 25. Merck roughly 17, Eli Lilly 48, BMY 27.
But if MNKD is small and growing rapidly with profits increasing smartly every quarter, the P/E ratio could be quite generous.
But for that to happen, Tyvaso DPI needs to be wildly successful, expanded to other indications, and to other countries. If it was hitting on all cylinders, royalties could become substantial. Castagna at one point said the royalties could be more than the current market cap of the company if DPI was expanded to all possible PAH indications. (can anyone dig up that quote?)
Afrezza will gradually grow. But it could have a crossover point where suddenly it is on everyone's radar. But right now it looks like a story of modest but steady growth.
Other stories could really launch the company if they come to fruition, but they all require enormous patience.
- RLS is supposed to release some initial data by the end of June
- Initial clofazamine data should be released this Fall
- And news could come at any time about MNKD-201, 301 or 501 (nintedanib, dornase alpha and the collaboration with Thirona Bio)
Bottomline is that after the years of negativity, a hundred dollar price target will generate eyerolls for quite some time. But yes, there are ways the company could get there. Personally, I view this in steps. The first victory was removing the "going concern" language from SEC filings. That was HUGE. The next goal (my goal) is to see how quickly they get to $50 million in earnings and a double-digit stock price. I think that is very realistic and shouldn't generate any eye-rolls or laughs.
My $0.02
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Post by pat on May 28, 2022 14:56:41 GMT -5
Absent an improvement in the sales of afrezza, a huge wildcard, seems like it’s just chopping wood putting existing medications onto the techno sphere platform for the next 10+ years. The cost to manufacture the meds and the powder is probably de minimus in most cases. So the limiting factor would seem to be the money and time to clear each new molecule through the FDA. Each new molecule will be incremental to the bottom line. This one is 100mm or thereabouts. Could we get to 5B in 10 years that would drive a 100B market cap? Seems doable.
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Post by hellodolly on May 28, 2022 15:36:52 GMT -5
Absent an improvement in the sales of afrezza, a huge wildcard, seems like it’s just chopping wood putting existing medications onto the techno sphere platform for the next 10+ years. The cost to manufacture the meds and the powder is probably de minimus in most cases. So the limiting factor would seem to be the money and time to clear each new molecule through the FDA. Each new molecule will be incremental to the bottom line. This one is 100mm or thereabouts. Could we get to 5B in 10 years that would drive a 100B market cap? Seems doable. This is the best case scenario and one which makes the most sense based on the most recent accomplishments with UTHR. I can't fathom the list of drugs that could be inhaled just for the mere advantage of immediate relief from cold symptoms (runny nose, cough, sore throat), pain relief (toothaches, headaches, sprains, muscle spasms), inflammation, anxiety disorders and hell...who knows if it could target certain oncology diseases such as lung cancer or certain blood cancers (including leukemia, lymphoma and myeloma) if not the relief from the pain these diseases and more can cause. Yep, wash, rinse, repeat....next drug, wash, rinse, repeat, next drug...MNKD simply partners with interested parties. |
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Post by Chris-C on May 28, 2022 15:37:16 GMT -5
I have a feeling that the next significant positive announcement, whatever it is, whether a significant MNKD pipeline milestone or expansion, a new partnership with a large BP, or a label change for Afrezza (no black box, peds approval) will be a very significant catalyst into double digits. Tyvaso approval is huge, no doubt, but another significant step forward will change general perceptions and get widespread attention of investors.
JMHO
Chc
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Post by uvula on May 28, 2022 16:56:48 GMT -5
Hmm. At this point it seems like mnkd can determine in the lab which approved drugs are dreamboatable. And it is almost a slam dunk that a clinical trial with an already approved drug paired with technosphere will be successful. If this is true then it is relatively inexpensive for drug companies to partner with mnkd. I'm feeling more optimistic than I have in a long time.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 29, 2022 9:38:21 GMT -5
Holy crap! Uvula just wrote a positive post! My head is swimming. Sorry uvula, you’ve written plenty of good posts but I don’t remember any positive ones.
Thank you neil36, hellodolly, pat, and Chris-C (and uvula). You made my morning.
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Post by anderson on May 29, 2022 12:25:38 GMT -5
Hmm. At this point it seems like mnkd can determine in the lab which approved drugs are dreamboatable. And it is almost a slam dunk that a clinical trial with an already approved drug paired with technosphere will be successful. If this is true then it is relatively inexpensive for drug companies to partner with mnkd. I'm feeling more optimistic than I have in a long time. They have tested lots of compounds in the lab and found DKP to be able to encapsulate them, but then they have to do a lot more studies for stability and efficacy of the formulation to see if it is worth it. There can also be several formulations for the same API to affect these properties. I think MC said that was about 1 mil to do this for a API, so not to expensive. The bigger problem is time it takes, and number of qualified people MNKD has that are able to formulate the test candidates. Not sure what the learning curve for new researchers would be, so let hope they ramp up the R&D section so we can do more at once.
Also the main reason I can see drug companies wanting to do this is Patent extension.
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