2022 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call

[akemp3000]

Yep. Been waiting on the training wheels to come off for a very long time. Hopefully, Wednesday's the day we see some serious green but based on history, definitely not expecting or counting on it.

[mytakeonit]

Negativity is not allowed on Proboards ... go to the corner and contemplate the error of your ways.

GO MNKD !!!

But, that's mytakeonit

[hellodolly]

Aug 6, 2022 17:22:35 GMT -5 akemp3000 said:

Yep. Been waiting on the training wheels to come off for a very long time. Hopefully, Wednesday's the day we see some serious green but based on history, definitely not expecting or counting on it.

I was just thinking of starting a new thread about this week as 'finally arriving' and waiting for the moment but, it seems so anti-climactic. 
When I look around at some other bios I own, most pre-revenue stories, nearly all sank to their pre-pandemic 2Q (Jan-Mar) lows for a retest.  MNKD avoided that nasty retest of .80 cents only, IMHO because of the fact Afrezza is continuously showing some signs of growth, Mike made moves to build up their cash runway and the United deal.  So, I'm like you...just not counting on any thing more than a buck added to the SP, trading for a while in between the $5-6 range .  However, after a full year of revenue and United growing and expanding their market with patients using Tyvaso DPI, this time next year we could be trading $8-9 area.  I may be way off base but, that's not using any multiples given to the industry for our size company that manufactures two drugs.  

[akemp3000]

Totally agree. Our day is coming soon enough regardless of what happens now. It's no longer years. It's now weeks or possibly months.

[dh4mizzou]

hellodolly,

You stated "I may be way off base but, that's not using any multiples given to the industry for our size company that manufactures two drugs."

What multiple do you see that satisfies your statement?

[hellodolly]

Aug 7, 2022 11:40:40 GMT -5 dh4mizzou said:

hellodolly,

You stated "I may be way off base but, that's not using any multiples given to the industry for our size company that manufactures two drugs."

What multiple do you see that satisfies your statement?

Not even going to try and take a stab it with so many variables, but from 2018 I like using revenue multiples since we have products flowing into the market:

//Using revenue multiples can get around some of those issues and can be a “cleaner” way to use multiples to capture the growth potential of early-stage products. Typically a product will generate a meaningful amount of revenue before it generates a meaningful amount of profit, so you can put revenue multiples on earlier years than you can for P/E multiples (ie, if a product generates $100M revenue but only 20% contribution margins in year two, and “mature” margins are expected to be 50% starting in year 5, you may need to use year 5 for a P/E multiple but could potentially get away with year 2 for revenue multiple). However, if a company has high-growth products as well as material earnings from “mature” products, it’s probably better to use P/E, or a sum-of-the-parts approach with different multiples for different products.

Of course it is still a very imperfect method. As discussed in the prior post, forecasting the sales trajectory of a new drug launch is very difficult. It’s also not straightforward to pick which year’s revenue to use – do you use 2-year forward revenue, 3-year, 4-year?

One way you can get around this is to use a “peak sales” multiple. Pick some comps that were bought at a similar stage to your company, figure out the peak sales of their main product(s) (assuming there are only a few major products), then divide equity value (“tech” value, assuming a company has no debt) by peak sales and there’s your multiple. This way, you don’t have to guess about the sales trajectory, and you don’t have to worry about picking a year for your forward multiple. Of course the downside is that you may not have a great comp set, and this doesn’t really account for how quickly / slowly your product will ramp.//

Using this model, you would still need to consider MNKD as having a "platform" whereby more drugs can be manufactured for added value.  Maybe the market would be willing to assign a low multiple of say 9X and as the platform grows, the multiple grows, too???

Source:Biotech finance 102 for finance professionals www.baybridgebio.com/blog/bio_finance_intermediate.html

[cretin11]

Dolly to make sure I’m following you correctly, are you predicting around a dollar increase to our share price from our upcoming quarterly call?

That would be an excellent result, would be a pleasant surprise IMO.

[peppy]

seekingalpha.com/article/4529265-united-therapeutics-corporation-uthr-ceo-dr-martine-rothblatt-on-q2-2022-results-earnings?mailingid=28601412&messageid=2800&serial=28601412.1092&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28601412.1092

"These products include our launched products such as Orenitram, Tyvaso, Tyvaso DPI and Remunity, as well as our late-stage pipeline products such as ralinepag and Tyvaso for COPD. The launched products alone get us to a revenue doubling, as I just described in the beginning of my presentation, largely just by penetration of WHO Group 3 pulmonary hypertension by Tyvaso, the type of results that you see so outstandingly presented in this quarter's numbers. All of the pipeline products are actually just additional gravy to getting us to that goal.

Now at that point, this second generation of revenue kicks in above $4 billion. So going from the $2 billion revenue run rate that we are right now to the $4 billion is accomplished overwhelmingly with just our launched products.

The second generation of revenue kicks in above and beyond that $4 billion threshold, which we should achieve around 2025 with approval of our TETON study as the basis of a disease-modifying treatment and the first disease-modifying treatment for IPF. Here, we forecast an additional $4 billion in revenue coming from about 40,000 patients at roughly speaking, $100,000 per year.

With those kind of numbers, we should be able to close out the 2020s with about $8 billion in revenue annually, roughly half from pulmonary hypertension and half from pulmonary fibrosis. By that time, we will be ready to monetize our organ manufacturing business with thousands of kidneys, hearts and lungs, bringing us well over $10 billion in revenue in the 2030s. So that organ manufacturing business is the third peak that we would achieve in the years ahead. In summary, at the 30,000-foot level, we expect greater than fivefold growth in 8-or-so years."

======================================================================================

Some of this will begin to be priced in.
MNKD is a growth company Pharma

[tarheelblue004]

Peppy, Wall Street is supposed to be forward-looking but nothing that Martine says gets priced into MNKD. My guess is because of how the Afrezza story was expected to play out vs how it did. So be it. I’ll keep buying the company with a market cap under a billion and watch while it stacks up $100M+ in annual recurring revenue / profits from a single revenue stream over the next 3 years, not to mention any others. Unless Martine does not meet her targets, but I bet she will.

[peppy]

Aug 7, 2022 15:18:24 GMT -5 tarheelblue004 said:

Peppy, Wall Street is supposed to be forward-looking but nothing that Martine says gets priced into MNKD. My guess is because of how the Afrezza story was expected to play out vs how it did. So be it. I’ll keep buying the company with a market cap under a billion and watch while it stacks up $100M+ in annual recurring revenue / profits from a single revenue stream over the next 3 years, not to mention any others. Unless Martine does not meet her targets, but I bet she will.

So far.
Things have changed.

[peppy]

Aug 7, 2022 12:40:47 GMT -5 cretin11 said:

Dolly to make sure I’m following you correctly, are you predicting around a dollar increase to our share price from our upcoming quarterly call?

That would be an excellent result, would be a pleasant surprise IMO.

Cretin what is your prediction for share price from our upcoming quarterly call?

Say, end of day on august 10th?

[ryster505]

Aug 7, 2022 14:43:51 GMT -5 peppy said:

seekingalpha.com/article/4529265-united-therapeutics-corporation-uthr-ceo-dr-martine-rothblatt-on-q2-2022-results-earnings?mailingid=28601412&messageid=2800&serial=28601412.1092&source=email_2800&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28601412.1092

"These products include our launched products such as Orenitram, Tyvaso, Tyvaso DPI and Remunity, as well as our late-stage pipeline products such as ralinepag and Tyvaso for COPD. The launched products alone get us to a revenue doubling, as I just described in the beginning of my presentation, largely just by penetration of WHO Group 3 pulmonary hypertension by Tyvaso, the type of results that you see so outstandingly presented in this quarter's numbers. All of the pipeline products are actually just additional gravy to getting us to that goal.

Now at that point, this second generation of revenue kicks in above $4 billion. So going from the $2 billion revenue run rate that we are right now to the $4 billion is accomplished overwhelmingly with just our launched products.

The second generation of revenue kicks in above and beyond that $4 billion threshold, which we should achieve around 2025 with approval of our TETON study as the basis of a disease-modifying treatment and the first disease-modifying treatment for IPF. Here, we forecast an additional $4 billion in revenue coming from about 40,000 patients at roughly speaking, $100,000 per year.

With those kind of numbers, we should be able to close out the 2020s with about $8 billion in revenue annually, roughly half from pulmonary hypertension and half from pulmonary fibrosis. By that time, we will be ready to monetize our organ manufacturing business with thousands of kidneys, hearts and lungs, bringing us well over $10 billion in revenue in the 2030s. So that organ manufacturing business is the third peak that we would achieve in the years ahead. In summary, at the 30,000-foot level, we expect greater than fivefold growth in 8-or-so years."

======================================================================================

Some of this will begin to be priced in.
MNKD is a growth company Pharma

This is also ONLY factoring one compound with United. This is simply icing on the cake. I imagine Clofazamine will be partnered out as well as several additional compounds with United, Receptor etc…Oh, and I also forgot to include Peds…There will be a lot to discuss in this forum into the 2030’s…Peppy, I think we may need a bigger boat!

[akemp3000]

If understood correctly, the upcoming call is 5 p.m. EST on August 9th, so make that end of day on August 10. Mannkind could of course, publish the report in the a.m. before the call but we need to hear MC.

[mytakeonit]

If you have enough shares ... the call will start at 11 a.m. ... in Hawaii.

But, that's mytakeonit

[biffn]

>=6.50 on a bull flag (2020-2022) breakout.