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Post by Clement on Aug 12, 2022 14:17:23 GMT -5
Total revenue for Q4 2021 was $12.5 million.
Per Yahoo Finance, average analysts' estimate for Q4 2022 is $30.9 million (which I think is very low).
That's more than 2.5X. In other words, 150% increase!
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Post by mymann on Aug 12, 2022 19:23:02 GMT -5
If only sp would 2.5x the current price. Wishful thinking.
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Post by akemp3000 on Aug 12, 2022 20:35:40 GMT -5
It's coming. Stay tuned  |
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Post by cjm18 on Aug 13, 2022 9:22:46 GMT -5
Getting to 31m in q4 from 19m in q2 is not going to be easy.
Total revenues were $18.9 million for the second quarter of 2022, reflecting Afrezza® net revenue of $10.6 million, V-Go net revenue of $2.1 million, collaborations and services revenue of $5.9 million, and royalties of $0.3 million.
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Post by Clement on Aug 13, 2022 12:47:26 GMT -5
Here's how Q4 gets there ($ in millions):
a) Afrezza 12.4
b) VGO 4.1
c) T-DPI royalties 8.2
d) Collaboration and services -- T-DPI manufacturing 10.2
e) Collaborations and services -- other, not manufacturing 1.0
f) Recognition of deferred revenue 0.6
Total 36 .5
Explanations:
a) $11.3 million Afrezza net in Q4 2021. Add 10%.
b) ($0.8 million per week Symphony for 13 weeks) times 40% to get net revenue. That's conservative.
c) total Tyvaso revs Q1 2022 = $172 million. Q2 = $201 million. Project linearly to Q3 and Q4 and you get $274 million for Q4. DPI is half that so $137 million. Royalties would be 10% of that so $13.7 million. However, royalties do not apply to free samples. Let's say that free samples will be 40%. Then 60% of $13.7 million is $8.2 million.
d) T-DPI manufacturing charges to UT are on a cost plus basis. I am choosing 7.5% to be conservative. We have already calculated a projection for T-DPI for Q4 2022, that is, $137 million. Then 7.5% of $137 million is $10.2 million.
e) That's near the minimum compared to the last 8 quarters.
f) As of June 30, 2022, there's $29.8 million of deferred revenue on the balance sheet which someday will be recognized. From reading the 10Q, I think 4.1 million will be recognized in Q3 and the rest over 10 years.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 13, 2022 13:18:23 GMT -5
Here's how Q4 gets there ($ in millions): a) Afrezza 12.4 b) VGO 4.1 c) T-DPI royalties 8.2 d) Collaboration and services -- T-DPI manufacturing 10.2 e) Collaborations and services -- other, not manufacturing 1.0 f) Recognition of deferred revenue 0.6 Total 36 .5 Explanations: a) $11.3 million Afrezza net in Q4 2021. Add 10%. b) ($0.8 million per week Symphony for 13 weeks) times 40% to get net revenue. That's conservative. c) total Tyvaso revs Q1 2022 = $172 million. Q2 = $201 million. Project linearly to Q3 and Q4 and you get $274 million for Q4. DPI is half that so $137 million. Royalties would be 10% of that so $13.7 million. However, royalties do not apply to free samples. Let's say that free samples will be 40%. Then 60% of $13.7 million is $8.2 million. d) T-DPI manufacturing charges to UT are on a cost plus basis. I am choosing 7.5% to be conservative. We have already calculated a projection for T-DPI for Q4 2022, that is, $137 million. Then 7.5% of $137 million is $10.2 million. e) That's near the minimum compared to the last 8 quarters. f) As of June 30, 2022, there's $29.8 million of deferred revenue on the balance sheet which someday will be recognized. From reading the 10Q, I think 4.1 million will be recognized in Q3 and the rest over 10 years. This analysis is well done. Thank you for posting this. |
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Post by cjm18 on Aug 13, 2022 19:38:41 GMT -5
Here's how Q4 gets there ($ in millions): a) Afrezza 12.4 b) VGO 4.1 c) T-DPI royalties 8.2 d) Collaboration and services -- T-DPI manufacturing 10.2 e) Collaborations and services -- other, not manufacturing 1.0 f) Recognition of deferred revenue 0.6 Total 36 .5 Explanations: a) $11.3 million Afrezza net in Q4 2021. Add 10%. b) ($0.8 million per week Symphony for 13 weeks) times 40% to get net revenue. That's conservative. c) total Tyvaso revs Q1 2022 = $172 million. Q2 = $201 million. Project linearly to Q3 and Q4 and you get $274 million for Q4. DPI is half that so $137 million. Royalties would be 10% of that so $13.7 million. However, royalties do not apply to free samples. Let's say that free samples will be 40%. Then 60% of $13.7 million is $8.2 million. d) T-DPI manufacturing charges to UT are on a cost plus basis. I am choosing 7.5% to be conservative. We have already calculated a projection for T-DPI for Q4 2022, that is, $137 million. Then 7.5% of $137 million is $10.2 million. e) That's near the minimum compared to the last 8 quarters. f) As of June 30, 2022, there's $29.8 million of deferred revenue on the balance sheet which someday will be recognized. From reading the 10Q, I think 4.1 million will be recognized in Q3 and the rest over 10 years. This analysis is well done. Thank you for posting this. The 137m number is key. Conversion long term is 50%. Not by q4. |
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Post by neil36 on Aug 13, 2022 20:11:38 GMT -5
Hey Clement. Thanks for this.
Can you point me to the line that says they will recognize 4.1 million in deferred revenue next quarter? Thanks in advance
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Post by Clement on Aug 13, 2022 22:22:24 GMT -5
Hey Clement. Thanks for this. Can you point me to the line that says they will recognize 4.1 million in deferred revenue next quarter? Thanks in advance "And we deferred $4.1 million of revenue to the balance sheet in the second quarter, of which approximately half is associated with inventory that sits on our balance sheet and is expected to be sold to UT in the third quarter when we will recognize the associated deferred revenue to income. Beginning in the second quarter, we have started to recognize prior period deferred revenue for manufacturing services and expect to do so throughout the life of the manufacturing contract with UT, which runs 2031. There was a total of $29.8 million of deferred revenue associated with UT on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022." www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/08/10/mannkind-corporation-mnkd-q2-2022-earnings-call-tr/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=articleSorry, I missed that by half. So it looks like the total for Q4 will be a little bit higher than I previously estimated. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Aug 14, 2022 12:57:48 GMT -5
Clement, thank you for sharing your work. Good job.
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Post by casualinvestor on Aug 15, 2022 9:45:07 GMT -5
d) T-DPI manufacturing charges to UT are on a cost plus basis. I am choosing 7.5% to be conservative. We have already calculated a projection for T-DPI for Q4 2022, that is, $137 million. Then 7.5% of $137 million is $10.2 million. Where did we come up with the projection for production costs? This is the revenue projection for Q4 rather than a manufacturing cost. G&A cost for all of UTHR in Q2 was 76.9M, and Tyvaso was 201M in sales out of 466.9M in sales for all of UTHR That doesn't really give us much of a clue since I have no idea if MNKD can claim Share-based compensation expense as part of manufacturing costs, or whether Tyvaso-DPI costs more to manufacture than Tyvaso. But I'm pretty sure that manufacturing costs of a drug are going to be much lower than the final sale price |
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Post by awesomo on Aug 15, 2022 11:49:53 GMT -5
From UTHR's financials, the cost of product sales for Q2 was $6.5M off $201M of Tyvaso sales. Cost of product sales includes manufacturing costs...
"Our cost of product sales primarily includes costs to manufacture our products, royalty and milestone payments under license agreements granting us rights to sell related products, direct and indirect distribution costs incurred in the sale of our products, and the costs of inventory reserves for current and projected obsolescence."
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Post by ronw77077 on Aug 15, 2022 15:10:37 GMT -5
Per the Q2 10-Q “The total anticipated cash flow includes a transaction price of $64.3 million for the contractual obligations under the CSA for the Manufacturing Services and the Next-Gen R&D Services performance obligations and $399.2 million for future supply of Tyvaso DPI over the remaining term of the CSA. The Next-Gen R&D services is a small amount and I will ignore it for our purposes." If I understand this correctly, MNKD projects manufacturing cost of 16%. This seems reasonable given MNKD's 31% cost for Afrezza.
Also note that free samples will not constitute revenue so if $137 million is the correct number, and if you like the very conservative 10%, then royalties in Q4 on DPI would be $13.7 million. And, manufacturing costs on $137 million would be $21.9 million. However the reimbursement for manufacturing costs may be treated as "negative" costs rather than revenue. Either way it benefits the bottom line, but revenue would differ.
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Post by Clement on Aug 16, 2022 8:58:40 GMT -5
Page 25 of the 10Q
Re: Commercial Supply Agreement
" Following the FDA’s approval of Tyvaso DPI, UT began issuing the Company purchase
orders for the supply of product, which represents distinct contracts and performance obligations under ASC 606. Revenue is recognized for the supply of
product at a point in time, once control is transferred to UT."
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Post by Thundersnow on Aug 16, 2022 9:55:38 GMT -5
Page 25 of the 10Q Re: Commercial Supply Agreement " Following the FDA’s approval of Tyvaso DPI, UT began issuing the Company purchase orders for the supply of product, which represents distinct contracts and performance obligations under ASC 606. Revenue is recognized for the supply of product at a point in time, once control is transferred to UT." Yes Binder confirmed that several quarters ago. UT will issue a Purchase Order for DPI and once delivered MNKD gets to recognize the revenue. It doesn't not have to be sold into the channels or patients. Binder also said the money falls to the bottom line. |
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