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Post by peppy on Nov 29, 2022 11:36:05 GMT -5
I think peppy was actually referring to my hair. But you could be right about that, and hopefully also about the hedge fund speculation. And zephyr: good word! Yes, I think you choose that avatar to be irritating. My chief complaint, arthropod. Your plan worked, I complain about it regularly from time to time as you know. |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 29, 2022 12:50:31 GMT -5
I can neither confirm nor deny that allegation without conferring with my attorney, Hopingandwilling, Esq.
Arthropod?! I resemble that remark 😆
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Post by hopingandwilling on Nov 29, 2022 15:17:25 GMT -5
Cretin--when you refer to me as your counselor and put Esquire after my name--FYI--most of my friends and my "clients" call me Shade Tree.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 29, 2022 17:00:02 GMT -5
For centuries, poets have eulogized Zephyrus, the Greek god of the west wind, and his "swete breeth" (in the words of Geoffrey Chaucer). Zephyrus, the personified west wind, eventually evolved into zephyr, a word for a breeze that is westerly or gentle, or both. Breezy zephyr blew into English with the help of poets and playwrights, including William Shakespeare, who used the word in his play Cymbeline: "Thou divine Nature, thou thyself thou blazon'st / In these two princely boys! They are as gentle / As zephyrs blowing below the violet."
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 29, 2022 19:20:10 GMT -5
Cretin--when you refer to me as your counselor and put Esquire after my name--FYI--most of my friends and my "clients" call me Shade Tree. Ah, you’re my kind of lawyer. Where I’m from, any attorney with a nickname like that is glad to accept payment via barter in lieu of dollars. We’ve got chickens, goats, eggs, home grown veggies (and other herbaceous matter), plenty of goods to exchange for legal services. |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Nov 29, 2022 20:38:24 GMT -5
Cretin--when you refer to me as your counselor and put Esquire after my name--FYI--most of my friends and my "clients" call me Shade Tree. Ah, you’re my kind of lawyer. Where I’m from, any attorney with a nickname like that is glad to accept payment via barter in lieu of dollars. We’ve got chickens, goats, eggs, home grown veggies (and other herbaceous matter), plenty of goods to exchange for legal services. That's the best form of payment. Chickens, sheep, pigs etc maintain their value while the paper curren y only foes down in value. |
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Post by peppy on Nov 29, 2022 20:47:08 GMT -5
Ah, you’re my kind of lawyer. Where I’m from, any attorney with a nickname like that is glad to accept payment via barter in lieu of dollars. We’ve got chickens, goats, eggs, home grown veggies (and other herbaceous matter), plenty of goods to exchange for legal services. That's the best form of payment. Chickens, sheep, pigs etc maintain their value while the paper currency only goes down in value. Driving up to hopingandwilling place with goods for legal services. Garage or front yard? This is the way you do it cretin11?  |
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Post by bones1026 on Nov 29, 2022 23:07:52 GMT -5
Ah, you’re my kind of lawyer. Where I’m from, any attorney with a nickname like that is glad to accept payment via barter in lieu of dollars. We’ve got chickens, goats, eggs, home grown veggies (and other herbaceous matter), plenty of goods to exchange for legal services. That's the best form of payment. Chickens, sheep, pigs etc maintain their value while the paper curren y only foes down in value. Curious to the deletion of my question to Cretin about his stocktwits account....Wrong thread I guess..🤔..I was simply asking why his avatars seem so diff? |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Nov 30, 2022 6:49:17 GMT -5
I think Peppy is saying there have been too many "lousy" posts of late. Seems too early to lock a thread on such an interesting topic. The share price is climbing on a zephyr of volume. This and the latest flat SIR makes me wonder if maybe the speculation there are hedge funds meandering over to a longer position might be correct. I assume some portion of the convertible debt might evaporate as a consequence. Thoughts? Nice try at pulling this discussion back on topic, prc. I'll try to help you with that. Sorry for stating the obvious, but MNKD can't very well remove any debt until they start making a profit. And, of course, if they used their profit proceeds to pay off debt, well, there goes the profit again. Which just conjures the oft-quelled (did someone mention Shakespeare?) realization that our frequent discussion of "when MNKD will become profitable" neglects the debt that must be paid off before they really become profitable. So, although its probably safe to say that most companies operate with some amount of debt, just to help manage their cash-flow, it's comforting to think of MNKD as dissolving all of their debt at some future time. You know, to become a financially-stable and desirable company to encourage people to invest their money in and drive up the stock price. So, crap! Just as MNKD starts getting to that elusive goal of breakeven (what? one year ... maybe even slipping to two years down the road), at some point, the goalpost must be moved to focus on paying off the $272,546,000 debt. Wow, the thought of that is disconcerting. That's a LOT of debt! "Well, Jane, it just goes to show you, it's always something — if it's not one thing, it's another." What? I'm showing my age by quoting SNL from the 70's? ... OK, "Nevermind!" Ha! While we're at it ... Retirement? Nevermind! |
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Post by anderson on Nov 30, 2022 8:37:45 GMT -5
$230 mil notes can convert at $5.21. So if share price goes above $5.21 before 1 DEC 2025 there shouldn't be a problem with the $230 debt, just dilution from the conversion which should not surprise anyone. $8.8 mil Mann Group can convert $2.50, so these will be converted. $40 mil Midcap. This is the bad one. "The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments." So the Midcap loan actually ties up $50 million more than is needed to repay it since Afrezza net revenue is not on target. Midcap has an interest cap of 8.5% so if Mannkind can invest and get returns greater than that it isn't a problem. It also has early termination fees, which drop to the min of 1% after April 22, 2023. Loan repayments start September 1, 2023, until paid in full on August 1, 2025. So Mannkind will probably just pay back as scheduled, unless they get in a bind and need to drop below the $90 mil reserve. This also explains why they are not spending a lot of cash.
So at current burn 14.4 mil a quarter (177.8-90)/14.4 = 6 quarters at current burn before we go below the 90 mil.
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 30, 2022 12:00:19 GMT -5
Can anybody see one of our pipeline assets warranting a partnership that brings in enough to pay off our debt?
CF?
NTM?
RLS?
Heck, Afrezza once we have trial data and pediatric approval?
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Post by cjm18 on Nov 30, 2022 12:23:43 GMT -5
Can anybody see one of our pipeline assets warranting a partnership that brings in enough to pay off our debt? CF? NTM? RLS? Heck, Afrezza once we have trial data and pediatric approval? Wouldn’t all the drugs in the pipeline require partnership? None are sold to endos? |
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 30, 2022 12:45:07 GMT -5
Can anybody see one of our pipeline assets warranting a partnership that brings in enough to pay off our debt? CF? NTM? RLS? Heck, Afrezza once we have trial data and pediatric approval? Wouldn’t all the drugs in the pipeline require partnership? None are sold to endos? Exactly my point. We’ve got big things coming. Maybe not one single deal worth the whole of our debt, but we aren’t going to have to wait 3 years for it. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Nov 30, 2022 14:27:13 GMT -5
$230 mil notes can convert at $5.21. So if share price goes above $5.21 before 1 DEC 2025 there shouldn't be a problem with the $230 debt, just dilution from the conversion which should not surprise anyone. $8.8 mil Mann Group can convert $2.50, so these will be converted. $40 mil Midcap. This is the bad one. "The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments." So the Midcap loan actually ties up $50 million more than is needed to repay it since Afrezza net revenue is not on target. Midcap has an interest cap of 8.5% so if Mannkind can invest and get returns greater than that it isn't a problem. It also has early termination fees, which drop to the min of 1% after April 22, 2023. Loan repayments start September 1, 2023, until paid in full on August 1, 2025. So Mannkind will probably just pay back as scheduled, unless they get in a bind and need to drop below the $90 mil reserve. This also explains why they are not spending a lot of cash.
So at current burn 14.4 mil a quarter (177.8-90)/14.4 = 6 quarters at current burn before we go below the 90 mil.
Yeah, darn, we just talked about paying some of that debt off with dilution, and I didn't even think of that when I posted - ugh, short-term memory problem? what short-term memory? Anyway, it's great to have other posters keep me straight. That's a great analysis summary, Anderson. I'm not sure what you mean by the Mann Group converting $2.50. What is $2.50? Do you mean MNKD dilutes at $2.50/share no matter what the current stock price is at conversion time? The burn rate in your calculation will be eased as more revenue starts to flow in. That will help. Thanks again, anderson. |
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Post by anderson on Dec 1, 2022 11:16:04 GMT -5
$230 mil notes can convert at $5.21. So if share price goes above $5.21 before 1 DEC 2025 there shouldn't be a problem with the $230 debt, just dilution from the conversion which should not surprise anyone. $8.8 mil Mann Group can convert $2.50, so these will be converted. $40 mil Midcap. This is the bad one. "The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments." So the Midcap loan actually ties up $50 million more than is needed to repay it since Afrezza net revenue is not on target. Midcap has an interest cap of 8.5% so if Mannkind can invest and get returns greater than that it isn't a problem. It also has early termination fees, which drop to the min of 1% after April 22, 2023. Loan repayments start September 1, 2023, until paid in full on August 1, 2025. So Mannkind will probably just pay back as scheduled, unless they get in a bind and need to drop below the $90 mil reserve. This also explains why they are not spending a lot of cash.
So at current burn 14.4 mil a quarter (177.8-90)/14.4 = 6 quarters at current burn before we go below the 90 mil.
Yeah, darn, we just talked about paying some of that debt off with dilution, and I didn't even think of that when I posted - ugh, short-term memory problem? what short-term memory? Anyway, it's great to have other posters keep me straight. That's a great analysis summary, Anderson. I'm not sure what you mean by the Mann Group converting $2.50. What is $2.50? Do you mean MNKD dilutes at $2.50/share no matter what the current stock price is at conversion time? The burn rate in your calculation will be eased as more revenue starts to flow in. That will help. Thanks again, anderson. Mann group has a $2.50 per share for conversion price so $8.8mil/$2.5=3.52 million shares. Which if they sold all those today would be $16.2 which is ~85% gain on investment. The senior convertible notes have a $5.21 conversion price, so we are getting closer. |
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