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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 22, 2023 14:59:42 GMT -5
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Post by brentie on Oct 31, 2023 6:36:23 GMT -5
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Post by neil36 on Oct 31, 2023 7:28:47 GMT -5
He’s not wrong to point out the very long list of partnerships that have amounted to nothing (RLS, BIOMM, NRx, Thirona for example). It’s a long and ugly list
But he really is getting out over his skis to suggest that UTHR is on the brink of pulling the rug out from under MNKD. He also suggests that Afrezza will never sell enough to cover its costs. I think he is wrong on both of those points
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 31, 2023 7:37:18 GMT -5
I don't really see anything new in that article. I do see some errors though which make me wonder about the accuracy of the parts I am less familiar with. UTHR absolutely will take over manufacturing for Tyvaso-DPI (I though they had already talked about that), but doing so has zero impact on the royalty stream. I don't see how LFD reaches the conclusion that UTHR can use Technosphere without that royalty. |
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Post by mango on Oct 31, 2023 11:04:46 GMT -5
Liars rely on mixing a little truth in with their lies to give the impression they know what they’re talking about and what they are saying is reliable.
LFD has always filled his so-called articles with inaccuracies and misinformation. I attempted to dissect a couple once and after spending a couple hours with tons of notes and sources detailing misinformation and sometimes made up information, I gave up. It was too much a chore and precisely the reason why he/she does it. People just don’t have the time to go through every point and fact check.
I highly doubt anyone with sound reason and common sense would take investment advice from this clown anyways.
Looking for Diogenes is also a Liquidia investor (says so in the article) which also makes you wonder about the i’ll intent and reason for the “article” in the first place (nefarious intent).
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 31, 2023 11:54:20 GMT -5
Some thoughts on LFD's latest annoying article:
LFD discloses being long LQDA.
The article speculates UTHR could take over manufacturing of Tyvaso-DPI, but we have known this. It's a glaring omission not to mention the royalty stream we get from Tyvaso-DPI. That doesn't disappear even if UTHR takes over manufacturing (unless they buy it out which wouldn't be cheap).
The two points above support a bias of LFD against MNKD, which surprises nobody.
However, what's really annoying is that much of the article is a factual rundown of our failed initiatives. It's not pleasant to see them listed one after another. Most painful obviously is Afrezza. LFD wrote many articles back in the day predicting Afrezza would not gain traction. Most of us here ridiculed LFD and strenuously disagreed, but we were wrong and LFD was right about that (which sucks to type).
It's 2023, almost a decade since Afrezza approval. Mango used to post a list of upcoming potential events on the MNKD horizon. Our CEOs used to speak in terms of how many new drugs would be introduced on the TechnoSphere platform and how often (was it one per year, or one every two years? I can't recall exactly). After the UTHR deal over five years ago, who would've believed in 2023 we'd still be waiting for another one? It is not bashing or FUD to point out this horse race is not going as we hoped, and to ask is it the horse (TechnoSphere) or the jockey, or both, that is the problem? After so many years we can't reasonably blame it all on our old favorite scapegoats: Margaret Hamburg, Martin Shkreli, Olivier Brandicourt, naked shorts, paid bashers et al.
It's not all bad, as thanks to Tyvaso-DPI we are not discussing bankruptcy and instead we are nearing CFBE. But the bar has been lowered so much in terms of our share price and what we all used to speculate. We now have longtime posters here - and clearly not "fake longs" - stating they'd jump at a buyout in the $10 range i.e. $2 RS adjusted. It's been a long tough road and I'd love to see it lead to the promised land, but my opinion is change is needed to get there. I'm not ready to accept the alternative that TechnoSphere is a fraud.
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Post by castlerockchris on Oct 31, 2023 15:46:16 GMT -5
Cretin, I hear and feel your pain. The list of failures for MNKD is very long, but so was Thomas Edison's prior to finally getting the light bulb technology right. It is my belief that, like Edison's, our trail and error efforts with regard to TechnoSphere will be well rewarded. The MNKD team has clearly learned and is leveraging that learning. By way of example I would reference the use of nebulizers in drug approval by both UTHR and MNKD and then after approval move to TechnoSphere. It would appear getting a drug approved using TechnoSphere is more costly or difficult than approved with the use of a nebulizer. Plus it will take up manufacturing capacity which is at a premium at the moment. If I am correct in this assumption, using the nebulizer for approval offers a faster path to revenue (easier dosing during trail, less margin for user error, etc.) and then adding the approval of TechnoSphere after the fact improves either outcomes or makes using the drug more convenient and easy. Thus allowing for new patents to protect the revenue stream longer and greater acceptance by doctors and patients.
I suppose I should also use more caution when I say I will jump if someone makes us a significant offer for the company or the stock price hits $11.XX. Rather I should say we will sell a significant portion of our holdings - roughly 40% should that happen in the next 12 - 18 months. The reality for me is that we have been in this stock much, much longer than I would have thunk, way prior to Afrezza approval, given the returns on a pure stock basis. I have been able to justify holding on due to our ability to loan shares at interest rates well about 35% back in the day, and by selling calls at reasonable premiums. The bottom line is our cost basis is $1.80. So at $11.50 that would give us roughly a 540% return and we would be fools not to unload a significant portion of our holdings. We have a very measured reduction in holdings plan that will take place over the next 8 years was certain milestones are hit, at the end of which MNKD will make up a roughly 5 - 8% of our portfolio.
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 31, 2023 17:54:36 GMT -5
I think you’re right about TechnoSphere being legit, and I hope we can enjoy the rewards (whether by current management or the next regime). And good job using covered calls and share lending to lower that cost basis!
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Post by JEvans on Oct 31, 2023 18:50:25 GMT -5
I don't really see anything new in that article. I do see some errors though which make me wonder about the accuracy of the parts I am less familiar with. UTHR absolutely will take over manufacturing for Tyvaso-DPI (I though they had already talked about that), but doing so has zero impact on the royalty stream. I don't see how LFD reaches the conclusion that UTHR can use Technosphere without that royalty. I also thought that MNKD had the patent on making the dry powder formulations and therefore we'd always get royalties and manufacture revenue no matter whos making it. Which is why Mike doesn't seem to be bothered that UTHR is building their own manufacturing plant. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 31, 2023 21:15:34 GMT -5
From Bill to me…. “I’ve read some of this guy’s stuff over the years. I don’t find him highly credible. On the surface his analysis seems compelling but I always find his writing, grammar and syntax to be low-level which leads me to discount what he says.”
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 31, 2023 22:22:12 GMT -5
From Bill to me…. “I’ve read some of this guy’s stuff over the years. I don’t find him highly credible. On the surface his analysis seems compelling but I always find his writing, grammar and syntax to be low-level which leads me to discount what he says.” Hmm, kinda reminds me of another writer. Come to think of it, I’ve never seen LFD in the same room as Na… ah never mind, it couldn’t be, could it?… 🤣 |
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Post by hellodolly on Nov 1, 2023 15:20:29 GMT -5
A nice reply Cut and Paste:
@bobstert Some have been holding for quite some time and frankly, their positions are much better than they had been going back to the all time 52W low of .66 on May 01, 2017. Since then the SP has risen 544%. If you were an investor getting in around or before 2017 and you could DCA to say $2.48 (the current median price between .66 and as of close on 10.31.23 the day of this publication) your returns would be 12.17%. Investors did even better if they entered closer to 2020, through much of the turmoil surrounding the love-hate relationships (accurate, but nothing new I might add) postulated by the writer, with MNKD and their attempts to find ways to develop an area of growth either through small scale bolt on acquisitions and partnerships.
If you were an investor getting in around the Mar 02, 2020 low, the SP has risen 436%.
For discussion, using the same exercise illustrated above for 2017, if you DCA with the current median price of $2.55 (between .80 and as of close on 10.31.23 the day of this publication), investors are up 68% / 3 years (20-23) = 22.68%.
I'm not sure if you've noticed the huge out flows of billions and billions of dollars from the biotech sector over the last three years. I follow this space very closely, have investments in clinical stage, early commercial stage and small cap biotechs in general. The last three years have been the worst I've ever seen for investors in this space. Everyday, we witness small cap biotechs getting delisting notices, filing for bankruptcy, market caps annihilated, reverse splits, toxic funding announcements and the list goes on.
One thing this article failed to mention was the fact that through all this turmoil over the last three years, the challenges small cap biotech CEOs are facing and the decisions they face as to whether they keep the doors open or send their employees packing, MNKD not only has been able to maintain their market cap, their leadership, their employees and still see growth in SP and "revenue". Yes, revenue growth, another fact left out of the article. MNKD is finally at the precipice of cash flow break, even with the challenges they faced over the last three years, while others have been tossed into the heap of the biotech wasteland.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 1, 2023 16:22:50 GMT -5
Pretty good reply, but that writer does the same thing as LFD by cherry picking info, for example quoting the share price of $0.66 as if that was a realistic price anyone actually got. That day we opened at 80 cents and closed at 86 cents, we were at 0.66 for literally a few seconds. That skews all his percentages. But LFD slants his articles too, so it's fair game when replying to him. They both make their points even if they stretch to make them. It is true we're better off now than we were on May 1, 2017. But somebody could cherry pick a slightly earlier date, say March 21, 2016 when we hit $11.20. We'd need a 180% premium today to reach that share price. $100,000 dollars invested that day in MNKD is worth about $32,000 today over seven years later.
His main point relies upon long time investors having to aggressively DCA over the years to make this investment not quite so crappy. That is true, and the same can be said for selling covered calls and lending shares. Many of us here have employed all those strategies and will probably continue to do so.
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Post by hellodolly on Nov 1, 2023 18:04:51 GMT -5
Pretty good reply, but that writer does the same thing as LFD by cherry picking info, for example quoting the share price of $0.66 as if that was a realistic price anyone actually got. That day we opened at 80 cents and closed at 86 cents, we were at 0.66 for literally a few seconds. That skews all his percentages. But LFD slants his articles too, so it's fair game when replying to him. They both make their points even if they stretch to make them. It is true we're better off now than we were on May 1, 2017. But somebody could cherry pick a slightly earlier date, say March 21, 2016 when we hit $11.20. We'd need a 180% premium today to reach that share price. $100,000 dollars invested that day in MNKD is worth about $32,000 today over seven years later. His main point relies upon long time investors having to aggressively DCA over the years to make this investment not quite so crappy. That is true, and the same can be said for selling covered calls and lending shares. Many of us here have employed all those strategies and will probably continue to do so. Yes, my favorite is the last two paragraphs about the sector over the last few years. At least the attempt was made to average the cost between 2017, 2020 and the close on October 31. I noticed the very high % increase from the lows in 2017 and 2020, and the huge difference that average makes. I probably should have posted the reason for the original reply I found in SA. Another reader suggests holding this since 2012 and being up 80% was nothing to brag about as it averaged a paltry 5% return. That sounds about right, too. |
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Post by ktim on Nov 7, 2023 22:05:09 GMT -5
Turns out surgeons can implant inspire into your chest and inspire is capable of monitoring breathing, and putting out a charge of sorts to move the back of the tongue forward with every breath. That's a shocking new product. |
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